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Only one month before the Germans go to the ballot box to vote in the federal election, the race to succeed Angela Merkel and form the next government is coming to an end.
Merkel’s decision to retire after 16 years at the top of German politics has made it difficult for her Christian Democrats to shake off her immense prestige, and under the leadership of the new leader Armin Laschet (Armin Laschet), they may go to war. The worst result in post history.
The main beneficiary is their junior ruling partner, the center-left Social Democratic Party (SDP).
A number of public opinion polls have shown that the SDP has undergone a significant transformation. After years of withering in the shadow of its larger ruling partner, under the leadership of Finance Minister Olaf Scholz, Found a new life during the campaign.
The Forsa poll released on Tuesday showed that for the first time in 15 years, the SDP leads the Christian Democrats by a 23 to 22 advantage, which has narrowed the gap by more than 10 percentage points from a month ago.
At the same time, the Green Party, which showed strong momentum earlier this year, has fallen to third place with a ratio of 18%.
Arndt Leininger, a political scientist at Chemnitz University of Technology, said: “The outgoing Chancellor will no longer stand for election. This is the first time in Germany.”
“Since Merkel’s CDU defeated Schroeder’s Social Democratic Party by a narrow margin in 2005, we have not seen such an open competition.”
Possible alliance
The prospect of Merkel’s absence further undermined the political landscape in Germany and eroded her sense of stability during her tenure as prime minister.
If reality reflects the opinion polls, this will be the first time in post-war history that any political party has failed to obtain 30% of the vote—a situation that may require a rare tripartite coalition to form a ruling majority.
“The era of big parties is over,” said the political scientist Gro Niugbauer, who likened the situation to the decline of many other traditionally dominant European parties.
He told Al Jazeera: “The divisions between German society and different interest groups add up, and we have to expect the three-party alliance to be more reliable.”
Schultz’s ascent Social Democrats may join forces with the Greens and the Liberal Democrats (FDP) — a so-called “traffic light coalition”, depending on their colors — or may shift to a left-wing coalition with the Greens and the Left.
If SDP leads the next government, SDP promises to levy moderate taxes on the rich and increase support for low-income earners, and is more willing to unite EU fiscal policy and debt sharing, Merkel conservatives and FDP’s long-term red line.
The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, CSU, may seek to retry the establishment of a black, green and yellow “Jamaica Union” with the Green Party and FDP.
The trio spent several weeks discussing potential alliances after the 2017 election, and then the Liberal Democratic Party leader Christian Lindner withdrew his support, causing Merkel to re-establish a “major alliance” with historical rival SDP.
In recent months, the far-right German Alternative Party (AfD) has maintained a stable 10% in public opinion polls, but has been abandoned by other parties.
The two sides have major conflicts over budgets and policies, which may complicate negotiations.
The CDU and the Liberal Democratic Party refuse to increase taxes and are loyal supporters of the German constitutional debt limit, while the Social Democratic Party and the Green Party hope to use low interest rates to borrow and spend for social welfare and climate protection.
Neugebauer expects that the negotiations will continue for several weeks after the vote is counted, and this process may be further extended if the party and its members conduct a confirmation vote.
Who can replace Merkel?
Voters make decisions based on party rather than individuality, which is regarded as a creed by many in Germany.
However, the leadership vacuum that Merkel is expected to leave has caused most party campaigns to focus on candidates rather than their policy platforms and ideologies.
Scholz of SDP, the former mayor of Hamburg and the centrist in his party, is by far the most popular candidate.
Even among supporters of other political parties, his reputation as a predictable and reliable steward of the German economy has caused a surprising shock to the SDP, which until recently seemed dying.
In the polls of individual candidates, Schultz is far ahead, but his prestige pales in comparison with Merkel.
When Raschelt became the winner in April after competing with the Bavarian leader Markus Soeder for the nomination of the Christian Democrats, celebrities in the party hope that as his face becomes more familiar, he will The worrying level of popularity among the public will rise.
On the contrary, the cheerful Rhineland did not show Merkel’s unique seriousness, and has made many mistakes and mistakes.
In a gloomy speech by the German President to commemorate the victims of the devastating floods in western Germany this summer, he faced severe criticism when the camera caught him joking in the background.
“Perhaps because Raschelt did not project a sense of stability and reliability like Merkel, so voters seeking this feeling are most likely to find it in Finance Minister Schultz,” Leininger told Al Jazeera.
After a long winter lockdown, the Green Party leader Annalena Baerbock’s message of change and revival touched people’s hearts in the spring, and many commentators touted her as the first waiting Green Party prime minister. .
But since then, her campaign has gone forever, and her reputation has been tarnished by being accused of filling in her resume and plagiarizing parts of her book.
On August 23, 2021, at the celebration of the 75th anniversary of the founding of North Rhine-Westphalia in Düsseldorf, Germany, German Chancellor Angela Merkel returned to his seat after giving a speech [Federico Gambarini/Pool via Reuters]A series of television leadership debates in the coming weeks will provide leaders with more opportunities to convince the public.
Big conservatives might regret choosing Laschet over the more popular Soeder.
However, to change course in such a short period of time, their party will have to hope that its vagrant voters will return when they vote.
The Green Party will hope to re-discuss their ambitious climate policy seriously, which has been derailed by media attacks and mockery of their plans to raise fuel taxes and subsidize bicycles.
Driven by the Delta variant and the stagnant 60% full coverage rate, the increase in the fourth wave of COVID-19 infections may also be a decisive factor.
The previous wave hit the popularity of the CDU, which controls the Ministry of Health and leads the German pandemic response, and created opportunities for other parties.
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