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Abu Dhabi sees itself as an actor of international significance. Leading the charge is Mohammed bin Zayed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and President of the United Arab Emirates (UAE).While the UAE’s deteriorating relationship with the US may be improvethe country now neatly balances East and West.
Although the UAE has a historic relationship with the United States, it has been deepening ties with Russia. Both countries engage in cautious joint engagement with peripheral states. From Senegal to Sudan, common interests across Africa bear witness to the UAE-Russia partnership.
Power struggle in Sudan
since Resign Appointment of civilian Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdok in January. He had already been ousted in a coup led by the general last October, and his brief return was only due to international pressure, mainly from Washington.
Since Hamdok’s departure, a power struggle between Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the head of the Transitional Sovereign Council, and his deputy, General Mohammad Agalo “Hamiti”, has unfolded. The Sudanese actor is courting the UAE as the rivalry between Burhan and Hermiti quietly intensifies. Abu Dhabi accepted such an offer, and Tanu bin Zayed, the UAE National Security Adviser and brother of Mohammed bin Zayed, decided to back Hemiti. So is Russia.
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Burhan sought to consolidate his position by centralizing power within agencies such as the Defense Ministry and maintaining formal relationships with regional allies. This has allowed the ministry to increase its control over Port Sudan and other industrial enterprises in the eastern region.By doing so, Burhan attempts to reduce here and his main backer, the UAE, to secure their own and Russia’s access to the region.
Moscow has long struggled to secure naval access to Port Sudan, but the deal continues to be delayed as Khartoum tries to gain greater financial and political support. It is worth noting that Burhan did not speak out against the UAE and Russia, but out of a major demand to ensure his own control over Sudan. Burhan sought to balance internal power dynamics while managing the tainted legacy of former president Omar al-Bashir with the whims and expectations of the international stage.
Burhan recently visited Egypt, Libya and Chad in an attempt to strengthen his own centrality to Sudan’s future. This is done through high-level relationships with regional actors. In addition, Burhan deployed Gibril Ibrahim, leader of the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), Saudi Arabia Secure short-term funding for Sudan.
Just as Burhan made his move, Hemeti fought back. The President of Chad’s chief of staff is his cousin and an outstanding negotiator for key figures in the Darfur region. There are even reports that the governor of Darfur, Minnie Minaway, Getting ready to leave Burhan’s league and stand with Hermity.However, this dynamic is very subtle because Hemeti is Janjaweed People who commit mass violence in Darfur. The repercussions of these power struggles within Sudan are extremely dangerous. After several coups, there is a real risk of another civil war.
UAE and Russia join hands
Sudan is still under persistent U.S.-led sanctions after the coup toppled Hamdok. In this context, the UAE acts as a facilitator and provider of much-needed funds. By doing so, the UAE is supporting Sudan’s military-led government, developing its network in Khartoum, and avoiding any potential transfer of power to a civilian government.
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While supporting the military’s role in Sudan’s political structure, Abu Dhabi has also sought to develop links with key civilian actors. The UAE is nurturing Osama Daoud, a billionaire businessman with close ties to the military.he is the chairman Dahl Group, with offices in the UAE. Daoud reportedly maintained a very close relationship with Tahnoon bin Zayed, and it was through this dynamic that $6 billion The investment project was successfully passed.
Abu Dhabi Ports Group will build a new port north of Port Sudan, complete with a free zone. In addition, Sudan’s central bank will deposit $300 million, which will help ease criticism the country faces for its lack of progress on civilian government. The UAE also signed an agreement to develop a large agricultural project in eastern Sudan that will export its products through a new port. While the West has been trying to force the military to cede power, the UAE has been making deals with key military and military-backed players that will only further expand their influence in Sudan.
The timing and decision to increase financial aid to Sudan is critical. Now it’s obvious, UAE Support Hermity. In the past, he has demonstrated his loyalty to Abu Dhabi by supplying large numbers of soldiers to southern Yemen, where Hemeti’s soldiers helped protect key areas of Houthi forces. Now, Russia may be joining forces with the UAE to support Hemeti.This Wagner GroupIf civil war breaks out in Sudan, Russia’s shadowy mercenaries could intervene.Hermity has visited Moscow Has repeatedly received military aid and intelligence support from Russia Internet Research Institute.
Against Hemiti, Burhan tried to win the support of the UAE. In March 2022, Burhan visited the UAE without the support of Abu Dhabi. As a result, he recently ordered the release of some Islamic prisoners, a move that angered the UAE and brought it closer to Hermiti.
The United States is watching the UAE’s involvement in Sudan, especially as Abu Dhabi and Moscow are working together to support the same horse. In essence, Washington’s long-term plan to establish a civilian government in Sudan and bring peace to Sudan is being scrapped by Abu Dhabi. Not only is the UAE eradicating the last vestiges of Sudanese democracy, but it is also enabling Moscow to extend its influence beyond Eurasia. Washington will not be happy if Moscow gains naval access in Sudan. However, as Abu Dhabi and Moscow cooperate to achieve common goals, it cannot do much. Sudan’s dynamics clearly reveal the UAE’s centrality to changing power dynamics in the Middle East, whether in the Persian Gulf or the Red Sea.
Sudan has been on the fringes of international attention. The new democratic government has no support from the international community. This makes the country vulnerable to external design. The transition to civilian rule failed when the UAE and Russia supported the military elite to achieve their strategic interests. If Sudan falls back into civil war, Russia may provide Hemiti with security aid, while the UAE will provide funding. In the process, Abu Dhabi will acquire economic assets that have been devalued by the conflict. Any internal conflict and civil war would allow Russia and the UAE to secure their long-term interests in the Horn of Africa and beyond.
[Arab Digest first published this article and is a partner of Fair Observer.]
The views expressed in this article are the authors’ own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policies.
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