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Adnoc expansion: Abu Dhabi National Oil Company to shorten oil production curve to 2025

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The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) is expected to advance its plan to expand oil production capacity to 5 million barrels per day by 2025, ahead of its previous 2030 target, led by improving market fundamentals.

Multiple people familiar with the development told Upstream that the state-owned giant is fast moving forward with several field development projects, mainly led by some of the largest offshore fields in Abu Dhabi.

The fast-track capacity ramp-up plan is likely to be approved by the company’s board, which is due to meet in November, one of the people said.

The statements are in line with a Bloomberg report on Sunday that pointed to growing production in the United Arab Emirates and a shift in Adnoc’s goals.

production cut

Adnoc accounts for almost all of the UAE’s oil production, with current oil capacity exceeding 4 million bpd, but is said to be close to 3.4 million bpd, in line with output targets set by the broader OPEC+ group.

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Another source said that while Adnoc is currently cutting production, it could quickly expand to well above 4 million bpd in the short term if needed.

“Adnoc is producing well above 4 million bpd in 2020 and can ramp up to those levels if needed,” an industry source said.

Offshore expansion

Some of Abu Dhabi’s major offshore fields, including Upper Zakum, Lower Zakum, Umm Shaif and Berbazem, are expected to play a key role in the emirate’s capacity-boosting plans.

Project watchers told Upstream that Adnoc will offer multiple engineering, procurement and construction contracts over the next two years as it now targets a massive capacity ramp-up by 2025, surpassing its previous 2030 target.

Another person said Abu Dhabi is studying the prospect of increasing its oil production capacity to more than 5 million barrels per day, but has yet to set a timetable for implementation.

Industry experts point out that OPEC giants in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, are believed to be getting closer to their production caps and have limited capacity.

Amid a persistent global upstream investment shortage over the past decade, both the UAE and Saudi Arabia are investing billions of dollars to rapidly expand their oil and gas production capacity to meet growing energy demand.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have both announced long-term net-zero targets, but are also accelerating their oil-based development plans, largely due to a greater focus on carbon capture and hydrogen investment.

An Adnoc spokesman declined to confirm expansion numbers to Upstream, but said the company would continue to explore opportunities.

“As we embrace the energy transition and future-proof our business, we will continue to explore potential opportunities that can further unlock value, unlock capital and improve returns,” the spokesperson said.

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