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According to technology research and advisory firm Gartner, total global device shipments (PCs, tablets and mobile phones) are expected to decline 4.4% to 1.7 billion units by 2023. In 2022, the equipment shipment market will decline by 11.9%.
“Sluggish economic markets will continue to dampen demand for devices throughout 2023. In fact, end-user spending on devices is expected to decline by 5.1% through 2023,” said Ranjit Atwal, senior director analyst at Gartner. “Just as business confidence began to recover after the worst of the pandemic, it has now declined significantly in most regions. We do not expect inflation to ease and the recession to bottom out until the fourth quarter of 2023. “
As the economic outlook is expected to be less pessimistic until 2023, the downward trend affecting the equipment market will weaken in 2023, ultimately increasing consumer and business spending.
PC inventory levels will return to normal in the second half of the year
PC shipments will continue to experience the worst declines of any device segment in 2023. PC shipments are expected to decline 6.8% in 2023, following a 16% decline in 2022.
The PC segment includes desktops, laptops, ultra mobile premiums, and Chromebooks. Tablets include all Android and iOS.
PC suppliers will reduce inventory levels through 2023, and Gartner analysts expect PC inventory levels to return to normal by the second half of 2023 after a sharp increase in 2022. Demand has dropped dramatically,” Atwal said.
While many business PCs could be upgraded to the Windows 10 operating system (OS) by 2022, many won’t. Gartner predicts that by the end of 2023, more than 25 percent of business PCs will be upgraded to Windows 11. However, Windows 11 sales are not enough to meet the 2020-2022 sales.
Additionally, Gartner estimates that PC and tablet replacement cycles for consumers and businesses will extend by more than nine months by the end of 2023, as high inflation and an impending recession reduce discretionary spending and budgets.
Mobile phone replacement cycle
Gartner predicts that global smartphone shipments will decline by 4% in 2023. Smartphone shipments are expected to be 1.23 billion units in 2023, down from 1.28 billion units in 2022.
“Consumers are staying on their phones for longer than expected, ranging from six to nine months, and moving from fixed to flexible contracts in the absence of meaningful new technology,” Atwal said. “Additionally, suppliers are passing inflationary component costs on to users, further depressing demand. End-user spending on handsets is expected to decline by 3.8% by 2023.” — trade arab news agency
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