UAE GDP to grow 4.1% by 2023: World Bank official

Essam Abu Suleiman, Regional Director for the Gulf Cooperation Council of the World Bank, told WAM: “Despite the difficult global economic situation, our estimates suggest that the UAE economy will grow by about 4.1% next year. This will benefit greatly from a strong recovery non-oil economy.”

According to him, rising oil exports from the UAE and recovering demand in the non-oil sector, along with the country’s favorable business environment and well-developed infrastructure, are expected to support strong economic growth.

Abu Suleiman said that as oil revenues rise and the non-oil sector recovers, so will the UAE’s revenues, leading to a fiscal surplus of about 4.4 percent of GDP in 2022. He also noted that the UAE’s recently signed bilateral free trade agreement, coupled with strong oil exports, is expected to generate a current account surplus of 11.2 percent of GDP.

Earlier this month, the UAE’s central bank said in its latest quarterly economic review that the country’s GDP would grow by 7.6% this year, up more than a percentage point from its previous estimate of 6.5%.

The central bank attributed the upward revision to its growth forecast to the strong performance of some non-oil sectors, including tourism, hotels, real estate, transport and manufacturing.

The watchdog expects non-oil GDP to grow 6.1% in 2022, compared with a previous estimate of 4.3%, while oil GDP is expected to grow 11% in 2022.

The report also noted that while advanced and emerging economies will grow slowly in 2023, the growth outlook for the GCC will be different.

“The global economy is experiencing a deeper-than-expected slowdown in 2022, a trend that is expected to continue in 2023. Risks from rising global inflation, continued tightening of global financial conditions and uncertainties related to the conflict in Ukraine continue to mount. The global economy is slowing,” the report said.

However, growth in the GCC countries was revised upwards.

“Growth prospects for the GCC vary, with outlooks revised upwards for all countries. Real GDP growth is expected to peak in 2022, with Kuwait and Saudi Arabia’s GDP projected to expand by 8.7 percent and 7.6 percent, respectively,” the central bank said.