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Although Afghans finally see stability for the first time in decades, they are now facing a major humanitarian and development disaster. To prevent this outcome, all stakeholders in Afghanistan and the international community must initiate a dialogue on how to provide assistance to the troubled Afghan people.
Although the country has made significant progress in development over the past 20 years, its humanitarian situation was already dire even before the Taliban took over in August. Since then, most humanitarian activities have ceased, bringing Afghanistan closer to the edge.
In recent weeks, Afghanistan’s healthcare system has been described as “on the verge of collapse”. The World Food Program warned that only 5% of households in Afghanistan have enough food. The United Nations predicts that in the next fiscal year, its gross domestic product will shrink by 3.6% to 13.2%. If no measures are taken, The country will face Close to “general poverty”, the poverty rate has risen to 97-98%.
In response to these multifaceted challenges, at the Geneva conference on September 13, donors Commitment of more than 1 billion U.S. dollars Help Afghanistan. Although this is 30% higher than the emergency assistance requested by the United Nations, it pales in comparison with the US$300 million in military expenditures per day in the past 20 years. Despite the promises made, most of the promises could not be used due to the deadlock between the Taliban and the international community.
Since mid-August, Afghanistan has been unable to obtain the much-needed resources to meet urgent humanitarian and development challenges. Currently, Afghan national institutions are facing a financial crisis. U.S. government’s decision Freeze nearly 9.5 billion U.S. dollars of central bank assets of US financial institutions.
Because of the unstable impact of this move on the banking system and lack of funds, the country may be forced to rely on remittances through the Hawala system and traditional forms of lending and bartering to survive. These forms of informal transactions are usually related to criminal activities, money laundering and terrorist financing.
Back in August, when Kabul fell, I thought The disaster in Afghanistan is avoidableThis requires both the Taliban and the West to express their expectations and set clear and measurable goals for progress-and this is still the case today. When formulating the path forward for international cooperation to prevent humanitarian disasters in Afghanistan, all relevant stakeholders should pay attention to the following important information.
First, the Taliban must overcome their instinctive rejection of the West. Despite the great temptation and desire for revenge, its leadership must also ensure that humanitarian aid will not be diverted to its fighters and will not be used to put pressure on the international community at any time.
In the extensive consultations with Western diplomats in the past month, I made it clear that the vast majority of Western governments do not want the Taliban to fail. Taking into account the large-scale immigration, terrorist threats, and the risk of a revival in the drug trade, Western powers did not try to undermine the Afghan state, but regarded a stable Afghanistan as their strategic self-interest. Although no government is eager to recognize the Taliban, the need for some form of cooperation with the organization has been widely recognized.
The Taliban may think that non-recognition is a kind of negligence, but they should be aware that Western governments are constrained by their own voters, who are shocked by media reports of human rights violations and abuse of women and minorities.
Second, major Western donors should realize that business as usual will not work in Afghanistan today. Countries under the leadership of the Taliban government are very different from post-disaster or national collapse areas. In these areas, the United Nations and other agencies can step in to provide assistance outside the national framework.
Regardless of whether it is internationally recognized, the Afghan government operates within the Afghan country and its national institutions, which have been established over the past 20 years with a lot of resources and efforts. They may have some defects and suffer corruption, but they work.
However, large-scale development without the involvement of state institutions is unlikely to proceed. There is an urgent need to explore potential ways to coordinate so that some form of development assistance can be carried out without full recognition of the de facto Taliban government.
Education and health are two departments that Western aid can establish communication and coordination channels with the Taliban without formal recognition. National institutions with a record of effective cooperation are in place, with an extensive network of community governance structures, non-governmental organizations, and private companies that can lead the development of society as a whole. One example is the Citizens’ Charter, which replaced the National Solidarity Program, one of the nation’s largest and most successful community reconstruction programs.
International assistance is essential to build rather than replace local capabilities. The Taliban lack the resources, knowledge and skills to effectively govern Afghanistan on their own. Funding local priorities, using untapped resources, and investing in the development of local capacity and public administration will build confidence and make the Taliban more cooperative.
Although 120,000 people have fled Afghanistan, including many highly skilled and educated people, there are still a large number of experts and workers who can mobilize for development projects. The “brain drain” following the recent withdrawal should not be used by internationals as an excuse to continue long-term and harmful human resource import practices.
Third, life-saving humanitarian assistance should not be used as a bargaining chip to win political concessions. The West often tries to use humanitarian aid as a lever against the Taliban. This counterproductive approach must be avoided at all costs to prevent the Taliban from taking desperate measures to establish close relationships with non-traditional donors who are unable to effectively support Afghanistan’s development.
Western donors should recognize that there are important political dynamics within the Taliban that affect their decision-making. In particular, there are disagreements between the military leaders and the political or peaceful factions that negotiate with the United States in Doha. Over time, lack of contact with the Taliban will only strengthen the position of hardline military elements. If the West does not modify its practices, Afghanistan can easily become a hotbed of regional and global insecurity and a boom in the drug trade.
In short, humanitarian aid is one of the only common languages in Kabul and the West today. All parties have a strong willingness to communicate, but lack an effective medium for dialogue. A direct step in the right direction is to establish an independent committee of nationally respected Afghans who can act as intermediaries and facilitate communication between the Taliban and external parties. At first, this will lead to a common understanding of the provision of life-saving assistance, and over time it can open up the West’s potential for constructive engagement with the Taliban on a range of other issues.
Direct or indirect dialogue is essential not only to prevent humanitarian crises but also to increase opportunities to work on a global scale in a more effective manner Humanitarian-development-peace relations.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.
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