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The withdrawal of American and NATO troops from Afghanistan inevitably left a political vacuum in South and Central Asia. The question many people are asking is who will step in to fill it. Afghanistan’s close neighbors—Pakistan, Iran, and China—have special interests in the country, and they may pursue these interests with renewed vigor.
No one can play the same important role as the United States in shaping the country’s future, but considering their own national security interests, all three want to see a stable government in Kabul and security institutions across the country.
As far as the Taliban is concerned, it is seeking to establish positive relations with its neighbors in order to win international legitimacy and attract investment for much-needed economic development. So what does this mean for relations with Pakistan, China and Iran?
Pakistan
Pakistan has a 2,670 kilometers (1,659 miles) border with Afghanistan and has suffered a lot during the turmoil of the past four years. After the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979, it had to pay a heavy price as a springboard for Washington and its allies against the Soviet Union’s “Afghan Jihad”. The 9/11 attacks and the subsequent “war on terrorism” only worsened the security situation in Pakistan.
This instability has allowed armed groups along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border to flourish. The Pakistani Taliban (Pakistan Taliban) and Baluchist rebels have been attacking targets in Pakistan for many years, killing more than 83,000 people and causing billions of dollars in damage to the Pakistani economy. Islamabad often claims that with the active support of Indian intelligence agencies, it has planned and executed violent attacks on Pakistan in Afghanistan. At the same time, Pakistani security agencies have been accused of supporting the Taliban in Afghanistan, especially the Haqqani network.
In this context, the Taliban’s takeover of Kabul and the withdrawal of US troops are viewed as positive developments by Islamabad’s policies and military circles. Their attitude has always been: “We are very happy, because with the Taliban in power, our western border will be protected, because the main competitor India will be excluded.”
The fact that the Taliban has never provided support to Pakistan for a US-led military operation (which deported it in 2001) or handed over some of its members to the Western military, which reinforced this optimism towards the friendly Kabul government. Some people even speculated that Islamabad might play an important role in Kabul, especially after the news of Pakistani intelligence chief Lieutenant General Faiz Hamid’s visit to the Afghan capital on September 4.
On the international stage, Islamabad has also been actively striving for international exchanges with the Taliban. In a video speech to the United Nations General Assembly broadcast on September 24, Prime Minister Imran Khan urged the international community to support the Taliban government and provide much-needed humanitarian assistance to the country.
However, as some have speculated, Pakistan may not enjoy unparalleled authority over the Taliban. People familiar with the matter told the author that at the National Security Council meeting held in Islamabad on August 16, the military commander clarified to parliamentarians that the Taliban might not listen to Pakistan’s views as they did in the past. This is why Islamabad is also very cautious and will not flee alone to quickly recognize the Taliban government as it did in the 1990s.
Although it has not formally recognized the Kabul government, Pakistan has high hopes for its economic contacts. During the tenure of former President Ashraf Ghani, as Kabul began to favor Iranian ports funded by India, the flow of imported goods into inland Afghanistan through Pakistani ports fell by 80%. Bilateral trade also dropped from US$2.8 billion in 2011 to US$1.8 billion. Islamabad hopes to see Pakistani ports resume using Afghan imports to promote bilateral trade.
Pakistan also hopes that the security guarantees under the Taliban will enable it to strengthen trade with Central Asia, where there is significant growth potential. It is watching the completion of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline, which will transport natural gas from Turkmenistan to three South Asian countries. In recent years, the construction of the pipeline has stalled due to the inability of the Afghan government to provide safety guarantees for projects on Afghan territory.
Looking to the future, only by establishing a relationship of mutual trust and respect with the Afghans can Pakistan establish a friendly government in Kabul.
China
The announcement of the US military’s withdrawal from Afghanistan in April increased China’s concerns about the border security of the Wakhan Corridor, which shares a 92-kilometer (57-mile) border with Afghanistan, but also encouraged the Chinese government to hold preliminary talks with Taliban leaders.
Beijing fears that chaotic Afghanistan may lead to the spread of violence to Xinjiang province and undermine its strategic regional investment in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The takeover of the Taliban has opened a strategic door for China to enter Afghanistan, and Afghanistan may be full of risks.
On July 28, a 9-member delegation of Mullah Baradar and the Taliban met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Tianjin. The Taliban pledged that they would not use Afghan territory to attack China in exchange for the Chinese economy. Support and invest in the reconstruction of war-torn countries.
