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outbreak of war Sudan After nearly a decade of intense and often tortuous interventions in regional conflicts, the willingness of Gulf powers to pursue a more nuanced approach to statecraft is being tested.
Images of Sudanese troops led by General Abdul Fattah al-Burhan and paramilitary fighters commanded by his erstwhile ally Mohammad Hamdan Dagalo battling to the death in the streets of Khartoum echo the region’s closest The headlines were in stark contrast.
in Yemen, Saudi Arabia It has been swapping prisoners with the Iran-aligned Houthi rebels as it looks to end a war that has been criticized in the West and distracts from Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s economic reform agenda.
this United Arab Emirates Both Washington and Saudi Arabia have mended relations with Iran, moving from armed opposition to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad — an ally of Tehran — to welcoming him back into the Arab camp. Even in Libya, which is still divided by rival armed camps, the fighting has subsided.
“The Gulf countries are focused on Sudan and just want to fix this,” Ken Katzman, a senior adviser at the Soufan Group, told Middle East Eye. “They feel like they can take on whoever wins, but what they don’t need is an escalation.”
The conflict in Sudan is especially inopportune for Saudi Arabia, experts say, because Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s plan to diversify its fossil-fuel-dependent economy relies heavily on the Red Sea coast .
Saudi Arabia’s northern coastline is destined to be the future home of Neom, a futuristic $500 billion megacity. Just days before the fighting broke out in Sudan, Riyadh announced plans to create two special economic zones on the Red Sea.
“Syria on the Sea of Riyadh”
“The last thing Saudi Arabia needs right now is Syria in the Riyadh Sea,” Aziz Alghashian, a Riyadh-based Saudi foreign policy researcher, told Middle East Eye.
“The Saudis really want Sudan to be stable. If Sudan is unstable, the Red Sea project will not be able to fulfill its potential — that’s the anxiety in Riyadh right now.”
While analysts credit Saudi Arabia’s proximity to Sudan as one reason for its more cautious approach to the conflict, they say a deeper shift is also underway at the palace.
In 2015, Saudi Arabia’s then-arrogant defense minister, Mohammed bin Salman, led his country in a deadly war against Yemen’s Houthi rebels. Despite thousands of airstrikes on the impoverished country, the coalition has been unable to dislodge the group.
Riyadh appears to have learned from Yemen the limits of its aggressive foreign policy, said Torbjorn Solvedt, an analyst at venture firm Verisk Maplecroft.
“This cautious shift is largely due to lessons learned from the failed intervention in Yemen. The failure to stem Iranian influence in the region has also tipped Saudi Arabia toward a more conciliatory stance,” he told MEE.
The removal of Omar al-Bashir in 2019 gave Riyadh the chance to deepen its foothold in the mineral-rich strategic neighbour. Last year, it announced plans to invest $3 billion in areas including agriculture, mining and infrastructure in Sudan.
While the Saudis have established ties with Army chief Burhan, they also maintain ties with Rapid Support Force (RSF) commander Dagalo, nicknamed Hemeti. They sit with the United States, Britain and the United Arab Emirates in a “group of four” that has expressed support for Sudan’s democratic transition.
Jacqueline Burns, a former adviser to the US special envoy for Sudan, told MEE that Riyadh may want to see a unified army under the Sudanese army, a stance that favors Burhan and brings them closer to unity. Egypt, Burns said it was clearly supporting the military. In the meantime, they’ve been “hedging” against Hemeti, Burns said.
Saudis in Khartoum
Saudi Arabia’s main emissary is its ambassador, Ali Hassan Jafar. Jafar, who has been stationed in Sudan since 2018, previously served as Riyadh’s ambassador to Russia and is considered one of the country’s most skilled diplomats.
“He played a very important role in the conversations with each side. The Saudis could rely on locals who knew each actor,” Benjamin Ogg, an Africa expert at the French Institute for International Relations, told MEE.
As fighting erupts in Sudan, Saudi Arabia appears to be positioning itself as a mediator. With U.S. support, the Saudis are working with Burhan and Hemeti to hold talks in Riyadh in the coming weeks.hard work comes first Report It was reported by Sky News Arabic and confirmed to MEE by two sources with knowledge of the matter.
