Orlene quickly strengthens to Category 4 and will attack Mexico

The storm is bringing heavy rain and gusty winds to parts of Mexico, AccuWeather forecasters said.Photo courtesy of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Orlene is located approximately 105 miles southwest of Cape Corrientes, Mexico, and 155 miles south of Las Marias Island, Mexico. It was moving north at 7 miles per hour.

A hurricane warning has been issued for Las Islas Marias and the coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas to Mazatlan. The coasts of the Mexican mainland from Playa Perula to San Blas and from Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaia are under the hurricane watch.

Over the next few days, Olin will continue close to Mexico’s southwest coast and make landfall Monday night, forecasters said. Orlene was the ninth Eastern Pacific hurricane of the season.

The impact on land began on Friday night, when Olin’s outer rainbands began sweeping across the coast of western Mexico. The storm is expected to continue to affect parts of western Mexico over the weekend.

“Sinaloa, Durango and Chihuahua are likely to see 2-4 inches of widespread rain,” said AccuWeather meteorologist Alex Da Silva.

Given Orlene’s compact nature, the maximum rainfall from the storm is expected to target areas along its path. In south-central Sinaloa and areas south of Puerto Vallarta, forecast 4-8 rainfall with 10 inches of AccuWeather Local StormMax™.

While these parts of Mexico are no strangers to rain, in just a few days, Orlene can unload nearly a month’s worth of rain in some areas. This amount of rainfall can quickly lead to flash flooding problems and the risk of mudslides in the highlands.

For example, the entire month of September in Mazatlan, Mexico typically sees just over 6.50 inches of rainfall. Matazlán is expected to receive at least 2-4 inches of widespread rainfall as Orlene approaches and tracks into the new week around the area.

Olin’s worst impact on Mexico will come over the weekend as the cyclone turns toward the coastline and begins to approach the country.

Wind gusts of 40-60 mph are expected in parts of Durango, Nayarit and Jalisco. Strong wind gusts of 60-80 mph are likely across large swaths of Sinaloa and parts of Durango.

Wind gusts of up to 80-100 mph are even possible along the coastline south of Mazatlan, Mexico. Winds can be higher in Islas Marías and 120 mph on the AccuWeather Local StormMax™.

Olin is expected to become a major hurricane as it approaches the coast later this weekend, but forecasters fear harsh conditions will cause the storm to lose a bit of wind strength before making landfall on Monday. Currently, the storm is expected to reach the mainland at Category 1 intensity, but stronger storms cannot be ruled out.

Considering the potential for heavy rainfall and damaging wind gusts, Orlene ranks first on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale of Hurricanes in Mexico.

The last time a hurricane ravaged the basin was in early September, when Hurricane Kay brought heavy rain to Mexico’s Baja Peninsula and caused severe flooding in parts of the American Southwest

While Orlene will take a very different path than Kay, forecasters say some of the moisture from the hurricane could spread to southwestern states over the next few days.

AccuWeather senior meteorologist Dan Pydynowski warned: “Orlene’s trajectory as it approaches Mexico will affect how much, if any, moisture enters the United States.”

Forecasters say winds in the mid-atmosphere will bring some of Olin’s moisture into parts of the Four Corners as early as Sunday. This moisture can add to downpours in any thunderstorm that the region manages to develop. Given the desert climate, any downpours could lead to dangerous flash flooding problems.