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GENEVA (AP) — The World Trade Organization forecasts that as the crisis and challenges weigh on the market, including high energy prices, rising interest rates and uncertainty about Chinese manufacturing output amid lingering COVID-19 , global trade volume will grow by 1% next year. Pandemic.
The Geneva-based trade body said on Wednesday it expects shipments of goods between countries to grow 3.5% this year, up from 3% this year when the WTO first forecast in April.
Such trade volumes are expected to grow by just 1% in 2023, down from an earlier forecast of 3.4%.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala told reporters at the WTO headquarters in Geneva that “risks will definitely go down” next year.
This year’s higher forecast growth in trade volumes stems from better data released mid-year, helping to make clearer forecasts, and a surge in trade volumes among Middle East oil and gas producers as supplies come from WTO economists Russia was shunned, and consuming countries sought alternative sources, it said.
The WTO listed several factors affecting trade, including rising energy prices due to Russia’s war in Ukraine, which has prompted many countries – including EU members, which are big consumers of Russia’s oil and gas – to impose economic sanctions on Moscow.
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