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Analysts say that the Pakistani government, which has long been accused of providing service and other support to the Taliban in Afghanistan, will balance a more friendly optimism towards the Kabul government with potential security counterattacks on its own territory.
However, Pakistani officials told Al Jazeera that the country has no preference in Afghanistan and continues to support “a negotiated political settlement” which will enable “An inclusive government“Formed in its northwestern neighboring country.
“Pakistan’s preferred outcome, we have always been clear, is to negotiate an inclusive political solution in Afghanistan. A representative of all ethnic groups,” said Hassan Akbar, a senior national security official.
The Afghan Taliban, which swept the country during the summer lightning offensive, took control of the capital Kabul on August 15 and continued to form their own government. The armed group has launched a bloody armed rebellion against the U.S. and Afghan forces for nearly two decades, resulting in the deaths of thousands of civilians and security forces.
The organization strictly abides by Islamic law and is accused of committing atrocities against ethnic minorities and restricting women’s rights during its last administration (1996-2001).
Akbar said: “We are very clear that without a negotiated political solution and an inclusive government, Afghanistan will not be able to achieve long-term peace and stability.”
Although the US and European governments seem to be focusing on evacuation, Pakistani officials said that Pakistan is still promoting negotiations between the Afghan Taliban and other political groups to form a governance structure that protects the basic rights of all citizens.
“From the perspective of Pakistan, we have always believed that the best time to negotiate a political settlement is from the perspective of strength. At that time, the United States had much more troops, but unfortunately, this decision was not made at the time and not enough Stress this [Afghan] The government, we lost this opportunity,” Akbar said.
‘The Taliban are the most popular’
However, analysts say that the Pakistani government is much more satisfied with the outcome of the conflict in Afghanistan than officials have expressed.
“Maybe there is a disguise, but no one will believe [Pakistan’s security establishment] No favorite,” said Zahid Hussein, a senior journalist and author of “Not Winning the War: The Paradox of U.S.-Pakistan Relations in the Shadow of Afghanistan”.
“Security Agency” is a general term used by Pakistan to describe the country’s powerful military and intelligence services. They dominate foreign and security policies and more and more aspects of governance, and have been directly involved in about half of its 74-year history. Ruled the country since independence.
“The Taliban are the most popular, and they are there.”
Former Afghan government official accuses Pakistan of providing a safe haven for Taliban leaders [File: Saeed Ali Achakzai/Reuters]Hussein said that although Pakistani officials “are not obviously happy, they are actually very satisfied.”
He said that the main reason for this situation is that people believe that the Afghan Taliban government is more friendly to Pakistan’s interests than the former U.S.-backed Afghan President Hamid Karzai and Ashraf Ghani government.
“It’s not that [Pakistani leaders] Not worried or worried about the consequences, but the real situation is that they see the changes in Afghanistan will provide them with a better cross-border situation, especially in the context of India,” Hussein said.
Michael Cougman, deputy director of the Wilson Center think tank based in the United States, agreed that although Pakistan’s security agencies will be aware of security risks, they will also be keen to participate.
“Let’s be clear: Pakistan is keen to engage with the Taliban. Recognizing the Taliban government will help Islamabad have the ability to deepen its footprint in a country that has long held an important position in India,” he said.
Both analysts agreed that the main issue between the two countries will be the Taliban (TTP) or the Pakistani Taliban.
Pakistani Taliban
Founded in 2007, TTP is an umbrella group of armed groups established in northwestern Pakistan. It believes in a philosophy similar to that of the Taliban in Afghanistan, that is, strictly interprets Islamic law and has fought against the Pakistani army for more than ten years.
According to government data, TTP claims that some of the largest bombings in Pakistan’s history have occurred, including large-scale suicide attacks against civilians, minority communities, political leaders, and security forces, which have caused more than 80,000 deaths since 2007.
Pakistani security officials said that since 2014, the Pakistani military has been stationed in eastern Afghanistan after the Pakistani military launched a large-scale attack on the TTP at its old headquarters in the North Waziristan and South Waziristan regions bordering Afghanistan.
Violence has decreased significantly, but the organization continues to launch sporadic large-scale attacks against civilians in Pakistani cities. In recent months, TTP has also intensified targeted attacks on Pakistani security forces and civilians in its former North Waziristan and South Waziristan strongholds.
Earlier this month, the Pakistani government accused a bus carrying Chinese and Pakistani workers of causing 13 deaths on TTP, claiming that the attack was provided by Indian and Afghan intelligence services. These governments denied the allegation.