On Friday, Khalid bin Bandar, the Saudi ambassador to Britain, said of Riyadh’s role as a mediator, saying: “We have good relations with as many people as possible. When you deal with people You can use it on people when you need it … There is no shortage of conflict in the Middle East. We don’t need more,” he told the BBC.
A steady stream of Western diaspora and Sudanese refugees get away Saudi Arabia’s security also helps bolster Riyadh’s image of neutrality.US President Joe Biden Thanks Saudi Arabia helps evacuate U.S. diplomats.
Some analysts say Riyadh is trying to emulate Qatar, which has won credit for helping Afghanistan withdraw its troops. “MBS is adjusting his sails. He sees an opportunity to be moderate by emphasizing the role of evacuees,” Katzman told MEE.
What Oge described as Saudi Arabia’s “cautious” approach to the conflict contrasts with the UAE’s “bold” approach.
when customers go rogue
The UAE is seen as having close ties to Hemeti, which they pay to provide troops to fight in Yemen.His RSF is also suspected of backing the ranks of Khalifa Haftar, the Libyan military chief and UAE ally, whom the Wall Street Journal says is Report Ammunition was sent to Hemeti in the latest battle.
In his tweet, Hemeti defended the fight by claiming his troops were fighting “radical Islamists,” which Alghashian said could be a nod to the UAE.Meanwhile, military leaders accused of war crimes in Darfur guiding He fought the military in promoting democracy.
After the Arab Spring in 2011, the UAE and Saudi Arabia imposed a blockade on Qatar over allegations it supported the Muslim Brotherhood, which they saw as a threat to their rule. They accused Qatar of funding “terrorists”, an accusation Doha has denied. Since then, the Gulf countries have begun to mend relations.
“Many young people join the RSF instead of the army just to benefit from its high salary levels”
– Jonas Horner, Sudan analyst
Hemeti spent two weeks in the UAE in February, where he met with senior UAE leaders, including the country’s vice president, Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
Independent Sudanese analyst Jonas Horner said the UAE backed Hemeti but could be experiencing some buyer’s remorse as the fighting in Sudan rages on.
“It is likely that the UAE was surprised by the outbreak of fighting. While they maintained a relationship with Hemeti, which gave him financial and military strength, I don’t think it was designed to make him capable of going to war with the Sudanese Armed Forces,” he told MEE.
Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE have investments in Sudan, including large agricultural projects, but Solvedt and Verisk Maplecroft say Riyadh has a smaller footprint.
Abu Dhabi has been building a maritime network extending from Yemeni island socotra island to the unrecognized small country of the Horn of Africa, Somaliland.
In December, Abu Dhabi Ports Group signed a deal to develop a new $6 billion port 200 miles north of Port Sudan. The project highlights the UAE’s intricate web of commercial and geopolitical interests in Sudan. Abu Dhabi Ports is owned by ADQ, a holding company run by the sunglasses-wearing UAE national security chief Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
Katzman told MEE, “Gulf countries have spread their chips at the negotiating table in favor of Burhan and Hemeti, but at the end of the day, the UAE may be more concerned with who is the immediate winner.”
“The Sultan’s General at the Table”
The UAE’s risk appetite may be tested. The partial ceasefire was extended for another 72 hours on Thursday, but fighting continued in Khartoum and much of the country. Many analysts predict that a protracted conflict will require funding and resources.
Horner told MEE that Hemeti’s paramilitary forces started looting, but they were also paid more than their Sudanese army counterparts.
“Many young people join the RSF rather than the military just to benefit from its higher pay levels,” he said. “RSFs are particularly vulnerable to financial stress.”
Two weeks into the fighting, there is little sign that Hemeti’s cash flow has been cut off, an inaction Horner said could be considered “policy.”
Qatar is also on board. Analysts say they have been seeking to restore influence in Sudan since the ouster of Bashir, who has refused to sign on to Saudi and UAE efforts to isolate Doha.Burhan, March travel Traveled to Doha to discuss military cooperation with the Qatari Defense Minister.
But Horner said the main powers likely to put pressure on the rival Sudanese generals were Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt. “They have the ability to bring these generals to the negotiating table and use their financial leverage to stop conflict.”
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