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Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan fired three central bank policymakers on Thursday, two of whom were deemed opposed to the last interest rate cut, paving the way for further easing of policy and pushing the lira to a record low.
Analysts believe that this move—announced in the official gazette at midnight—is new evidence of Erdogan’s political interference, Erdogan, who calls himself an enemy of interest rates, and often calls for monetary stimulus measures.
The communiqué stated that Erdogan had no explanation for the decision and fired Deputy Governors Semi Tumin and Ugur Namik Kukuk, as well as members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) who have served the longest. Abdullah Yavas.
He appointed two new members-Taha Kakmak as deputy, and Yusuf Tuna-they are little known among the central bank or economists. After years of reforms by the president, the currency The policy committee has little monetary policy experience.
Two sources familiar with internal deliberations said that Kucuk and Yavas were dismissed after they disagreed with a 100 basis point rate cut last month, which surprised investors at the time and caused the currency to plummet.
On Thursday, the lira fell 1% against the US dollar to an all-time low of 9.1900, before regaining lost ground.
Since the beginning of this year, the currency has depreciated by about 19%, mainly due to the damage to the credibility of the central bank, as well as investors and depositors’ concerns about premature interest rate cuts when inflation rises to nearly 20%.
Arda Tunca, economist at Eko Faktoring, said: “The lira has lost institutional support in recent years… Last night’s changes strongly indicate that the central bank no longer has the ability to manage Turkey’s monetary policy.”
He added that the combination of monetary policy and financial regulation has made “the Turkish economy extremely vulnerable”.
Last month, the central bank lowered the policy rate to 18% as Erdogan (who fell in opinion polls and eager to boost credit and exports) was publicly seeking. Most analysts say that easing policies are wrong at a time when global inflation is accelerating.
turn around
The presidential palace said on Wednesday evening that Erdogan met with the governor of the central bank Sahap Kavcioglu and posted a picture of the two together, after which the Monetary Policy Committee underwent an overhaul.
This marks a report by Reuters last week citing three sources that Erdogan has lost confidence in Kavsioglu, and the two have barely communicated in recent weeks.
According to a person familiar with the matter, despite the rapid turnover of MPC this year, Kavcioglu has promoted changes in recent days.
“Kavcioglu cleared the way for new members to cut interest rates faster,” the person said.
Erdogan appointed Kavcioglu as governor in March.
In a little over two years, Erdogan suddenly fired three bank governors due to policy differences. This was a dizzying political intervention that severely affected the credibility and predictability of the bank.
A foreign investor said on Thursday: “Without a good explanation, firing central bank officials in the middle of the night is not a way to build the credibility of the central bank or enhance market confidence.”
Turkey’s headline inflation reached a two-and-a-half-year high of 19.58% in September, and Kavcioglu’s core indicator has been emphasized last month at 16.98%.
Internal opposition
In a speech to the parliamentary committee this week, Kavcioglu said that the September rate cut was not a surprise and had nothing to do with the subsequent lira sell-off.
The bank’s next policy-making meeting will be held on October 21, when interest rates may be cut again.
According to the JP Morgan Chase EMBI Global Diversity Index, the market’s response to Thursday’s changes included a premium increase in investor holdings of Turkish Treasury bonds relative to safe-haven U.S. Treasury bonds. It touched 521 basis points, the highest level since April, and the spread is higher than that of Ukraine and Kenya.
The second source in a social conversation with Reuters said that both Kukuk and Yavas, who missed the September policy meeting, opposed some recent bank decisions.
The source stated that Kukuk also opposed the use of banks’ foreign exchange reserves to support the unorthodox policy of the lira through state-owned bank sales between 2019 and 2020, adding that Kukuk had warned the Monetary Policy Committee that it has now failed to maintain interest rates at A sufficiently high level will only lead to higher interest rates in the future.
The new deputy governor Cakmak has served as the deputy chairman of Turkey’s BDDK banking supervisory authority from 2019. Previously, he held positions at the state-owned bank Ziraat Bank, including the head of human resources.
Tuna is another employee of MPC. He is a professor and served as a member of the management committee of BDDK from 2003 to 2009.
Commerzbank analyst Antje Praefcke said: “It can be assumed that the newly appointed members of the central bank committee will support the monetary policy of Kavsioglu and Erdogan.” “This does not bode well for the Turkish lira.”
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