Will UAE-Israel trade deal open doors for other Arab countries?

With the agreement, there will be more interaction between the two countries – more trade, more commerce and more travel. In fact, the norm that existed nearly 50 years after the UAE gained independence in 1971 – treating Israel and its citizens as pariahs – has been broken and will increase pressure on other Arab states to do the same.

The Israel-UAE Free Trade Agreement is another pioneering step in normalizing relations between Israel and its Arab neighbors, a process that has been going on for more than 40 years and has only recently achieved partial success. A peace treaty was signed with Egypt in the late 1970s, another with Jordan in 1994, followed by the only other free trade agreement with the Arab countries in 1995.

But beyond these specific events, the possibility of normalizing relations with the rest of the Arab world has been seen for decades as out of reach, if not impossible. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the lingering resentment surrounding the 1967 and 1973 wars have made relations between Israel and its neighbors hostile.

This is starting to change due to two factors. The first was the Oslo Accords signed in the mid-1990s, which failed to lead to a comprehensive peace agreement but did create the Palestinian Authority and lead to Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza. Second, an increasingly shared strategic view between Israel and the Gulf Arab states sees Iran as a serious threat to regional security.

Given the secretive nature of these meetings, it was still a sudden public turn when Israel, Bahrain, the UAE and the US signed the Abraham Accords in September 2020. The agreements demonstrate Israel’s desire to normalize relations with the two Arab states and breathe new life into the process. Sudan and Morocco also agreed to normalize relations with Israel within months, while rumors continued that Saudi Arabia may be considering a similar move.

So the role of the free trade agreement is to show that the initial series of investments and activities following the Abraham Accords – such as the opening of direct flights and the public celebration of Hanukkah in Emirati cities – will continue.

Inevitably there are agreements such as the Abraham Accords, and initial enthusiasm may wane as bureaucracy and public opinion prevent further improvements in the relationship. Meanwhile, Israel continues to build settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, doing little to ease its strategy of occupying the Palestinians.

But the trade deal shows that both Israel and the UAE are determined to cement the improvement and deepen the relationship between the two countries. Through the agreement, the goal is now to increase trade between the two countries more than 10-fold to $10 billion in just five years. This would make the UAE Israel’s top trading partner – only China and the US trade more with Israel in 2021.

However, the dynamism of Israel’s relationship with the UAE also highlights how other Arab states have dragged their feet on taking any further steps to improve relations with Israel, while others have avoided normalization altogether. Of the 28 countries that still do not recognize Israel, 15 are Arab League countries, including Saudi Arabia.

But it may take more pressure and motivation to get the Saudis on board. So even with the UAE leading the way, it remains unclear where and how fast other Arab countries are heading.

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Christian Le Miere is a guest contributor. Opinions expressed are personal.