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Dr Umair Hasan, Dr Abdessamad Tridane and Dr Hamad Al Jassmi from the UAE Centre for Mobility Research, UAE University, Dr Farida Al Hosani from the Abu Dhabi Public Health Centre, and Dr Bashir Aden and Dr Anderson Stanciole from the Abu Dhabi Public Health Centre Abu Dhabi The Dhabi Ministry of Health is involved in multidisciplinary collaborative research.
Dr Farida, Director of the Infectious Diseases Unit at the Abu Dhabi Public Health Centre, said: “The traditional approach to epidemiological modelling is to use historical medical data to predict future trajectories of epidemic transmission. The most popular and well-established method, but it lacks the empirical component necessary to link predicted infection and mortality rates to the implementation of precautionary measures taken by authorities to limit the spread of the disease. We establish them with increases and decreases in the number of infections are directly related, so we have a way to assess the most effective decision-making, whether for this epidemic or any subsequent epidemics.”
Dr Al Jassmi, Director of the UAE Centre for Mobility Research, said: “The scientific assumption behind our approach is that the more mobile a society is, especially between crowded places and infected hotspots, the faster the disease will spread. , so we have an indicator that indirectly predicts expected infections. This tool can help policymakers assess the impact of preventive measures that may reduce unsafe mobility and thus limit the spread of disease.”
He added: “We rely on Facebook to provide us with big data on the mobility of users of social media platforms, which includes anonymous mobile data of users of WhatsApp, Facebook and Instagram apps, without sensitive information related to user identities. In our development After , experiments and analyses, we observed that those models based on large mobile data were equally effective at predicting transmission dynamics compared to traditional epidemiological models. We have published our findings in a top scientific journal in the field of health policy One of them, the Journal of Infectious Disease Modelling, to share the UAE’s research experience in epidemiological modelling with a global association of experts.”
Dr Hassan, senior researcher at the UAE Centre for Mobility Research, said: “The novelty of our approach is that it is the first to link the spread of an epidemic to real-time changes in population mobility. This way, authorities can dynamically adjust lockdown strategies without the need for extensive computing requirements. .As lockdowns place an economic burden on cities, this is a useful tool for responding to epidemics. Future work will rely on post-vaccination data to improve epidemiological models that have been developed to further predict what can happen when the pandemic ends. Implement strategies to ease measures and return to normalcy safely.”
The research team was previously involved in the project “Mathematical Modelling of COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics in the UAE”, which won the 2021 UAE Innovation Award in the category “Best Innovation in Digital Leadership”. The new study is a continuation of an existing research collaboration between the UAE University, the Ministry of Health and the Abu Dhabi Public Health Centre on epidemiological modelling.
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