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Beirut, Lebanon- Fifteen years after the month-long and devastating war between Hezbollah and Israel ended, analysts expect the two sides to continue their deterrence policy instead of another full-scale war.
But they said that although Hezbollah has unprecedented military and political power, Severe economic crisis The weaknesses of the group have also been exposed in Lebanon.
The Iran-backed war between Hezbollah and Israel, commonly referred to as the July War, began on July 12, 2006-a few days after the Hezbollah agent incident. Captured two Israeli soldiers In a cross-border raid, they hoped to reach a prisoner exchange agreement with their Israeli counterparts.
Israel responded militarily to retrieve the two soldiers and intends to destroy Hezbollah, the only faction that kept its arsenal during the Lebanese civil war.
In the devastating conflict that ended on August 14, 2006, Israeli air strikes, artillery fire, and naval attacks killed at least 1,109 Lebanese, most of whom were civilians, more than 4,000 were injured, and approximately 1 million were displaced. Approximately 250 Hezbollah fighters were killed in the war. The rocket attack by Hezbollah killed 43 Israeli civilians and 12 soldiers.
The Israeli army stated that they only bombed the Lebanese national infrastructure that “has a significant contribution to Hezbollah’s operational capabilities”; especially the runways, bridges and roads of the country’s only international airport, power plants, water supply networks, a lighthouse in Beirut, and Allah Al-Manar TV studio for the party.
The Lebanese government estimated the cost of the loss at 2.8 billion U.S. dollars.
Israel also fired about 4 million cluster munitions, mainly when the ceasefire was imminent in the last three days of the war, but not all of them were detonated. According to Human Rights Watch, as many as 1 million unexploded cluster munitions were scattered in fields, towns and villages.These hidden ammunition Still injured or dead Residents to this day.
But an investigation by the Israeli government concluded that the 2006 war was a failed “missed opportunity”.
“Israel launched a long war, but it ended without a clear military victory,” it wrote.
At the same time, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah stated in a recent speech that the 2006 war was a key victory for the organization and Lebanon’s security.
“This is Lebanon’s historic and strategic achievement in the July War: the security of the past 15 years,” Nasrallah said in a televised speech last week, adding that Hezbollah’s military strength has become an issue against Israel. Deterrence of the army. Invasion.
Since the war, Hezbollah has expanded its arsenal and has become an important paramilitary organization in the region, especially in Syria, where it supports President Bashar al-Assad on the battlefield.
“Its caliber [Hezbollah’s] Weapons and rockets… and the precision missiles it has,” Nasrallah said in his speech.
Hezbollah’s rocket and missile arsenal has increased from approximately 15,000 in 2006 to approximately 130,000 in 2018.
Since its expansion into regional military activities, its number has grown substantially and its military tactics and arsenal have been diversified, most notably through cooperation with the Russian and Syrian armies.
However, according to data from the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, it has lost more than 1,700 fighters in Syria in the past 10 years.
In recent years, Israel has launched air strikes against Hezbollah and Iranian convoys in Syria.
However, although the tension between Hezbollah and Israel has erupted intermittently on the southern border of Lebanon over the past 15 years, the situation in Lebanon has remained basically calm, although tensions continue to surface.
Hezbollah’s “Mentality Change”
Randa Slim, a senior researcher at the Middle East Institute in Washington, D.C., said that the 2006 war led to a “conceptual change” in Hezbollah.
“Their military victory [emboldened them] Stand up against Israel and become the decision maker of war and peace in Lebanon,” Slim told Al Jazeera, adding that the 2006 war was the first time Hezbollah mobilized without the approval of the Lebanese government.
Slim said that Hezbollah continued to maintain a more independent mentality after the war. The most obvious one was that Hezbollah unilaterally decided to intervene in 2012 to support the Syrian government.
“If it didn’t happen in 2006, I honestly don’t think they would make the decision to go to war in Syria. I think they would be very reluctant without them. [political endorsement]. “
“This is when Hezbollah is starting to no longer care about political cover. [believing] They have won their own right to make these decisions, no matter what the government wants or says,” Slim said.
At the same time, in the past 15 years, Hezbollah has also become an important political participant in Lebanon, especially after its alliance with the Christian Party Freedom Patriotic Movement, its leader, General Michel Aoun, became the country in 2016. President.
Over time, their speech still revolves around the claim that they are a resistance organization, but their anti-establishment speech has weakened.
However, earlier this month, tensions between Hezbollah and Israel escalated as Israel launched an airstrike on southern Lebanon in response to three rockets fired at them. No group claimed responsibility for this.
Hezbollah subsequently fired dozens of rockets near a military installation, prompting Fear of total war.
This is the first announcement of a rocket attack on Israel since the 2006 war, and it is also the first air strike by Israel on Lebanese territory since 2014. The United Nations Interim Force in southern Lebanon said in a statement.
However, Hezbollah said in a statement that they deliberately targeted an “open area” near a military installation in Israeli-controlled territory in response to air strikes.
The Israeli army responded with similar remarks, saying that it did not want to escalate.
Hezbollah leader Nasrallah later stated in a speech that Lebanon would respond to any further attacks by Israel, but said it would “in an appropriate and proportionate manner because we want to serve the purpose of protecting our country”.
Ibrahim Haravi, a professor of international relations at Royal Holloway College, University of London, believes that full-scale war will not be on the horizon, and Hezbollah has been more restrained than ever in responding to the latest tensions. In the past, he said this was “unprecedented.”
“Before they usually only said [they targeted] Occupy the names of Palestinian or Israeli settlements, but they will not publicly state that their goal is to open space,” Haravi told Al Jazeera.
Slim said Israel has no interest in upgrading in Lebanon.
“The main problem with Israel and Hezbollah is their precision-guided missiles, which they see as an existential threat,” she told Al Jazeera. “But it is still a controllable threat.”
But Lebanon’s shaky economy is another reason Israel rejects war — and they may use a strategy of secret attacks rather than full-scale war.
“Israel recognizes the economic pressure facing Hezbollah,” Slim said. “If there is a full-scale war, then Lebanon will have aid. They don’t want to save Hezbollah from this economic chaos.”
Haravi said that Lebanon’s economic crisis may be a factor in Hezbollah’s less inflammatory rhetoric.
“They rely on their military courage because of its daily economic and political realities [in Lebanon] Has become its weakest link. “
financial crisis
Since the end of 2019, Lebanon has continued to suffer from a devastating economic crisis. The United Nations recently stated that this crisis has plunged 78% of the population into poverty.
Hezbollah, with greater influence and political representation, was not immune to criticism and contempt, as part of the ruling party mosaic that caused the country to plummet.
Since then, the party has been increasingly accused of Lebanon’s economic and political paralysis, and has provided political cover for Lebanon’s other ruling parties.Nasrallah has Appeal against Ask the government to resign.
But unlike the party’s inflammatory rhetoric when it talks about Israel or its regional military operations in Syria, it has taken a different approach in addressing Lebanon’s growing dissatisfaction, as living conditions continue to deteriorate, including in its areas of political influence.
“One of Nasrallah’s [recent] The speech is 90 minutes, 30 minutes of which is to beg people to calm down [protests and riots]. Now compare it with its ability to maintain military audacity,” Haraway told Al Jazeera.
Haravi argued that this was done to “cover up the weaknesses accumulated in the domestic party”, and there is currently no solution to the soaring food prices, medicines and medicine prices. Fuel shortage, And rampant unemployment.
“I don’t think they are comfortable at all.”
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