Reformists win in Bosnian elections, but change seems unlikely

Reformers campaigning on an anti-corruption platform look set to win a major election in Bosnia that could give them more sway over the direction of a country that has never been seen since 1992-95. fully recovered from sectarian warfare, and racial boundaries still exist.

Contenders Denis Besirovic and Zeliko Komsic are expected to win Bosnia and Croatia respectively in the three-way presidency, the first preliminary results released by Bosnia’s Central Election Commission showed.

The reformists, however, are likely to take the top job with Zelika Chijanovic from the most powerful Bosnian Serb party, the separatist and staunchly pro-Russian Girls’ Generation.

The West has often accused Moscow of trying to destabilize the country and the rest of the Balkans through its Serbian allies in the region.

Sunday’s vote came amid growing concerns that the Kremlin could try to reignite the conflict in Bosnia to divert attention from its campaign in Ukraine.

Elections include competition for three members of Bosnia’s common multi-ethnic presidency, a president in one of two highly autonomous segments, and parliamentary representatives at different levels of governance.

Bosnia’s institutional setup, often described as one of the most complex in the world, was introduced by a US-brokered peace deal that ended its three main ethnicities in the 1990s – Bosnian Muslim, Orthodox Serb and Catholic Croat war between men.

Under the terms of the agreement, Bosnia is divided into two highly independent entities — one run by Serbs and the other shared by Bosniacs and Croats — with broad autonomy but linked by a united multi-ethnic body .

All actions across the country require consensus from all three ethnic groups.

If the preliminary results hold, Ms Cvijanovic will take over from her party boss Milorad Dodik, who has chosen to run for the Bosnian Serb presidency rather than seek a joint nationwide presidency. two terms.

Both Mr Dodik and his main contender, Jelena Trivik, have declared victories in the Bosnian Serb presidential race.

Their claims will be put to the test later on Monday, when the electoral commission is expected to announce the preliminary results of the Bosnian Serb race for the presidency, as well as the candidatures for state, entity and regional parliamentary representatives.

Before the polls, analysts predicted that long-entrenched ethnic nationalists, who enriched cronies while ignoring the needs of the people, would continue to dominate the legislature at all levels, largely because of postwar sectarian governance The system leaves pragmatic, reform-minded Bosnians with little incentive to vote.

Sunday’s election turnout was down more than 50 percent or two percentage points from the 2018 election.

On Sunday, shortly after the count began, Bosnia’s international monitor, Christian Schmidt, announced in a YouTube video that he was making changes to the country’s electoral laws “to ensure the functionality and timely implementation of election results.” .

Mr Schmidt assured citizens in the video that the changes “will in no way affect” Sunday’s vote.

The 1995 peace accord gave the high international representative, a position currently held by Schmidt, broad powers, including the ability to enforce laws and fire officials and civil servants who disrupted the country’s fragile postwar racial balance.

The changes Mr Schmidt imposes will affect the size of the parliament in the country’s Bosnian Croat region and prevent a blockade on the formation of its government.