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In the 21st century of globalization and technological interconnection, empty shelves, food shortages and supply problems are not common features.
However, food shortages across the UK have dominated the headlines in recent weeks. Supermarket shelves are scarce and restaurant menus have been revised.
The popular roast chicken restaurant chain Nandos recently closed some of its stores due to running out of chicken, and various other big brand stores, including Greggs Bakery and McDonald’s, are also facing similar supply problems.
A disappointed Greggs client in Brighton, Steve Wilson, told Al Jazeera: “I have two near me, but both lack menu items.”
He originally wanted to order fried chicken French bread on Just Eat, but found that “they only have one type”.
Then he called the branch for more information. “They said this was due to a shortage of chicken, so they had to stop providing certain items.”
In London, Ziad Elhassan visited the Mile End branch of Nandos, but was frustrated to find the reduced menu.
“This is the third time in a month without thighs,” he said. “They have chests and wings, but no thighs.”
When he asked for an explanation, he was told that the supply chain problem was the culprit. “The thighs obviously come from a different supplier,” he added.
Part of the reason for these shortages is that Brexit (the historic departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union) catalyzed the demographic changes.
The British Poultry Council estimates that due to the return of workers to the European Union, one-sixth of the jobs in the industry are currently vacant.
According to the Road Transport Association, there is currently a shortage of 100,000 heavy goods vehicle (HGV) drivers in the UK.
The labor shortage is also the result of the pandemic. Analysts say that there is no such food shortage, but a labor supply problem in transportation and logistics caused by COVID-19 and Brexit.
David Hennig, head of the Brussels-based European Center for International Political Economy, told Al Jazeera: “We have an economic shock that is unique to the UK, Brexit, on top of the global shock, COVID.”
The rise of online shopping, especially next-day delivery, and the pandemic has increased dependence on next-day delivery, which means that consumers want more delivery services-and faster, but delivery drivers are rare.
At the same time, analysts said that the global shortage of truck drivers has been a potential problem since the mid-2000s.
In a recent interview with the Financial Times, Rod McKenzie, the policy director of the Road Transport Association, said: “The only place where there is no serious shortage of drivers is Africa.”
But the short-term impact of Brexit on the British workforce is obvious.
An independent study conducted by RepGraph on behalf of Transport Association UK Logistics estimates that in the year ending June 2020, 14,000 EU drivers left the UK, and only 600 returned by the second quarter of 2021.
At the same time, there has been a backlog of domestic drivers waiting to be tested for HGV who were postponed during the pandemic, and the number of drivers who had been reduced is being further reduced due to testing and tracking quarantine rules.
In short, there are goods, but there are fewer drivers transporting goods.
But Henig explained that the problem of driver shortages in the UK is more complicated.
“They look particularly serious…because they used to rely on the use of EU staff.”
The government has outlined plans to recruit HGV qualified military personnel to fill the vacancies, but industry leaders say this is not enough.
The British Logistics and British Retail Alliance recently wrote to the government calling for intervention to allow European drivers to return to the UK on short-term visas.
It is not clear whether the government will accept events that may be seen as short-term political failures.
Looking to the future, uncertainty is imminent.
British Logistics expects that with the new school year, the return of some companies to the office and the upcoming Christmas holiday, the demand for goods will increase and the “crisis” will worsen.
Analysts expect that there will be more disruptions when comprehensive customs inspections of EU goods are carried out.
By January 2022, all documents must be in order, and there are concerns that neither the UK border system nor EU companies will be able to prepare for the new wave of documents.
“It is likely that there will be a permanent [impact] In terms of reduced supply and rising prices,” Henig said, “but as long as the main supply chain continues to exist, shortages are unlikely to become the norm. “
In the medium term, how the EU will deal with its tight supply is another issue.
Henig stated that if the EU adopts a more protectionist approach, “the UK may be better than the EU to recover from our double shock”.
This recovery may be seen as a Brexit victory for the ruling Conservative government, but at least it is inspiring for British fans of southern fried chicken baguettes and Nandos chicken drumsticks.
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