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DUBAI: Iran’s religious rulers are likely to contain the unrest that has erupted in the country for now, and if history is any guide, prospects for a new political order are slim, four analysts said.
The protests, which began with the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini after being arrested by morality police, have turned into a revolt against what protesters say is the growing authoritarianism of his ruling Islamic cleric.
However, with Iran’s ruler determined to maintain control of power at all costs, a swift uprising by the veteran Egyptian and Tunisian rulers who ousted in 2011 seems unlikely.
For decades, the civilian establishment has used its loyal elite force, the Revolutionary Guard, to violently suppress national uprisings, student riots and protests against economic hardship. The guards have been restrained so far, but they can be mobilized quickly.
If the protests continue, Iran will turn to its usual solution: “This time with unrestrained violence against unarmed civilians to quell the protests,” said Kasla Arabi, director of the Iran Program at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change (Kasra Aarabi) said.
The protests have been going on for nearly three weeks – becoming one of the largest demonstrations against the rule of Islamic clerics in Iran in years.
Analysts said that while the number of protests could not compare with the 1979 Islamic Revolution, when millions took to the streets, the unity and unity of protesters calling for the downfall of the clerical establishment is reminiscent of that.
“The current protests have a striking resemblance to 1979, and that’s the mood in the streets, which is obviously revolutionary… They don’t want reform, they want regime change,” Araby said.
“Of course, no one can predict when this moment will happen: it could be weeks, months or even years … but the Iranian people have made up their minds.”
Protesters challenged the legitimacy of the Islamic Republic, burning photos of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and chanting “death to the dictator”, while security forces used tear gas, sticks, and in many cases live ammunition. Disapprove of this.

But Iran’s supreme rulers are determined not to show the kind of weakness they believe has determined the fate of the U.S.-backed shah.
For human rights activists at the time, Shah’s big mistake was alienating the population with torture and bloodshed. But in hindsight, some historians say the Shah was too weak, slow and indecisive in his repression.
“The regime’s approach relies more on repression than the Shah does,” said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute.
Human rights groups say the state crackdown on the protests has so far left at least 150 people dead, hundreds injured and thousands arrested.
Officials said many members of the security forces were killed by “thugs and thugs linked to foreign enemies,” echoing comments from Khamenei on Monday, in which he accused the United States and Israel of inciting “riots.”
The Shah appeared on state television shortly before the revolution, saying: “As the Shah of Iran…I hear your revolution…I have to endorse your revolution.” His opponents saw this as a sign of fragility. “Ayatollah Khamenei has learned his lesson from going through the revolution, and if you tell people you heard their voices and you’re wrong, then your leadership is over. He doesn’t want to do that,” Watanka said.
However, Watanka said Khamenei’s indomitable rhetoric also carries risks. “If Khamenei doesn’t listen…and stop this kind of nonsense that protests are all foreign-led, there will be more protests,” he said. Demonstrations spread from Amini’s home province of Kurdistan to all 31 of Iran’s In each province, all segments of society, including ethnic and religious minorities, have joined.
“These wide-ranging protests have attracted almost all the people the government has not addressed grievances about,” said Vahid Yucesoy, an expert on political Islam in Canada.
The popular Kurdish political slogan “Women, life, freedom” used in the Kurdish independence movement was first chanted at Amini’s funeral in the Kurdish town of Saqiz on September 17 and has been used worldwide to protest against her death.
Fearing ethnic uprisings, the establishment has resorted to restrained repression rather than the iron-fisted tactics it has shown in the past, analysts say.

Said Gorka, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga, said the protests were “secular, non-ideological, and in a way anti-Islamic.”
“The Iranians are rebelling against the clergy … they use religion to suppress the people,” he said.
Anti-Shah uprisings reverberated around provincial cities, towns and villages. But what crippled his rule were strikes by oil workers, who shut off the taps for most of the country’s income, and strikes by bazaar traders who funded the rebel clergy.
While college students have played a key role in protests at the current dozens of university strikes, there has been little sign of bazaars and oil workers joining.
“The Bazaaris were important during the 1979 revolution because at the time they believed the king’s economic reforms were against their interests and therefore supported the revolution,” Watanka said.
“Today, the bazaar has nothing to defend because it no longer controls the economy now in the hands of the Guard.”
The Guard loyal to Khamenei is an industrial empire and a formidable military force. It has political influence and controls Iran’s oil industry.