Can the UAE help strike a planet-saving methane deal at COP28?

Environmental advocates have reason to doubt that the head of a national oil company can credibly lead the way at the upcoming United Nations climate summit, COP28, to the strong climate mitigation measures needed to address the climate emergency, especially Plans for massive oil and gas expansion This is inconsistent with the 2015 Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

What can the United Arab Emirates led by CEO Dr. Sultan Al Jaber do? ADNOC, as the head of COP 28 this fall, actually delivering to keep the planet safe? Al Jaber has a job on his shoulders that many environmental advocates don’t believe he can do.

But… maybe he could. Maybe he can take the lead in reducing methane—the fastest way to cool the planet in time to avoid a self-amplifying feedback loop that pushes the planet past a series of impending tipping points.At COP28, maybe the UAE can convene other state-owned oil majors who oppose climate action and fight for Global Methane Protocol.

That won’t satisfy many climate advocates, who see efforts to reduce methane leaks from the fossil fuel industry as a moral hazard that could extend the life of an industry that is destroying the planet. These advocates hope that we should all get to 100% clean energy as quickly as possible and create a just transition from clean energy to a zero-emissions future.

The challenge is that while we are rapidly expanding clean energy, it has not yet replaced fossil fuel energy systems. Traditional industries will not be eliminated until there is enough clean energy to replace them. How quickly can this transition happen? In the most optimistic scenario, this will last until 2040. Public pressure and mounting lawsuits could accelerate the process.But state-owned enterprises Controls nearly three-quarters of the world’s crude oil and natural gas production; and estimated The oil and gas industry is responsible for 75% of global methane emissions From the countries in which they operate, according to the International Energy Agency.

Even if we succeed in transitioning to clean energy and net zero emissions by 2040, which is a very ambitious goal, our continued emissions will continue a self-amplifying feedback loop, with the planet warming itself and quickly taking us beyond A series of irreversible tipping points in the next decade from which we may not recover.

Importantly, even the most aggressive Decarbonization would only avoid 0.1C of warming by mid-century. This is because CO2 from most fossil fuels is co-emitted with cooling sulfate aerosols, which exposes current warming when sulfates fall off (which they can happen within days once fossil power plants shut down). Result: Net warming for the first decade.we have to, but Deception and delay tactics in the fossil fuel industry We have too little time for decarbonization to constrain near-term temperatures.

In contrast, reducing methane can Avoid nearly 0.3 degrees Celsius of warming by 2050 — Three times more than CO2 reduction. This is the only way we currently know to slow near-term warming.

Reducing methane emissions is the short-term sprint we need to win in this critical decade, while reducing carbon dioxide emissions is the mid-term marathon. The real moral hazard we face is failing to tackle climate change in a timely manner—failing to win the sprint fast enough and prevent the damaging effects on us when we start to cross the tipping point.

The fossil fuel industry is ripe for action today, with more than 100 oil and gas companies, including those in Oil and Gas Methane Partnership, has worked to reduce overall upstream oil and gas methane emissions.Many companies are also supporting Zero conventional flaring by 2030. These actions make economic sense because Half of methane reductions could be done at negative costleaving more products to sell in a tight market.

Currently, 150 countries have also committed to reducing human-caused methane emissions by at least 30% by 2030. Global Methane Pledge. In support of this commitment, this week the US and EU Energy Commissions noted in their statements that Joint Statement “Effective global programs are needed to limit leaks, emissions, and flaring,” as well as joint progress toward developing international standards for leak detection and quantification of methane emissions.

But the pledge remains voluntary, and the world’s largest methane emitters — Russia, China and India — have yet to make one.because Reducing methane emissions is now the most important single strategy to slow near-term warmingmust move from commitments to strong sectoral commitments for a mandatory methane agreement.

Human-caused methane emissions come from three sectors – fossil fuels (35%), waste (20%) and agriculture (40%). Oil, gas and coal should be the first sectors covered by a global methane agreement. (Methane reduction has become a key measure in recent climate change efforts in the oil and gas industry.) The waste and agriculture sectors will follow under separate agreements later.

Al Jaber should use COP28 to reach an agreement to minimize methane emissions from the oil and gas industry in the shortest possible time.This needs to involve state-owned energy companies in the climate solution, as US climate envoy John Kerry recently noticed. COP28 presents an opportunity for the UAE and the global climate community.

The UAE is in a unique position to bring other state-owned oil and gas companies together in support of methane emissions reductions, a first step towards a methane sector agreement. Such action by national oil and gas exporting companies is crucial to demonstrate the will to act on climate change and to compete with private sector companies and countries such as the US and EU that are taking aggressive action to reduce methane emissions.

As importers become increasingly concerned about the life cycle emissions of their imported products, the oil and gas industry’s lower methane emissions will become an increasingly competitive advantage in the global market. Furthermore, in recent years, state-owned enterprises have increasingly turned to private equity markets for capital; as global investors begin to prioritize low-emissions investments, the life-cycle emissions of state-owned oil and gas companies will come under greater scrutiny if they do not As listed private sector companies are required to reduce emissions, their financing may be limited. And welcome the announcement of the creation of the Dubai Methane Gold, which will help the rest of the methane industry and fund the R&D needed for methane removal technologies.

But as Al Jaber recently said“The oil and gas industry needs to be more competitive, do more, and do it faster,” he added, “Let’s aim for net zero methane emissions by 2030“

we agree. The UAE and all countries should reach a binding international agreement on methane reductions in the oil and gas sector, a key outcome of COP 28.

Paul Bledsoe is a professorial lecturer at the American University Center for Environmental Policy and a former Clinton White House climate official.

Woodzalk He is the chair of the Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development (IGSD) in Washington, DC and Paris, and an adjunct professor at the Brunn School of Environmental Science and Management at the University of California, Santa Barbara.