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Ten teams will compete in the ICC World Cup qualifiers in Zimbabwe later this year. Of these, two will emerge from the play-offs – and no one seems to know the exact rules that determine who they are.
The ten teams in the qualifiers will include the bottom five from the Cricket World Cup Premier League – Zimbabwe, Netherlands, Sri Lanka, West Indies, and either Ireland or South Africa – the top three from the Cricket World Cup League 2 – Scotland, Oman and Nepal – with two more from the play-offs.
Six teams – hosts NamibiaAmerica / Canada, United Arab EmiratesJersey and Papua New Guinea – have been battling each other in a play-off in Namibia since March 26.
Papua New Guinea were out a while ago after losing their first four games.USA beat Jersey by 25 points today (4 April), while Namibia beats Canada by 111 points.
The United States qualified for the qualifiers with eight points from five games to secure a top-two finish, while Jersey (two points from four games) was eliminated.
Namibia, on the other hand, have six points from five games, the same as the UAE. Two points behind is Canada. The UAE and Canada have yet to play their last games, against Jersey and Papua New Guinea respectively.
“U.S. Seals qualifier spot; Namibia alive,” ran Released after the ICC game Today (April 4), after defeating Canada in Southbia.
While the first part of the statement is correct, the rest of the statement is not, according to the eligibility criteria issued by the ICC itself Qualifier play-offwhich reads:
“If teams are tied on points, their ranking order in the final standings will be determined in the following order:
1. The team with the most wins
2. If still tied, the team with the most points wins over other teams with equal points and the same number of wins
3. If still tied, the team with the highest net run rate
4. If they are still equal, they will be arranged in the order of the original seed”
The competition conditions for the competition are not published on the ICC website.
Granted, Namibia’s net run rate (+0.601) is higher than that of the UAE (+0.241) or Canada (-0.298). But will it work?
Let’s look at the possible outcomes of the two matches on April 5th. If UAE beats Jersey they will overtake Namibia and progress on 8 points (even a draw or no result would take them over Namibia), so a loss to UAE is the only way for Namibia to qualify.
If the UAE do lose, they will get the same points as Namibia. Based on the above criteria, head-to-head results will take precedence over net run rate. After beating Namibia by 28 points on April 2, the UAE will surely lead Namibia in a head-to-head match.
But what if the UAE lose to Jersey and Canada beat Papua New Guinea? In this case, Namibia, the UAE and Canada would all have six points, and the head-to-head would become a three-way contest.
The UAE beat Namibia. The day before that, they had also beaten Canada by six wickets. Therefore, regardless of the outcome of the remaining games, Namibia will always be lower than the UAE in head-to-head matches.
In other words, Namibia has already been eliminated – because the UAE has already qualified. By the same measure, they would also surpass Canada.
The chaos goes beyond the ICC. The UAE are yet to celebrate their apparent improvement on their social media accounts.
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