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Energy demand from economic growth in other parts of the world will still lead to strong oil demand
As countries around the world prepare to hold another climate summit in Glasgow next month, the OPEC Oil Cartel reminded that in their view, crude oil will continue to be the main source of energy in the coming decades, especially in the world. Countries that are not wealthy seek higher growth and living standards.
OPEC said that more electric vehicles on the road and the promotion of alternative energy and renewable energy will indeed usher in an era of declining oil demand in rich countries.
But OPEC stated in its annual World Oil Outlook on Tuesday that by 2045, the energy needs of expanding economies in other parts of the world will still make oil the world’s largest energy source.
The report said: “This year’s WOO clearly shows that after a sharp decline in 2020, energy and oil demand will rebound significantly in 2021, and it is expected to continue to expand in the long-term.”
“Between 2020 and 2045, the global primary energy demand is expected to increase by 28%, and all energy demand will be boosted because the global economy is expected to double in size by 2045 and the global population will increase by approximately 1.7 billion.”
According to the organization, only the use of coal will decrease, while the demand for other energy sources will increase, but this share will shift to a larger proportion of renewable energy, nuclear energy and natural gas.
This 340-page report outlines the future of declining demand for oil in wealthy countries belonging to the 38-member Organization for Economic Development and Cooperation, as efforts to combat climate change appear in the form of renewable energy and alternative fuels for automobiles, aircraft And steamship.
It predicts that by the end of the reporting time frame in 2045, the number of vehicles in the world will increase by 1.1 billion to 2.6 billion-500 million of which will be electric, accounting for 20% of all vehicles.
However, OPEC’s report stated that the growing population and expanding middle class in other parts of the world, including China and India, will mean increased demand for oil from 2020 to 2045, although most of the growth will occur in The early stage of the period. The Secretariat in Vienna said.
By 2045, oil will meet 28.1% of the world’s energy demand, which is lower than 30% in 2020—but ahead of natural gas’s 24.4% and coal’s 17.4%. The rest are hydropower, nuclear and biomass energy, as well as other renewable energy sources such as wind and solar energy.
A key reason for the decline in energy use in the more developed world is the demographic structure: a shrinking population and an aging population have led to a slowdown in economic growth.
The report pointed out that people are becoming more aware of the need to accelerate action to combat climate change, and therefore formulated ambitious new policy intentions to achieve net zero emissions by 2050.
The European Union, the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Brazil have proposed a road map to achieve the new goals.
However, OPEC pointed out that “there is considerable doubt as to whether all these ambitious climate mitigation commitments will be met within the proposed time frame.”
For example, the European Union formulated a package plan suitable for 55 countries in July, in which the European Union of 27 countries pledged to reduce emissions by 55% from 1990 levels by 2030.
OPEC stated that the plan “is still a plan for the time being, and all EU member states still need to negotiate and agree, leaving plenty of room for exceptions and dilution.”
The United Kingdom will host the 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference in Glasgow, Scotland from October 31st to November 12th. At that time, leaders of all countries will seek ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit global temperature rise.
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