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Prague, Czech Republic- Analysts say that the victory of the so-called “democratic bloc” IPU over Prime Minister André Babis in the recent Czech elections has inspired other opposition forces that want to defeat populist strongmen in Europe.
The two electoral coalitions that make up the democratic bloc — center-right Spolu and liberal Pierstein — won 108 of the 200 seats in parliament last week.
This means that although Babis’s ANO party will control 72 seats, the populist billionaire has little choice in establishing a functioning government.
During the election campaign to co-operate to defeat Babis, point out the prime minister’s numerous financial scandals and their claims of disastrous management of the pandemic. The five democratic parties have been discussing in detail the issue of forming a government among them.
However, in the past eight years, the prime ministers who have helped ANO stay in the government with their huge economic and media power and populist policies seem to be ready to test their unity.
He will rely on the help of his ally President Milos Zeman. Although on October 10, a few days after the election, he was urgently sent to the intensive care unit due to an undeclared “chronic disease”, but the health of the head of state The situation is a major issue.
If the president is too unsuited to mediate government negotiations, the democratic group will have a clear path. However, Zeman’s camp stated that his situation has now stabilized and he is closely monitoring the situation in the Prague hospital bed.
Babis claimed that just a few minutes before Zeman was taken away by an ambulance, he had promised to use the constitutional power to reappoint the billionaire as prime minister.
It is suspected that the president and prime minister may try to extend the negotiations in order to split the democratic bloc.
There are many differences that may be used as anti-Babis glue to keep the unity of the democratic group on the normal track pass through [though?] Movement is weakened.
The Civic Democratic Party (ODS) is a Euroskeptic and extremely conservative leader of the Spolu faction, and has long been seen as a potential target. The potential for conflict with other countries in the democratic bloc that are keen to adopt the euro, accept the EU’s climate change policy, or legalize same-sex marriage is obvious.
Sean Hanley, associate professor of Central and Eastern European politics at University College London, said: “During the campaign, these deep differences were put on hold.”
Marketa Adamova, the leader of Spolu’s other party, Top09, admitted that the five-member group had “helped” in recent months, but insisted that the alliance will continue to exist even if there is no common enemy.
Most analysts have the same expectations. At least before the cabinet was formed.
Turn the tide of populism?
One factor that helped solidify the unity during the campaign was Viktor Orban’s high-profile support for Babis.
The political scientist Vladimira Dvorakova stated that the praise of the Czech billionaire by the Prime Minister of Hungary and the aspiring spiritual leader of liberal populism in Central Europe and Africa “frightened the opposition camp. Living hell”.
“The appearance of Orban mobilized the democratic group’s vote,” Dvorakova said. “People are shocked that Babis wants to capture the Czech Republic in the same direction that Orban captured Hungary.”
But Babis’ failure was not the only blow to Orbán’s dream of creating a hotbed of anti-liberal populism on October 9.
On the same day that the Czech billionaire lost his foothold, Sebastian Kurz was forced to resign as Austrian Chancellor due to a corruption scandal.
This synchronicity only encourages people to claim that China and Europe, free from the influence of former US President Donald Trump, are now moving in a new direction.
“New York Times” bureau chief Andrew Higgins wrote that these events “show that the wave of populism in Eastern and Central Europe is receding, stagnating because of the growing solidarity of its opponents and the crisis of confidence following the defeat of the former US president.” . Eastern and Central Europe.
The process allegedly began 18 months ago when Robert Fico, who had ruled Slovak politics for ten years, was replaced by a coalition of centrist and right-wing parties.
Jan Rovny, an associate professor at the School of Political Sciences in Paris, said that the successful removal of Babis by the democratic group was seen as another signpost, even a “handbook for defeating populists and non-liberals.”
He said that this is a blueprint being studied by the Hungarian opposition.
After the failed unanimous efforts before the last election in 2018, Orban once again won the constitutional majority. Six different parties from the left, liberals and even the former extreme right are organizing to challenge the strongman in next year’s vote.
However, Jobbik’s vice president Marton Gyongosi said that the Hungarian opposition could hardly learn from the Czech election because Orbán had already established a foothold in a racially discriminatory system.
Analysts say that although Babis controls a large part of the Czech media, he has never had enough power to change the election or judicial system like his Hungarian counterparts.
“Nevertheless, seeing the downfall of any Orban ally brings hope to the cooperation of the Hungarian Democratic Opposition,” Jin Gesi admitted.
Hanley suggested that the budding cooperation between Poland’s center-right opposition, aimed at overthrowing Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s Law and Justice (PiS) party, might benefit more from the lessons of the Czech Republic. .
“Babis was not overthrown by modern liberals like the Pirate Party who lost the election, but by conservative mainstream parties,” he said. “The lesson is that if the center-right can avoid the temptation to turn to the right to compete, then the center-right is the key to defeating populism.”
“The unlikely hero of the Czech Republic is ODS leader Peter Fiala. He let his strongly conservative social views and Euroscepticism fade into the background, playing the role of the’wise captain’ of Czech politics.”
Despite the efforts of Zeman and Babis, most people predict that he will inevitably become prime minister. Whether the captain and his associates can maintain unity and help the country recover from populism remains to be seen.
The lessons of Slovakia show that once the anti-populist enthusiasm is exhausted, the pressure of power will soon surface differences, and the ruling coalition there is faltering in crisis after crisis.
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