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Ankara: Turkish Foreign Minister Mevrut Cavusoglu revealed that he met Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad on the sidelines of the Non-Aligned Movement summit last October, hinting at Ankara and Damascus 11 years after their relationship broke down Seek the possibility of political reconciliation.
Cavusoglu reportedly discussed with his counterparts in the Serbian capital Belgrade the need for a deal with the Syrian opposition and the Assad regime to achieve a lasting peace.
The Turkish foreign minister stressed that his country supports the territorial integrity of Syria because “the integrity of the borders, territorial integrity and peace of our neighbours directly affects us”.
Pro-government Turkish newspapers recently claimed that Assad and Erdogan could hold phone protection after Russian President Vladimir Putin raised the point during a recent meeting with Erdogan in Sochi. Cavusoglu, however, denied rumours of any talks between the Syrian and Turkish presidents.
Since the civil war began in 2011, Turkey has conducted four cross-border military operations in Syria to clear the borders of terrorist groups, and it also has a significant military presence through observation posts in the northern region of the country.
Since 2017, Turkey, Iran and Russia have come together through the Astana conference to try to get Syria’s warring sides to find a permanent solution to the war.
It is no secret that Turkish and Syrian intelligence services have been in communication.
However, the latest sign of a possible normalisation of bilateral relations as Turkey supports rebel groups opposed to the Assad regime has angered opposition groups, who have staged mass protests in several areas of northern Aleppo to show their opposition, fearing a relationship with The Assad regime resumes diplomatic engagement.
Turkey’s fight for peace with the Assad regime could also have an impact on the fate of the more than 3.7 million registered Syrian refugees in Turkey, who have become a domestic political issue due to the economic difficulties the country faces.
Before the outbreak of the civil war, Turkey and Syria had close high-level ties, often exemplified by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his family meeting Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip during their famous summer vacation in the Turkish Aegean resort of Bodrum . Erdogan in 2008.
“Given the persistence of the Assad regime, Ankara must have an ad hoc approach; in fact, it already exists at the level of intelligence agencies,” Rich Outzen, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and the Jamestown Foundation, told Arab News.
“However, the political risk of a quick or moderate reconciliation by President Erdogan is very high, so understanding may be incremental and limited,” Outzen said.
According to Outzen, a failed re-engagement would mean compromising the viability of Turkey’s protected safe zone, leading to a new wave of refugees, or sparking new massacres by Assad among those Ankara wants to protect and stay put.
“However, the lack of current practices is also unsustainable in the long run, as the Turkish military will inevitably increase pressure both internationally and within Turkey to have a path to withdrawal, even if that path is measured over many years,” he said. of.” .
For this reason, Outzen believes fears of rash or quick reconciliation or re-engagement are overblown.
“Of course Putin will press Erdogan to re-engage, but it seems to me that Erdogan will resist any measures other than the bare minimum to maintain his freedom of movement in Syria,” he said. . “Going too fast in the process could spark a Syrian backlash in northern Syria and ultimately a backlash in Turkey, as this week’s protests in the safe zone have shown.”
While Turkey’s final phase in Syria was Erdogan’s handshake with Assad, Ankara and Damascus are bringing northwest Syria to a standstill, according to Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkey Program at the Washington Institute.
“I don’t think the arrangement between Turkey and Syria will lead to a complete reset of borders and border affairs between the two countries, as many Syrians living in areas controlled by Turkish-backed forces have been effectively purged by Assad, in some cases Twice,” he told Arab News.
“If the two leaders shake hands or exchange territory, there is zero chance of them staying in Syria controlled by the Assad regime,” he said.
Kagaputi believes that Turkey will recognize Assad’s sovereignty over the area, but will continue to temporarily provide security and policing in some territories in northwestern Syria, while retaining millions of people that Assad does not want and has no interest in making Sunni Arabs. Become a full citizen again.
“Assad may even return to the border post with the Syrian Republic flag and may start to provide some social services,” he told Arab News.
For Kagapute, Turkey’s greatest benefit for Assad is to keep Syrian refugees under Turkish control within the country and northwest Syria, rather than forcing them to return to Syria.
“This is a huge benefit for Assad as he uses the Syrian war for racial engineering. Before the war, Sunni Arabs made up more than two-thirds of the Syrian population, but now less than half. In return, Assad could offer to re-annex the YPG, the Syrian Kurdish militia under his control. This is a good deal for Erdogan and Turkey,” he said.
Turkey sees the YPG as a threat to national security and is an extension of the PKK, which has waged a decades-long insurgency against the Turkish state.
Ankara analyst Aydin Sezer believes that the possibility of re-engagement with the Assad regime ahead of the election period scheduled for June 2023 will be used to domestic consumption.
“The enormous external pressure to achieve this reconciliation, the financial burden of hosting millions of Syrian refugees in Turkey and the rising cost of deploying military officers to Syrian observation posts also make this issue financially important to internal dynamics,” he said. He told Arab News.
Turkey has around 5,000 troops in areas it controls in Syria and around 8,000 around the rebel-held province of Idlib, whose maintenance costs Ankara billions of dollars and risks violating territory. Confront Assad and foreign powers.
“While reconciliation cannot happen overnight, it is important that the ruling government and opposition parties have started discussing it,” Cesaire said.
Erdogan recently hinted at a new move to Syria to create a 30-kilometer-deep security zone from the border to repel Kurdish militants, but after repeated warnings from regional powers, no military activity seems imminent .
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