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Emirates NBD has raised its economic growth forecast for the UAE to 7% in 2022, bringing the country to the fastest pace of growth due to higher estimates of energy sector output and its “robust growth” in the non-oil sector. Annual expansion over a decade.
The latest revision by Dubai’s largest bank will be the highest since the economy grew 6.9% in 2011, compared with an earlier estimate of 5.7%.
The UAE economy is expected to grow by 5.4% in 2022 and 4.2% in 2023, after growing by 3.8% in 2021. Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates.
“The UAE economy has grown faster in both oil and non-oil sectors than we expected at the beginning of the year,” Khatija Haque, chief economist at UAE NBD, said on Wednesday.
“While we expect growth to have slowed this year, especially in the second half of the year, we have revised up our forecast for 2022.”
The upward revision came after the latest government economic indicators showed the UAE’s GDP grew by 8.4% year-on-year and the non-oil sector by 8.8% year-on-year. The UAE economy has rebounded strongly, driven by tourism, activity in the real estate sector and rising oil prices.
This UAE S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index It climbed to 56.7 in August from 55.4 in July, the fastest increase in non-oil business activity since June 2019.
In the first six months of this year, the UAE’s foreign trade exceeded AED1 trillion ($272 billion), compared with AED840 billion in the same period before the pandemic.
Revenue from the tourism industry exceeded Dh19 billion in the first half of this year, while the total number of hotel guests reached 12 million during the same period. Compared with the same period before the pandemic, the number of hotel guests increased by 42%.
In Dubai, the average Residential Property Prices A CBRE report found that house prices rose 10% in the year to June, with apartment prices rising nearly 9% on average and villas 19%. Dubai also saw the highest number of sales transactions in the past 12 years in July, Property Finder said.
Abu Dhabi recorded 7,474 real estate transactions It was worth more than AED22.51 billion in the first six months of this year.
Given the strength of the UAE’s economic rebound, Emirates NBD raised its 2022 non-oil sector GDP forecast to 4.7% from 4.1%.
In the first eight months of this year, crude oil production in the UAE increased by 13%, compared to full-year 2021 production, UAE NBD said.
“Plans to increase oil capacity … indicate increased investment in oil and gas infrastructure, which will support growth in the sector in the medium term, even if current production is cut by OPEC+ in the coming months,” Harker said. said the lady.
Emirates NBD now expects hydrocarbons GDP to grow by 13% in 2022, compared to a previous estimate of 10%.
Ms Haque said the UAE remains in a solid position despite a global economic slowdown due to high global inflation and other headwinds, as well as monetary tightening by central banks around the world.
“The UAE is in an enviable position of fiscal surplus – which we expect to remain so into 2023 – with a strong balance sheet.”
“This should allow the public sector to continue investing domestically to achieve its long-term strategic goals.”
Updated: September 28, 2022 11:48 AM
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