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Mindanao, Philippines – After winning the WBO welterweight victory in Las Vegas in November 2016, international boxing champion Manny Pacquiao visited President Rodrigo Duterte at the Malacanan Presidential Palace in Manila .
When Duterte greeted Pacquiao in the media scrambled, he raised the left hand of the first senator and declared: “This is for the president”, as if he was oiling a possible successor, when the camera flashed by. , He laughed from ear to ear.
A month later, at the boxer’s 38th birthday celebration, the President of the Philippines once again praised Pacquiao, calling him the “future president” in front of his family and thousands of supporters in General Santos, southern Mindanao. .
The relationship between the two most prominent figures in Mindanao has a long history.
In the early 2000s, Duterte placed the budding boxer under his own wings and sponsored a match for him as mayor in the southern city of Davao.
Pacquiao returned his favor by becoming a loyal Duterte assistant.
when Duterte launched what he called the “War on Drugs” in 2016Pacquiao is one of its most ardent supporters and believes that it is necessary to stop the drug trade, although he admitted that he had used methamphetamine and cocaine as a teenager.
The fundamentalist Christian senator also strongly supported the president’s proposal to restore the death penalty, suggesting that those convicted of trafficking in illegal drugs should face execution by the firing squad. Pacquiao once said a famous sentence that even Jesus was sentenced to death. He also claimed that Duterte was anointed by God in order to end the drug threat in the country.
But how much difference a few years can make.
When Pacquiao announced his Running for president of 2022 Last week, Duterte remained silent. Their months-long dispute was made public earlier this year. Pacquiao accused his former allies of corruption in the procurement of anti-COVID-19 supplies. Duterte mocked the boxer for being “drunk” and He belittled his understanding of diplomacy, but the news officially severed Pacquiao’s connection with his former political patron.
When accepting the nomination, Pacquiao said: “I am a fighter, and I will always be a fighter, both in and out of the ring.” “In my life, I haven’t flinched in any battle.”
Manny Pacquiao, a Philippine boxer-born politician, will run for president in next year’s election because President Duterte was barred from being re-elected, but has been selected by rival parties to run for vice president.
Read more➡️ https://t.co/TUEkPdd3zi pic.twitter.com/rNqKuZpLCH
-Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) September 20, 2021
Pacquiao’s candidacy also exposed factionalism within the ruling PDP-Laban party and threatened their support in Mindanao, which is their common hometown and election base.
Armand Dean Nocum, a Manila political analyst and campaign strategist from Zamboanga City, Mindanao, said that the southern vote is vital to Pacquiao and Duterte, and they The split of China will only bring a “lose-to-lose” situation to both sides.
Nokum told Al Jazeera: “They will compete for the same geographic area, which will make way for stronger candidates.” He was referring to the Mayor of Manila. Isco MorenoAs a “dark horse” competitor who can benefit from the rift, Moreno has a “foothold” in this influential area.
Another potential presidential candidate, Vice President Lenny Robredo, Her decision has not yet been announced.
A retired senior military official in Mindanao also told Al Jazeera that if Duterte and Pacquiao’s rival factions cannot bridge their party differences, then the votes from the southern islands “will have to split”.
The former general, who asked not to be named, said that Mindanao voters and Filipinos as a whole are “losing trust in Duterte’s leadership” because of his “failed pandemic response measures, serious corruption allegations, and “non-presidential”. behavior.
“Political Butterfly”
The Philippine Constitution only allows the president of the country to serve for six years. During each presidential election campaign, candidates will often be loyal to those they expect to win, regardless of party affiliation.
Politicians are therefore called “political butterflies”.
Duterte’s own political loyalty has also changed in the past.
In 2010, Duterte led the campaign of his predecessor, Benigno Aquino III, in Davao’s jurisdiction. However, in 2016, he put forward a bid for the chairman and was successfully selected now.
In the same year, Pacquiao ran for the Senate and won, and declared allegiance to Duterte.
But nearly six years later, Pacquiao turned his back on Duterte. However, this is not surprising to the 61 million Filipino voters who have long been familiar with the political pranks they represent.
However, the upcoming presidential campaign on May 9, 2022 is now complicated by Duterte’s obvious tricks.
Duterte Script
Duterte is barred from serving a second term Unprecedented move Accepted the nomination for vice president, and his most trusted assistant, the senator, was nominated for president.
But Go rejected the nomination. Some analysts say that Go has been keeping Duterte’s daughter warm.
Background story: Candidates for national positions must submit their candidacy by October 8. But if they withdraw, they must find a replacement before November 15.
This led analysts to speculate that Duterte might announce a replacement for Go at the last minute.
