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Muqtada al-Sadr remains one of the most influential political figures in Iraq and plays a pivotal role in the country’s future. He is currently considered a king maker, but it is not clear whether he can form a stable government.
In the most recent election, Sadr’s party won 70 out of a total of 329 parliamentary seats—a significant increase from the 2018 results, when his movement won 54 seats.
Despite this election result, Sadr did not run as a candidate for the prime minister of Iraq.
Ruba Ali Hasani, a postdoctoral researcher at Lancaster University and the SEPAD project, told Al Jazeera that the reason is relatively simple and is based on Sadr’s political strategy.
“Sadr’s strategy to remain a follower is that he claims to be a reformer. Using this claim, he supports Tishreen/October Movement A few months, until Iran called on him to withdraw this support,” Hasani said.
“His mistake in this matter may have caused him to lose some followers, but in most cases, his followers are blindly loyal and truly believe in his image as a reformer. On this basis, I can It is seen that Sadr avoids being prime minister in order to maintain his reform propositions. His party is also strategic in its coalition. In the 2018 elections, it allied with the Communist Party of Iraq to maintain this reform title.”
Hasani added: “Considering that he had Sadris in his previous cabinet as ministers such as the very deteriorating Ministry of Health, and at the same time claiming to carry out reforms, this is totally ironic.”
However, the issues surrounding his role did not have a major impact on his popularity.
“By falsely claiming to boycott the election at the end of the summer, he won the bargaining chip because all politicians seeking legitimacy in the election need him to participate. This is a wise move, so when Sadr officially’rejoins’ the election, we Understand that he never really intended to boycott because his party has been mobilizing through mobile apps, voter card registration, etc. during this period,” said Al-Hasani.
Hasani pointed out that although Sadr’s party has won the most seats and is therefore capable of forming the next government, he still faces complex obstacles, especially ideological obstacles.
“Because some Iranian-backed parties, such as Fatah, threaten to use violence, unless they get the recounts they request, the formation of a government will be a challenge. Sadr has his own militia, Saraya Salam, and can Fighting with Iranian-backed PMF forces, but he would rather not. On the contrary, he has been calling for calmness.”
‘Take full responsibility’
In terms of what the government is most likely to look like, Al-Hassani particularly believes that a scenario is the most likely.
“Sadr is likely to need to reach an agreement with Fatah and his partners, albeit reluctantly. Having said that, he is more likely to form an alliance with him. [Nouri] Maliki, His former enemy. “
“No matter what happens next in Iraq, it needs to be approved by Sadr as in the past,” she added.
However, Sajad Giard, a researcher at Century International and director of the Shiite Political Working Group, told Al Jazeera that Sadr may or may not form any coalition, which may have an adverse effect on his own party.
“Sadr claims that the next government will be the Sadr government, and the prime minister will be a staunch Sadr government. This may become a reality, but other partners are needed to form the government. The risk of taking full responsibility for the failure of the government may mean that he Accept a coalition that lowers the government’s THAAD status,” he said.
‘Important foundation’
Sadr is the son of the Great Ayatollah Said Mohamed Mohamed Sadik Sadr. He is a Shiite politician who actively opposes the former leader Saddam Hussein politically. Paid the price of life in 1999.
“The Sadr faction base is very important in Baghdad and the southern provinces because it represents the Shiite lower class struggling during the previous government, but it regards Muhammad Sadr as a religious authority, and no one else dared to preach to them. They care about them and preach to them. Today, this base continues to be marginalized. Sadr calls on them as heirs to his father’s position, but they also consider him to be their voice against all other political and religious factions,” Giard Say.
In addition, Sadr is deeply integrated into the power structure of the Iraqi state. His confidant sits in a government office, serving as deputy minister and managerial position.
After the United States overthrew Saddam Hussein in 2003, Sadr and his supporters opposed the intervention forces. His supporters caused tragic losses to the U.S. military. As a result, Sadr became one of the most wanted criminals in Iraq.
In recent years, he has become increasingly opposed to Iran’s influence. “He did try to deviate from Iran’s goals in Iraq, but was influenced by Iran from time to time,” Hasani pointed out.
Therefore, Sadr does not seem to have a clear strategy for Iran in the future.
“We can expect Sadr to fail on some issues and keep his distance from Iran while still maintaining some contact with Iran. His influence lies in his unpredictability, which can be a psychological weapon against his political opponents. Of course. , Iran will find ways to influence the government formation process to ensure that parties like Fatah maintain power,” Hassini said.
Religious influence also played a role in Sadr’s popularity. Although Shia, he never rejects Sunnis and continues to advocate non-sectarian positions.
“Unlike Fatah and other parties, Sadr did not rely on sectarian speech in the campaign. Instead, he campaigned in a populist way to gain more support. His willingness to join forces in the cross-sect alliance gave him greater Status,” Hasani said.
Jiyad pointed out that despite this, Iraq’s political parties are still mainly sectarian, and new parties that focus on issues beyond identity may take many years to become dominant.
‘Two Player Games’
When he supported the demonstrators, Sadr also knew how to take advantage of the country’s protests.
He claims to be the gatekeeper of the people and a pioneer in the fight against oppression, corruption and other atrocities. All this gives him a high degree of legitimacy in the eyes of his followers. However, Al-Hassani said that there was also a two-player game here.
“During the Tishreen protests, his’deputy’ directly incited violence against the protesters in Nasiriyah and praised the violence afterwards. When we discuss today, we must not forget his treatment of activists and protesters. threat.
“Sadr is by no means innocent, nor is he a person of the people as he claims,” Hasani added.
With the violent suppression of the protests, the hope of ending corruption and related dissatisfaction also followed. The hope of a unified Iraq with a strong civil society has also been severely hit. All of this has contributed to increased turmoil in the country, but the root cause of the ongoing crisis is still elsewhere.
“What makes the situation turbulent is the violent actions of state and non-state armed groups: assassinations, kidnappings, and public murders of protesters in broad daylight. Iraq’s freedom of speech is seriously threatened. Many activists have to flee to Iraq’s Kurdish regions or Abroad. During the pandemic, there is a lack of employment opportunities, the medical system is deteriorating, and the infrastructure is deteriorating, not to mention the resulting social problems, such as domestic violence, drug addiction, and rising suicide rates,” Al said. -Hasani.
“Currently, volatility lies in the threat of violence and fear of escalation. It is up to political winners such as Sadr and behind-the-scenes political agreements to determine what will happen next,” she added.
No matter who becomes the new head of state in Iraq, it will be more difficult for Sadr and his party to move forward from the center of power—while positioning themselves as the leader of the anti-establishment movement. After all, governance means making decisions.
In addition, with the voter turnout rate of 41%, the democratic legitimacy of the new government seems to have been greatly weakened before it was formed.
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