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A classic car drives through the remnants of Hurricane Agatha on a flooded street in Havana, Cuba, on June 3. A Category 2 storm that formed in the Pacific Ocean became the first tropical storm of the season in the Atlantic Ocean as Alex.Photo by Ernesto Mastrascusa/EPA-EFE
AccuWeather Despite a long gap in tropical development over the Atlantic this summer, meteorologists continue to warn of a surge in tropical activity and an immediate threat to the southeastern U.S. as the core of the hurricane season looms.
Atlantic tropical activity has been slower this year than in recent seasons, and the basin has not seen a single hurricane since the season began on June 1.In fact, according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kotlowskiif there were no tropical storms or hurricanes in August, it would be the first since 1997 and the third since records began.
after tropical storm Alex, Bonnie and Colin, there has not been a single tropical depression or storm in the Atlantic since July 2. A system classified as a tropical storm by AccuWeather forecasters nearly formed over the western Gulf of Mexico during the second weekend of August, but it eventually moved over southern Texas before it could organize further.
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August typically marks a rapid increase in the number of tropical storms and hurricanes, and this trend typically continues into September, with the season’s climate peak on September 10. However, because the rise started later than average, Kotlowski’s team of tropical weather experts is fine-tuning the original forecast released earlier this spring.
AccuWeather meteorologists expect 16 named storms, including three that have already developed. The original forecast called for 16 to 20 named storms. The forecast for the number of hurricanes remains unchanged, with six to eight hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes expected this season.
“Our thinking has not changed because 2022 is still an active season,” Kotlowski said. “Our biggest concern is the high probability of a high-impact hurricane.”
Based on the 30-year average from 1991 to 2020, the normal number of named storms is 14, while the normal number of hurricanes in a season is about seven.
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Large areas of dry air and strong winds, known as wind shear It has persisted for most of this summer from the central Caribbean to the mid-Atlantic and eastern.These conditions create an environment too unfavorable for the development of tropical disturbances, called tropical waveusually moving westward from the coast of Africa.
Two tropical storms had immediate impact on the southeastern U.S. Although Alex was not officially named a tropical storm until it passed through Florida, the system brought downpour and flooding to parts of South Florida.
Tropical Storm Colin brought localized heavy rain and gusty thunderstorms to coastal areas of the Carolinas before dissipating.
high pressure over a large area, called Bermuda HighThat has weakened, Kottlowski explained, but is still expected to extend into the southeastern U.S. as frequently as last season.
“This could still push tropical activity towards the Caribbean and the US,” he said.
In early August, Kotlowski noted that conditions unfavorable for tropical waves are developing over Africa, and that “friendly” conditions for these tropical developments will drift over parts of the western Atlantic next week. Once that happens, the hitherto suppressed tropical waves may start to show more vigor due to less dry air and lower wind shear.
Initially, some of these evolving storms may bend over the mid-Atlantic and avoid the U.S., but that could also change as the season continues.
Jonathan Porter, chief meteorologist at AccuWeather, said: “We are impressed by the potential for a significant increase in tropical activity at the center of the hurricane season and the possibility of a prolonged season this year. ”
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