“In Filipino politics, nothing is impossible because he [Duterte] This has been done in the past,” broadcast reporter PJ dela Pena from Mindanao told Al Jazeera.
“He still has some tricks in his sleeves.”
Duterte set a precedent in the past. At the end of 2015, an unknown PDP-Laban presidential candidate withdrew from the race, paving the way for the involvement of Mindanao politicians.
Duterte announced earlier that he would not run for the election. Despite the increasing support and public relations activities, Duterte participated in the 2016 election at the last minute. Critics called it a trick, claiming that he had been planning to run.
In 2018, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte and his daughter Sara attend a memorial ceremony at the Jewish Holocaust Memorial in Jerusalem [File: Oded Balilty/AP]With the 2022 election approaching, observers said that Duterte’s goal now is to reproduce the sense of suspense he had during the 2016 election. This time, the president’s “surprise candidate” may be his daughter, Sara Duterte-Carpio, the current mayor of Davao City.
Duterte, now 76, can even stage another hat trick by withdrawing his candidacy for vice president. Some people say he is obviously weak. Some media experts said that Duterte might even keep his seat warm for another candidate who has not yet been announced.
They said his game plan was to pair his daughter with a running partner from the north—perhaps Ferdinand Marcos Jr, the son of the late Filipino strongman. Senator Imee Marcos, Marcos’ sister, has already mentioned such a scene, calling it “a game in political paradise.”
However, on Friday, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. announced that he would run for president.
For the old Duterte, he faced Possible prosecution Analysts said that to serve in the International Criminal Court for this deadly drug war, it is important to ensure that he receives legal protection from a friendly successor after he leaves office.
‘Daughter te’
So far, Duterte Carpio has been shy about her plans. In recent weeks, she publicly stated, She will no longer run for president, Citing her own father’s vice presidential candidate.
She cited an agreement with her father that only one of them would run for the presidency. However, the father and daughter served as the mayor and deputy mayor of Davao City respectively, but due to term restrictions, the old Duterte changed their positions when they were unable to stand for election.
Duterte-Carpio continues to deny that she wants to run for president, but she is still touring in several areas of the Philippines, wooing power brokers in various regions.
When asked if she would change her mind if her father withdrew, she told a Philippine newspaper that this was a “hypothetical question” and she “cannot answer at this time.”
However, according to another unnamed Al Jazeera source from Mindanao, campaign materials supporting her candidacy have been distributed in recent weeks in anticipation of an announcement. The sources want to remain anonymous because they do not have the right to talk to the media.
Based on the latest political remarks and her recent behavior, radio reporter Della Pena also told Al Jazeera that he thought Duterte Carpio might run for the election. “I think she is running 90%,” he said.
In Mindanao and other parts of the country, large banners urging Duterte Carpio’s campaign began to appear earlier this year.
The competing political clans even tried to surpass each other by posting “Run, Sara, Run” signs in their areas. Other groups have posted slogans “Daughter-te”, which is a pun on the president’s last name and the word “daughter.”
“What is best for the country”
Pacquiao has stepped into a seemingly crowded political circle.
Political analyst Nokum said that the senator may think that 2022 is his best chance to become president, after which his popularity as an international boxing champion will decline.
“By 2028, he will be another senator who has been fired for inaction in the Senate. So he knows that it is not suitable for him now or forever,” explained Nocum.
This may cause trouble for the Dutertes’ political plans.
Nokum said that as other candidates surrender, especially in the influential northern Luzon, the Duterte and Pacquiao camp will have to rely more on the “traditional stronghold” of Mindanao.
Pacquiao has been working hard to woo the leaders of Mindanao, including former Speaker Pantaleon Alvarez, a politician from the Davao region, and Duterte Carpio. -Carpio) fell out.
The former general from Mindanao, who asked not to be named, also told Al Jazeera that he expected more support for Pacquiao from the South in the near future. He said he doubted whether “Mindanao people still desire the leadership of the current government.” He had asked to remain anonymous so that he could talk about politically sensitive issues more freely.
But for most Mindanao voters, making their region’s candidates the first choice for presidential candidates is now more important than 2016. De La Pena said he has reported on several campaigns in his career.
“I think that over time, under the leadership of the Duterte administration, the situation has changed. People are really testing his leadership, especially during the pandemic,” he told Al Jazeera.
He added 2017 siege of Malawi -This has left a city in ruins and thousands of people have been displaced-may be a factor. Others accused the Davao region of receiving more infrastructure funding than other regions in Mindanao.
“So, I don’t think voters care about the votes to split Mindanao, but about electing a leader who is most beneficial to the country.”
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