The UAE just received 20 drones from Turkey. What’s the story behind it?

In March 2021, Tawazun, the defense and security procurement agency of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) Armed Forces, held discussions with Turkey’s Baykar Defense, a well-known homegrown Bayraktar TB2 drone manufacturer, about a possible collaboration.Talks continued for several months, and then the UAE introduce The coveted $2 billion offer. The deal includes Abu Dhabi’s order for 120 TB2 drones, munitions, command and control units and training.

The news comes amid discussions to take defense cooperation between the two countries to a new level. On September 21, Turkey reportedly delivered 20 Bayraktars to the UAE.a senior turkish official comfirmed His country has already delivered some drones, and Abu Dhabi is indeed seeking more. Many observers I spoke to found this development at the defense and military level to be quite surprising for two main reasons.

First, the TB2 production line was fully occupied after reaching maximum capacity as Russia began its invasion of Ukraine in February.according to to Haluk Bayraktar’s three-year term as CEO of Turkish drone maker Baykar has come to an end. Although Ankara is trying to increase its production capacity amid growing international demand for its TB2, there is currently no room to quickly meet unexpected and unplanned demand.

Another reason is the UAE’s tough foreign policy and experience with Chinese drones. Presumably, this could indicate that Abu Dhabi could use Turkish drones against Ankara’s regional interests, or even hand them over to third parties who could threaten such interests.In this sense, one can recall a precedent during which the Libyan warlord General Khalifa Haftar was accused of war crimeUsing the Chinese-made Pterosaur drone acquired by the UAE be opposed to The UN-recognized and Turkey-backed Libyan government was held in Tripoli in 2019.

Baykar Defense’s decision to deliver 20 of its flagship TB2 drones to Abu Dhabi in the context of Libya means that Turkey takes the UAE’s offer very seriously and both parties have resolved concerns related to the nature of the use of Turkish drones. The Turks don’t want to lose the deal. However, they also don’t offer everything the UAE asks for. This strategy should keep the two sides engaged in defense negotiations for quite some time.

a surprising offer

In 2011, Abu Dhabi and Ankara signed a memorandum of understanding on defense industry cooperation.memorandum of understanding is approve 2017.Although the UAE is still one of top importer In the past decade of Turkish defense equipment, no significant progress has been made in defense industry cooperation. Still, the possibility of a $2 billion deal is certainly a departure from traditional trends.

After normalizing relations with Turkey in February 2021, the UAE expressed its intention to accelerate cooperation at the defense level.This leads to two sign the contract A letter of intent for cooperation in the defense industry to establish regular meetings between their representatives to identify areas of cooperation and follow up on outcomes. During a meeting with the Central Executive Committee of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in July 2021, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan exposed The UAE proposed to build a factory for TB2 in Abu Dhabi. But why especially Turkish drones? What is the reason for buying 120 units or even building a factory?

The UAE’s drone force relies heavily on some aging American drones as well as modern ones Chinese Version.Abu Dhabi’s drone inventory includes MQ-1 Predators, the export version of the RQ-1 Predator (which cannot carry weapons), and the Chinese Pterosaur I and Pterosaur II drones. Most of these drones are used for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance missions.

About the drones obtained from the United States, the United Arab Emirates Require The premium MQ-9 Reaper was purchased two years ago, but Washington suspended that requirement in 2021. As for Chinese drones, while the Pterosaur II, capable of carrying multiple munitions, has been advertised as a cost-effective alternative to the American-made MQ-9 Reaper, its performance has been modest. Compared with Turkey’s TB2, although larger and heavier, the Chinese drone did not shine.several buyers have Express Disappointed with the performance of domestic drones.

In this sense, the purchase of Turkish drones will diversify and modernize the UAE’s inventory. Additionally, the acquisition of Turkish Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UCAV) will contribute to the UAE’s current strategy of investing in and developing autonomous capabilities, electronic warfare capabilities, and smart munitions. Sourcing technology, expertise and equipment from major advanced suppliers outside the United States means developing a working relationship with Turkey.

motivation behind the transaction

As important as it is, the motivation for diversification alone does not provide the comprehensive answer to why the UAE would request 120 Turkish drones, or even propose to build a factory to produce them. A range of political, commercial and defense-related reasons may help shed light on the motivations behind the UAE’s mammoth proposal.

First, it is worth considering the performance of TB2 in non-traditional military confrontation and hybrid warfare. The reason why Turkish drones are favored by customers around the world is that it is generally an efficient and low-cost military system.it has been battle-tested In several key geopolitical battlegrounds of different hostile situations and environments.Although some limit With a lack of adequate ground stations and an operating range that relies on ground stations rather than satellite communications, the performance of the TB2 is good enough to provide Abu Dhabi with a meaningful new fleet of drones.

Second, the deal sends a message to the U.S.: “If you don’t sell us weapons, we’ll get them elsewhere.” During Donald Trump’s administration, Abu Dhabi ask Purchases of Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jets, General Atomics Aeronautical Systems (GA-ASI) MQ-9 Remotely Operated Aircraft (RPAS) and other equipment and munitions worth an estimated $23 billion.Although the Trump administration initially agree To continue the issue, the Biden administration later pause The deal includes as many as 18 MQ-9Bs and related equipment reportedly worth $3 billion.

Third, the Abu Dhabi deal should not be viewed solely from a technical perspective. $2 billion offer aimed at buying UAE influences Within Turkey, and to build strong working relationships with the political establishment and the nascent defense industry based on mutual interests and threats.Recently, the UAE and Turkey have been facing growing threats Iran– Supporting Shiite militias at the adjacent theater. TB2 has proven to be an attractive offensive platform against high-value military assets, armed groups and militias.

After normalizing relations with Ankara, the UAE flexed its financial muscle and deepened commercial ties with Turkey. The defense industry sector is one of the areas where Abu Dhabi can meet some of its defense needs and be operational and profitable at the same time.

As for Turkey, it may need to consider several delicate issues before proceeding cautiously, given the importance of a possible $2 billion deal. A problematic issue is that a one-off sale of 120 drones to the UAE — even if they were available — would alter the delicate military balance within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), especially with Qatar and Saudi Arabia. However, by delivering 20 TB2s in September, Ankara still has the opportunity to test the willingness of other countries to buy more drones, and even stimulate them to do so without seriously disrupting the internal balance of the GCC.

Ultimately, the UAE and Turkey may see their current model of executing TB2 deals as a win-win. Turkey has shown that it can ensure the defense needs of the UAE even in special or emergency times. Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi has proven it can walk the talk when it comes to opening a new chapter with Ankara and boosting bilateral relations.

But Bakir He is a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. He is also an Assistant Professor at Qatar University. Follow him on Twitter: @alibeck.

further reading

Thursday, October 28, 2021

Iranian drones are a huge threat to Saudi Arabia

MENA source
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Over the past few years, small but sophisticated armed Iranian-made drones have weakened the security balance in the Gulf region and the Arabian Peninsula, raising a new asymmetric threat.

IMAGE: An engineer of Turkish drone maker Baykar stands next to the TB2 drone during the first day of the SAHA EXPO defense and aerospace exhibition in Istanbul, Turkey, Nov. 10, 2021. Reuters/Umit Bektas