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As early as April 2021, I thought that a full-scale disaster in the form of a prolonged civil war in Afghanistan could still be avoided, but this requires the Taliban to do two things.
First, the organization had to respond reasonably to the news that US President Joe Biden suddenly announced the complete and unconditional withdrawal of all US troops from Afghanistan before September 11. At the time, the Taliban believed that this was a violation of the 2020 Doha Agreement between the group and the United States in February.
Second, the Taliban must provide credible assurances that returning to Kabul will reduce violence and will not erode the rights of citizens, especially the rights of women and minorities.
At that time and now, the high degree of polarization between Afghans and the fear of what the Taliban did during the brief rule from 1996 to 2001, as well as the strong opposition to the Islamic emirate in the region, could trigger conflicts. If the organization Attempts to forcibly enter the capital-especially now that President Ashraf Ghani has accepted his resignation may be imminent.
The speed of the Taliban’s advancement and the lack of resistance it has faced so far surprised all parties, including the Taliban’s leaders. But this should not make anyone ignore the fact that throughout modern history, no political, religious or racial group, regardless of its size, can be together without reaching a political settlement with all other countries. The land enjoys complete hegemony and legitimacy. Group.
The Taliban has made exciting progress precisely because it realizes that it cannot maintain and maintain control based on the exclusive narrative of Pashtun nationalism. On the contrary, the North is forming local alliances with local Uzbek, Tajik and other communities. Military power has never been Afghanistan’s solution, nor can it bring peace and prosperity to today’s country.
Taliban tested
However, the irony is that the Taliban’s ability to control, protect, and most importantly supply these areas will be tested for the first time. The overnight shift in movement’s responsibilities is huge—from a guerrilla unit that relies on supplies provided to it by the local community, it is transforming into an authority that controls the space of a complex city.
In many provinces that have fallen into the hands of the Taliban, the first and most important requirement, especially those provinces whose fighters have not encountered any resistance, such as Paktika, is an acceptable level of stability, justice and dignity. Taliban fighters disrupt people’s lives, drive them out of villages, rob houses and carry out summary executions that will haunt the movement and contribute to conflicts in the coming years.
The desire to represent the Afghan people is accompanied by the responsibility of governing and maintaining the country. The Taliban leaders acknowledged this to some extent. They have issued an amnesty statement and ordered combatants to protect community assets and avoid retaliation in recently occupied areas.
In July 2019, the Taliban jointly announced at an internal meeting in Afghanistan in Doha that it is vital to avoid civilian casualties, support the displaced, and protect public infrastructure. However, with the emergence of a large number of local reports, the movement is working to prevent cases of abuse and control the behavior of young fighters stimulated by the spoils of urban centers.
If the peaceful rhetoric of the Taliban political leaders continues to match the reality of local atrocities, the 2020 agreement with the United States and its effectiveness to any degree will be threatened.
This has forced the United States to take action to support the Afghan government and join the airstrike against the Taliban. The United States is deploying thousands of soldiers to Afghanistan to protect American citizens, as are the United Kingdom, Canada, and Germany. If these violent scenes continue to be broadcast, even Qatar, as the host of the Taliban Political Committee and the internal negotiations between Afghanistan, will face greater pressure both domestically and internationally.
The chaotic collapse of existing institutions in Afghanistan, including the military, police, and civil service, will expose the Taliban to nightmares similar to those in Iraq and Syria. The organization will find that in addition to the thousands of qualified men and women evacuated from NATO countries, many intellectuals, investors, and technically capable people have already left the country for Turkey, the UAE, Pakistan, and India. The Taliban must remember that in this case, it will always be under the control of Pakistan and fall into the political shadow of India.
What should the Taliban do to avoid disaster?
The rapid advance of the Taliban expelled some traditional warlords in Afghanistan: Abdul Rashid Dostum fled to Uzbekistan, Ata Mohamed Nur reportedly left the country, Ismail Khan Under house arrest in Herat. As they leave the political arena, many fragmented factions in Kabul no longer speak in the same different tone. They are doing their best to put aside their differences and unite the front.
The Taliban should show humility in their victory and listen carefully to the government’s solution to avoid bloodshed in Kabul, a city of 6 million civilians. In view of all that has been said before, the formation of a transitional government is inevitable, which will allow this country to survive the coming dark days.
Any transitional government must be inclusive, respectful of all parties, and go beyond the position of the current president. This inclusive structure is necessary to legitimize any consultative committee’s decision to choose the form and leadership of a new administrative agency.
The Taliban must protect all state institutions, including civil servants, and do their utmost to ensure that they continue to operate. This is an important lesson for Iraq and Syria: No transitional arrangements should abolish the armed forces or the civil service.
Finally, in order to be able to pay the salaries of civil servants, including health and education, the Taliban must improve relations with the international donor community. It can start to do so, protect their mission at home, and ensure that it adopts a zero tolerance policy for all forms of human rights violations, especially violations against women and girls. This is not because the West is more concerned about these issues, but because Islam is based on these principles.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.
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