This meeting was a turning point for the Taliban, because Mullah Baradar was able to win the support of a superpower that could play an important role in the reconstruction and development of Afghanistan. In the August 16 statement regarding the Taliban’s takeover of Kabul, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying stated that China is “prepared” to further develop relations with Afghanistan.
China has fulfilled its promise. Although other countries avoided talking about the Taliban government announced in early September, China responded to its appeal for humanitarian assistance and promised to provide US$31 million in aid. On September 23, Yi Gang criticized the United States for freezing Afghan assets at a virtual meeting of G20 foreign ministers. Less than a week later, the first batch of Chinese aid arrived at Kabul Airport.
China is also looking at profiting from Afghanistan’s undeveloped mineral resources, which are estimated to be worth between US$1 and US$3 trillion. In addition to rare earth elements, the country also has rich reserves of gold, platinum, silver, copper, iron, chromite, lithium, uranium, aluminum and gems. The Taliban seem willing to provide access to these resources and use these revenues to consolidate their rule.
However, the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan also worries China. If the Taliban government cannot control the East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) or other violent groups on the territory of Afghanistan, this may destabilize Xinjiang Province. In addition, unstable Afghanistan may breed other militant organizations that may undermine or undermine China’s “Belt and Road” initiative in the region. The country’s insecurity will also prevent the launch of any mining or other economic projects in China.
Other regional and global players are also paying attention to Afghanistan’s resources, and they may eventually use local militant groups or warlords to ensure their own interests. This may harm China’s economic interests in Afghanistan and the region.
Therefore, Beijing may be cautious about its relationship with the Taliban government and spend time investing in the country.
Iran
Iran has a border of 921 kilometers (572 miles) with Afghanistan, and its neighbors have also suffered turbulence for decades. In the 1990s, Tehran supported the Northern Anti-Taliban Alliance and did not recognize the Taliban’s rule in Kabul.
Fearing that the United States will have a large military presence in the region after 2001, Iran has established ties with the organization and tried to undermine US interests by supporting it in secret.
Generally speaking, the Iranians are happy with the U.S. withdrawal. Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi called this a military “failure” in a statement on August 16. But since then, his government has also been worried about the country’s security and political development. In early September, it reacted strongly to the Taliban’s offensive against opposition strongholds in the Panjshir Valley.
Tehran also criticized the Taliban for not including minorities in its declared cabinet. One of its main concerns in Afghanistan is to protect the Hazara Shia community, which faced severe persecution during the last Taliban rule.
In addition to political interests, Iran is also looking to Afghanistan for economic opportunities. US sanctions have severely damaged Iran’s global trade, but Afghanistan under the leadership of the Taliban will not avoid economic contacts with it in order to please the United States.
Iran will work hard to maintain its access to the Afghan market, which has been flooded with Iranian goods in recent years. In 2018, Iran became Afghanistan’s largest trading partner, with exports reaching nearly 2 billion U.S. dollars. In addition, a large number of Afghan imports passed through Iranian ports.
While maintaining high trade volumes, Iran will also seek to prevent the flow of drugs through its leaky border with Afghanistan. Iran is the main market for opium in Afghanistan and an important channel for narcotics to Europe and the Persian Gulf. The Taliban have been repeatedly accused of benefiting from the drug trade and encouraging it. Therefore, establishing an effective mechanism with the Taliban government to solve the drug problem will be a major challenge facing Iran.
Another controversial issue between Kabul and Tehran is that militants threaten Iran’s security. In recent years, there have been many terrorist attacks in Iran’s Khorasan and Sistan-Baluchistan border areas. These attacks are blamed on extremist organizations operating on the Afghanistan-Iran and Pakistan-Iran borders. The Taliban have promised that they will not allow armed groups on the territory of Afghanistan to threaten other countries, but Iran expects more than words.
More than 2 million Afghan refugees on Iranian territory also worry Tehran. As the country’s economy is in dire straits and the socio-economic tensions within Iran’s society have intensified, the Iranian government is almost unable to provide them with services or welcome more new immigrants. This is why Iran wants to see stability in Afghanistan and allow some of the refugees to return.
Therefore, it is in the vested interest of Afghanistan’s neighbors-Pakistan, China and Iran-to establish a stable government in Kabul that can guarantee the security of Afghanistan’s borders and economic activities. They may cooperate with each other, as well as with Russia, to achieve this goal. In this way, the Taliban government will be affected by an emerging anti-American axis that will seek to eliminate American influence in the region and determine its new security infrastructure.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.
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