Hussein said: “There is an inherent concern that the Afghan Taliban’s takeover will also have an impact on this side of the border, especially in Pakistan’s fight against militants.”
“It’s not the 1990s anymore-Pakistan has fought a war with the militant TTP. They have managed to clean up these areas, but the control of some of them is temporary.”
Hussein said Pakistan will press the Afghan Taliban to take action against the TTP, but the problem is “complex”.
“I don’t think the Afghan Taliban will take military action against them or drive them out, but they seem to have promised that they will not enter Pakistan from the border to take action.”
Earlier this week, Pakistan’s Interior Minister Sheikh Rashid Ahmed Said Although TTP released a video showing TTP senior commander Faqir Muhammad returning home after being released from an Afghan prison by Afghan Taliban fighters, the Afghan Taliban provided this assurance.
National security official Akbar said that Pakistan’s interest in stability in Afghanistan is related to its concerns about TTP.
“Pakistan has always been a victim of the conflict in Afghanistan… We fight with blood and treasure, and we hope to protect their achievements at all costs. This is a major area of concern,” he said.
“This is exactly why we want to see a stable government in Afghanistan, because the protracted conflict in Afghanistan is not in Pakistan’s interest.”
In February 2020, an important part of the plan Peace agreement The U.S. withdrawal of all troops from Afghanistan signed by the United States and the Afghan Taliban is the Taliban’s pledge to not allow transnational armed groups to use the country’s territory to attack others.
“Islamabad will put pressure on the Taliban to contain TTP in Afghanistan. But this is easier said than done,” Kugman said. “The Taliban have a long-term relationship with TTP, which includes ideological ties and operational cooperation in Afghanistan.”
‘Scapegoat Pakistan’
Akbar said Pakistan’s other main concerns about stability in Afghanistan revolve around the possible refugee crisis and the country’s long-term view of economic growth through geographic connectivity.
“First of all, we cannot accept more [Afghan] Refugees,” he said. “Secondly, Pakistan wants to retain the results we have achieved in combating terrorism over the past decade. Finally, we hope to pursue a regional connectivity policy, which requires Afghanistan to become a stable and peaceful country. “
Akbar said that Pakistan is currently working with all stakeholders to promote the Afghan issue to ensure that they form an inclusive government, respect the basic rights of Afghans, and fulfill their commitments to the international community regarding transnational armed groups.
However, in the United States, Pakistan’s position in the current negotiations is a tough selling point for some people.
In the washington post Column This week, former George W. Bush and Trump administration official John Bolton called on the United States to “take a tough attitude toward Islamabad” in response to its policy against the Taliban.
In terms of foreign policy, American scholar Christine Fair also called for action against Pakistan, saying that the country “is the main force behind the Taliban.”
Former CIA officer Bruce Riddle, who wrote for the Brookings Institution, described the Taliban’s victory in Kabul as “Pakistan’s victory in Afghanistan”.
Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan visits Kabul-this is his first visit since taking office-pledged to support peace in Afghanistan [File: Mohammad Ismail/Reuters]Pakistani official Akbar refuted this criticism, saying it was based on “old routines.”
“It is absurd to say that Pakistan is responsible. Pakistan did not ask [Afghan forces] Surrender and lay down their weapons, or let the Kabul government pack up and leave,” he said.
“How can the disintegration of the 300,000 army in 9 days be placed on Pakistan’s door? This is the scapegoat for Pakistan’s failure in Afghanistan in the past 20 years.”
Looking to the future, analysts agree that Pakistan’s main concern will be to obtain assurances from the Taliban in Afghanistan to close the TTP operating space, despite concerns about Pakistan’s influence over the organization.
“Since the Taliban are in power in Afghanistan, Islamabad will lose influence over it,” Kugman said.
“Pakistan enjoys influence over the Taliban because it provides shelter for the leaders of the organization and medical facilities for the injured Taliban fighters. But now the Taliban controls the entire Afghanistan, no longer fights, and it no longer needs Pakistan. Supported.”
Since the beginning of the US war in Afghanistan, Pakistani officials have continued to repeat their long-standing fear: a repeat of the 1980s and 1990s, when the United States and other allies abandoned the region after successfully arming the Afghans in Afghanistan against the Soviet Union. The uprising eventually created the Taliban in Afghanistan.
“Pakistan is worried about a very important thing: the world cannot abandon Afghanistan and Afghans. This is a mistake made in the 1980s, and we have seen its consequences,” Akbar said.
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