Israel’s twin crisis puts UAE in double bind

In previous performances of this production, MBZ, as he is widely known in the Arab world, would have been a bystander. But two and a half years ago, he took the stage by normalizing relations between the UAE and Israel. In fact, he was involved in Israel’s more contentious relations with the Palestinians and Iran.

Two other Arab countries, Bahrain and Morocco, followed the example of the UAE and signed the Abraham Accords with Israel, but it was MBZ that really stuck its neck out. His officials quickly established trade, tourism and security ties with Israel, and talk of a $1 trillion economic relationship over the next decade.

Given Netanyahu’s belligerent history toward Iran and uncompromising hostility toward the Palestinians, MBZ would have expected turmoil in the relationship between the two. The UAE is acutely aware that its gleaming cities and oil installations are within range of Islamic Republic missiles. Tehran also uses its proxies, such as the Houthi rebels in Yemen, to threaten the interests of the UAE. The stakes are high for Iran to lash out at the UAE in retaliation for the actions of its Israeli ally.

Violence against Palestinians, whether caused by the IDF or Jewish settlers, is a different kind of problem for MBZ: discrediting in the wider Arab world. The Emiratis argue that signing the Abraham Accords would give them more leverage over the Israelis and thus better protect Palestinian interests. As evidence, they point to Netanyahu’s abandonment of plans to annex large swathes of the West Bank.

But the UAE’s ability to limit Israel’s actions against the Palestinians has always been challenged by Netanyahu’s new ruling coalition, which is beset by extreme right-wing parties calling for annexation and more violence against the Palestinians.

Now, the MBZ faces a perfect storm: increased violence against Palestinians, authorized and emboldened settlers — and the Iranian regime, already agitated by internal dissent, Israel’s military assault on Isfahan. The attack on the hospital sparked the situation.

(By contrast, the Saudis will feel right after resisting U.S. pressure to join the Abraham Accords and make a Palestinian state a prerequisite for formal diplomatic relations with Israel.)

So far, Emirates has responded with characteristic caution. They condemn provocations by Netanyahu’s allies: the UAE joined China in calling for a UN Security Council meeting after National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir entered the Al-Aqsa mosque compound in early January. They condemned the IDF raid on the Palestinian refugee camp in Jenin and the terrorist attack on a synagogue near Jerusalem.

They expressed dissatisfaction with the attack in Isfahan. Anwar Mohammed Gargash, the MBZ’s diplomatic adviser, said in a tweet that the attack was “not in the interest of the region or its future”. However, he was careful not to blame Israel directly.

But the limits of this cautious approach are sure to be tested as the Netanyahu government takes power. MBZ can expect more Palestinian bait from Ben-Gvir and other right-wing figures, and more belligerence from the settlers.

With little influence over Palestinian terrorist groups like Hamas and Islamic Jihad, MBZ can also expect more violence against Israelis. He has to know that Israel will make more attempts at Iranian military targets, especially as the Tehran regime races to nuclear threshold status. And, as he learned last weekend, he can expect all of those things to happen at the same time.

The UAE rulers face more discomfort.

More views from Bloomberg:

• Yemen’s fragile truce needs more than negotiation to survive: Bobby Ghosh

• Netanyahu’s new partner wastes no time in undermining him: Hussein Ibish

• A democratic Iran is coming and will lead the Middle East: Robert D. Kaplan

This column does not necessarily reflect the views of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Bobby Ghosh is a Bloomberg Foreign Affairs columnist. Previously, he was Editor-in-Chief of The Hindustan Times, Editor-in-Chief of Quartz and International Editor of Time.

More stories like this can be found at bloomberg.com/opinion