[ad_1]
As North Korea gets closer to its first nuclear test in five years, one of the biggest worries for the United States and its allies may be a relatively small explosion.
Kim Jong-un has made it clear that he wants to build a “tactical” nuclear arsenal, meaning low-yield bombs that can be used on battlefields rather than entire cities. First, it must produce miniaturized warheads to fit an expanding array of short-range ballistic missiles to threaten the U.S. military and its allies in Asia.
This week, Kim Jong-un said a flurry of missiles launched in recent days was aimed at tactical nuclear strikes, while warning Washington that any attempted strikes could be hit by U.S. forces in South Korea and Japan. The comments are a new sign that North Korea may be preparing for its first nuclear test since September 2017, and the United States has been sounding alarm bells for months.
“In order to mass-produce tactical weapons, Kim Jong-un will need to conduct a seventh nuclear test, with the aim of creating a more powerful weapon with a lighter warhead,” said Moon Seong-Mook, a former South Korean military general and current chief. Korea National Institute for Strategic Studies in Seoul.
Although more than 2,000 nuclear device tests were conducted in the decades following the U.S. bombing of Japan in 1945, North Korea remains the only country this century to physically detonate an atomic bomb, according to the Arms Control Association. Nuclear powers like the United States now rely on supercomputers to simulate testing of their weapons to predict performance and reliability.
“I believe North Korea has successfully miniaturized all available warheads so they can be mounted on missiles,” Moon said.
Kim Jong-un has embarked on a two-pronged nuclear strategy to develop tactical weapons for the Asian region and more powerful thermonuclear devices for long-range missiles that can hit the continental United States. The United States, Japan and South Korea have all said North Korea is preparing to conduct tests at its mountainous Punggye-ri test site, where six previous tests have been conducted.
“North Korea clearly believes that nuclear testing is essential to have confidence in its nuclear weapons capabilities,” said Katsuhisa Furukawa, a senior analyst at the Open Nuclear Network, referring to North Korea’s official name. “It is reasonable to assume that North Korea has greatly improved its ability to develop small nuclear warheads.”
“Tactical” is an inaccurate term for nuclear weapons that can be used in a theater, which, in the case of North Korea, could include South Korean, Japanese and U.S. assets in places like Guam. Tactical weapons have less powerful warheads and shorter ranges. The explosive yield may be less than 1 kiloton, but many are in the tens of kilotons.
[TheUSatomicbombdroppedonHiroshimain1945hadayieldofabout15kilotonsNorthKorea’slastnuclearweaponstestin2017wasestimatedtoyieldaround120-250kilotons[1945年美国在广岛投下的原子弹当量约为15千吨。朝鲜在2017年进行的最后一次核武器试验估计当量约为120-250千吨。
Tactical nuclear weapons can still cause massive damage, and nonproliferation advocates believe their use could quickly spiral out of control. U.S. President Joe Biden warned last week that any use of such weapons by Ukrainian President Vladimir Putin could lead to a “doomsday” concern.
North Korea’s boasting of its tactical weapons has sparked a debate in South Korea over whether Seoul should work with its U.S. allies to bring tactical weapons to the Korean peninsula. Deputy Defense Secretary Shin Pham-chul dismissed the idea on Thursday, telling SBS radio on Thursday that a better way to deter North Korea would be the “timely and coordinated deployment of strategic assets on hand to the Korean peninsula”.
Furukawa and other experts, who served on a U.N. panel of experts monitoring sanctions on North Korea, will be watching closely to see if the regime’s next test is at Tunnel 3 at the site. This is considered a possible site for detonation of low air pressure – providing warheads for tactical weapons.
Meanwhile, Lee Choon-geun, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for Science and Technology Policy, said Tunnel 4 is believed to be reserved for testing larger thermonuclear devices.
Just before Biden’s inauguration in January 2021, Kim Jong-un created a nuclear weapons program that calls for the use of smaller, lighter weapons. He also urged the development of a solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile that could deploy quickly and strike strategic targets within a range of 15,000 kilometers (9,320 miles) — a vague reference to the United States.
North Korea’s leader oversaw the launch of two long-range cruise missiles that flew over the country in a figure-eight shape with a combined range of about 2,000 kilometers, the Korean Central News Agency reported on Thursday. The cruise missile, which can carry a nuclear warhead, is designed to fly under the radar, and there is no UN resolution banning Pyongyang from testing.
Kim Jong-un fired his new short-range ballistic missile from a train carriage, a submarine, and even claimed that one of the most recent barrages starting in late September was fired from a lake. That could help prevent another confrontation with the U.S., as in 2017, when former President Donald Trump threatened “fire and fury” and officials used a “nosebleed” strike against the country as a pre-emptive strike. warn.
There are other difficulties in making warheads for ICBMs, said Chang Young-keun, a missile expert at Korea Aerospace University. Flying above Earth, the missile must withstand reentry forces at speeds in excess of 3,200 kilometers per hour.
Kim Jong-un has shown he has mastered tactical delivery systems by testing nearly 70 short-range missiles since 2019. The missiles deploy quickly, are designed to evade U.S. interceptors in the region, and are able to launch in less than five minutes.
[ad_2]
Source link