IntelBrief: UAE leaders consolidate power amid regional uncertainty

AP Photo/Jon Gambrel

March 29, Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MBZ).), President of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and ruler of the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, appointed three brothers and a son to key positions, cementing his authority and clarifying his successor. On top of that, MBZ named his eldest son, Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, 41, as Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi — effectively positioning him as the 62-year-old The legal heir of the leader. The leaders of the seven emirates have designated the ruler of the federal capital, Abu Dhabi, as the UAE president since the UAE’s statehood in 1971. Under the agreed separation of powers, the ruler of Dubai, the second largest emirate, currently held by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum (MBR), serves as the UAE’s vice president and prime minister. MBZ’s appointment of one of his brothers, Sheikh Mansoor bin Zayed Al Nahyan, as another vice president (in addition to his role as deputy prime minister of the UAE) appears to many experts as an attempt to weaken the authority of the MBR and Dubai. After completing the reshuffle, MBZ appointed two more brothers, Sheikh Tanub bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Sheikh Hazza bin Zayed Al Nahyan, UAE national security advisers, as deputy rulers of Abu Dhabi Those who are specifically responsible for supervising and guiding the new crown prince. The two new appointees, Tahnoon and Mansoor, also run the country’s two sovereign wealth funds, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) and Mubadala, respectively. Together, they are primarily responsible for investing more than $1 trillion in total assets worldwide.

The appointment of a crown prince by MBZ was not a surprise; since MBZ officially joined the UAE rule in May 2022 following the death of his older brother, Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan The post has been vacant since 2010, and Abu Dhabi’s successor is unclear. Sheikh Khalifa has been immobilized since a stroke in 2014, leaving MBZ as the de facto leader. By appointing his son as crown prince, MBZ clarified that the next succession will be direct rather than horizontal, and Khalid is the obvious choice for successor. Khaled is well-known in UAE politics and chairs the executive committee of the powerful Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) board. Appointing his brothers to senior government and financial positions appears to represent an effort by MBZ to ensure their continued loyalty, even if they are not lined up in the line of succession.

A reading of MBZ’s March 29 appointment suggests that MBZ seeks to reduce input from the MBR and federal business hub Dubai in national security decision-making. Dubai, with its large population of Iranian origin, many of whom facilitate Western exports to the Islamic Republic of Iran, has long been viewed as skeptical of MBZ’s tough stance against Tehran. The contentious divorce proceedings over the custody of MBR’s children with his ex-wife, daughter of the late King Hussein of Jordan, have left MBR vulnerable to pressure from Abu Dhabi. The accusations that have emerged during the proceedings, including what a senior British judge found to be “excessive” domestic abuse by MBR of his ex-wife, have damaged the Dubai ruler’s reputation. However, some UAE experts see MBZ’s new appointment as a move against Dubai, noting that Dubai’s role in implementing the UAE government’s domestic policies is enshrined in UAE law. In fact, experts insist, Dubai has been delaying the arrival of Al Nahyan national security affairsMoreover, the vice president’s role in the federal hierarchy is largely symbolic, with Mansour, as the government’s deputy prime minister, ranked less than Prime Minister Mbour. It is also worth noting that the Federal Supreme Council, comprising the leaders of all seven emirates, formally approved the appointment of Sheikh Mansour as vice president with little dissent.

MBZ’s leadership appointment may also reflect his attempt to prepare his inner circle for wider regional challenges – in particular, growth distance From Saudi Arabia and its de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), who is an important ally in many ways. Notable MBS-MBZ differences first emerged in 2019, when the UAE began withdrawing ground forces from the Yemen conflict, which later became a phased withdrawal.UAE ground exit comes as two Gulf powers predict quick victory and join forces in confrontation Iran-backed Houthi movement There. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have further divided over Yemen as the diplomatic process to end the conflict gathers pace.MBZ Reportedly Objects to Saudi Holdings direct dialogue Relations with Houthis – MBZ sees this as a diplomatic avenue to undercut UAE interests in a possible eventual settlement of the war. MBZ wants any Yemeni peace deal to allow the UAE to retain a strategic foothold on the country’s southern coast, from where it can continue to project power into the Red Sea to secure sea lanes from its ports to the rest of the world. The UAE’s view of Yemen mirrors MBZ’s view of the need to counteract Iran’s regional influence even after the war in Yemen is over.Still, both Gulf states have sought to improve relations with Tehran over the past two years, with the UAE backing Chinese intermediary Saudi Arabia decided in March to restore full diplomatic relations with the Islamic Republic.With plans to formally invite Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to the Arab League summit scheduled for May in Riyadh, the kingdom appears to have adopted the UAE’s stance of working with Assad regime should be normalized Reduce Iran’s influence in Syria.MBZ reportedly still unhappy with MBS efforts in 2020 bridge the rift Ties with Qatar were instigated by the UAE in 2017. Although there were some disagreements, the differences were formally resolved in early 2021.

The issue of oil production has also been at the heart of other disagreements between the UAE and Saudi Arabia in recent months. In late 2022, UAE leaders privately told Washington DC that they opposed the decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the broader OPEC+ alliance (OPEC and major non-OPEC producers, notably Russia) to cut production sharply.U.S. leaders cited production cut decision As further evidence that MBS should be considered an “untouchable” – a label largely derived from his role in the 2018 killing of Saudi dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Since that production cut, Gulf energy officials have said the UAE has privately urged OPEC+ to allow it to increase output and that the UAE leadership has reconsidered leaving OPEC entirely. Another cut was announced on April 1, smaller than in November. As an indicator of their differences, MBS and MBZ have orchestrated seemingly competing Arab and multilateral summits and other meetings. Instead of attending an Arab summit in Riyadh with visiting Chinese leader Xi Jinping last December, MBZ sent the ruler of the small emirate of Fujairah. MBS did not attend a summit of Middle East leaders in Abu Dhabi in January. MBS reportedly called MBZ’s son and brother to congratulate them on their new roles in the UAE hierarchy, although he apparently did not contact MBZ directly following the reshuffle.