In a past article, the ADX market gave a sell signal when the monthly cycle peaked in the fourth quarter of last year. The April low was expected at the time. This cycle will bottom out next month. As we can see in the monthly histogram below, favorable seasonality supports the cycle lows. In fact, from March 17 to April 26, the index has gained 82% in its short 18-year history.
The third graph is the monthly price graph. It shows that a 13-year relative strength downtrend has broken to the upside. This means that by the end of the decade, the relative strength line will rise. The price is likely to reach or exceed the previous high of 10,600 in 2023.
ADX monthly cycle
This exact cycle bottomed out in April.
Cycle Research Investments LLC
ADX Monthly Histogram
April was the second strongest month. Cycle Research Investments LLC
I bought my first stock in 1966, then earned a BA in Banking from NYU in 1971 and an MBA in Corporate Finance in 1972. A study cycle begins in the same year. This was followed by a 9-year apprenticeship in psychotherapy training. Many of my concepts about crowd psychology stem from this period. From 1972 to 1990, I worked on the buy and sell sides of Wall Street. From 1990 to 2004, I was a Technical Fund Manager, Strategist and member of the Currency Hedging Committee at Abu Dhabi Investment Authority. Since 2004 I run a service in Vienna, Austria. I’m a member of the Vienna-based futurist group Kenos Circle. I combine fundamentals with cycles through unique software to aid in market forecasting. The influence of circular theorists such as Ed Dewey, Charles Jayne, George Lindsay and RN Elliott has been most valuable.
