Abu Dhabi: Why UAE drone strike could mark a dangerous turning point

(CNN) deadly drone attack Heart of the United Arab Emirates Leaders in the region are trying Heals years-long fissures.

On Monday, strikes hit fuel trucks near Abu Dhabi airport, causing multiple explosions that killed three people. Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen Quickly claimed to have launched the attack.

In response, the UAE and Saudi Arabia struck Yemen’s capital Sana’a with airstrikes, killing at least 12 people in the city’s deadliest bombing since 2019.

In addition to escalating violence in a region trying to turn the page on a decade of proxy warfare, the exchange of fire could overshadow a series of high-level talks between regional and international enemies. Negotiations between Iran and Western powers on how to revive a 2015 agreement to limit Tehran’s nuclear program have recently shown signs of progress. There are also signs that historic but difficult discussions between Saudi Arabia and regional rival Iran are beginning to bear fruit.

But an unprecedented Houthi attack in Abu Dhabi could spell trouble for those talks.

If the rebels deliver on their promises and launch further strikes, it could dent the UAE’s image as a safe place to live, work and do business in a troubled region.

Below is information about the crisis.

Why are Houthi attacks so bad?

In addition to being the UAE’s first deadly attack in years, Monday’s drone strike demonstrated the Houthis’ ability to launch a long-range attack. Yemeni rebels frequently cross the border to strike Yemen’s neighbor Saudi Arabia, but these strikes are relatively short-range compared to Abu Dhabi, and the vast majority of missiles and drones are intercepted before they hit their targets.

Oil prices soared in the wake of the attacks, sparking a flurry of international condemnation from the United States and other world leaders. UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed asked the US to reclassify the Houthis as a foreign terrorist organization – a label created in the final days of the Trump administration and later replaced by President Joe Biden lifted.

The Houthis have previously claimed strikes against the UAE, which it does not have a border with. But UAE authorities have never acknowledged the alleged attack, a claim that many observers see as far-fetched.

Now Yemen’s Houthis have made good on their years-long threat to the UAE, the main coalition partner in a six-year Saudi-led military campaign aimed at crushing Iran-backed rebels.

In 2019, the UAE withdrew most of its troops from Yemen after privately deeming the war unwinnable. The movement has failed to crush the rebels, but has inflicted enormous humanitarian toll, with thousands of Yemenis dead and widespread malnutrition and disease.

More recently, however, the UAE has returned to the fray, supporting Yemeni groups such as Oil-rich Shabwa and Malibu provinces And fight off the Houthi fighters from the strategic desert town.

Now, analysts say, the rebels are eager to trigger another UAE withdrawal.

“The intervention of the UAE-backed forces was a game-changer. It angered the Houthis,” said Maged al-Madhaji, executive director and co-founder of the Center for Strategic Studies in Sana’a. “The Houthis are trying to create some kind of balance by creating an image of stability and security in the UAE.”

What risks does the UAE face?

For decades, the oil-rich country has managed to avoid political upheaval elsewhere in the region. Stability is one of the UAE’s main selling points – helping to attract millions of expats and billions of dollars in foreign investment – but that image could be shattered if the conflict with the Houthis escalates.

The UAE relies heavily on foreign workers, who make up the vast majority of the country’s workforce. The authorities centrally manage the country’s reputation, and freedom of political speech is practically non-existent. Defenders of restrictions on speech argue that they are necessary to maintain stability in a conflict-ridden Middle East.

But over the years, the UAE’s hard-line foreign policy – intervening in Egypt, Libya, Syria and the Horn of Africa in addition to Yemen – has endangered that stability. Off the coast of the United Arab Emirates, Abu Dhabi quickly changed tack in 2019 when tankers were targeted by its regional foe Iran.

Since then, it has been on a diplomatic spree to bridge years of rifts. It has made a number of proposals to Iran, including reportedly sending a high-level delegation again in October 2019 and in late 2021. It also mended ties with Syria’s pariah President Bashar al-Assad after backing armed groups trying to overthrow him in that country’s war. The UAE leader has repeatedly said it seeks to be a de-escalating force in the region.

Monday’s attack, however, underscored what many observers have already made, that the opening of a new chapter in a bloody decade of proxy warfare will neither be smooth nor a quick one. All countries in the region, not just the UAE, will have a vested interest in Monday’s rapid de-escalation of violence.

Has Iran been involved in the Houthi attack on the UAE?

we do not know. What we do know is that the drones were likely supplied by Iran, the Houthis’ main backer in the war with the internationally recognized government in Yemen. But it is unclear whether Houthi supporters in Tehran ordered the strike or if the rebel group had suddenly gone rogue.

This is not the first time that groups allied with Iran have appeared to go their own way. In November 2021, Esmail Qaani, head of Iran’s elite Quds Force, visited Iraqi Prime Minister Mostafa al-Kadhimi shortly after. Attempt to kill Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Kadimi Iranian-backed militia. Some observers see the visit as an effort to distance Iran from its militant ally.

Another reason for suspicions that the Houthis acted voluntarily is that Iran has repeatedly expressed its desire to restore relations with its regional foes. Iran’s new hardline president, Ibrahim Raisi, has received at least two invitations to visit the UAE, according to Iranian state media.

In statements condemning the Abu Dhabi attack, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have uncharacteristically avoided blaming the rebel group’s supporters in Tehran. Iran has not publicly commented on the attack.

However, as ever, Iran’s leadership is difficult to decipher. The Lebanese news network Al Mayadeen reported that Raisi met the head of the Sanaa negotiating team in Tehran on Monday on the day of the attack. Some observers see this as acknowledging responsibility for the Abu Dhabi attack.

What does this mean for Iran nuclear talks?

Monday’s violence threatens to derail nuclear talks in Vienna, as well as parallel talks between Saudi Arabia and Iran, seen as critical to the success of a possible second version of the deal in 2015.

If Iran is believed to be behind Monday’s attack in Abu Dhabi — as they were widely accused of being responsible for the 2019 attack on the ARAMCO refinery (which Iran denies) — then confidence-building measures could crumble, it It’s hard to see how the negotiations can continue.

On the other hand, if Iran bends the Houthis as a prelude to its regional foes, Monday’s violence could end and talks could continue, possibly unabated.

CNN’s Sarah El Sirgany contributed to this report in Abu Dhabi.