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The parliamentary and presidential elections scheduled to be held at the end of the year give the long-suffering Libyan people reason to hope for their country’s future. However, their optimism has been affected by the ongoing struggle to achieve transitional justice, concerns about possible electoral violence, and many other challenges faced by the newly formed interim government in North African countries.
In fact, without concerted international and domestic efforts to prevent electoral violence, achieve transitional justice, and consolidate the legitimacy of the new government, Libya can easily fall back into conflict.
In March 2021, Libya established a new interim administrative agency. The Government of National Unity (GNU), elected through a United Nations-supported process, replaced the Government of National Unity (GNA) in Tripoli and the Parallel Eastern Cabinet, which was located in Cyrenaica but not recognized by the international community.
Although GNU was only established a few months ago, it is currently trying to unify this war-torn country and lead it to the election process for a long time. In fact, most of these challenges stem from the historical differences between the three regions of Libya.
GNU’s efforts to unify Libya’s long-divided government agencies are mainly hindered by the huge trust deficit among the major players. Since this issue is more political than technical, the reunification process needs to be maintained through more intense political dialogue. Some key stakeholders in Libya expect the process to be an automatic and direct merger of decentralized administrations and teams.
However, unification requires a thorough assessment of the needs of each of Libya’s three regions and their existing functions and structures. Only after such an assessment can national ministries be reorganized in a sustainable manner acceptable to all regions and prevent all decision-making power from being concentrated in Tripoli.
GNU’s efforts to hold free, fair and legal elections before the end of the year also face many obstacles. Many of these obstacles are technical-the authorities are working hard to register voters, ensure the safety of polling stations, and most importantly, agree on a legal framework for elections.
However, although these technical issues have undoubtedly caused a lot of anxiety, the main challenge in the election process is still mainly political: election security.
The numerous local and foreign security agencies operating throughout Libya and the lack of a central system to monitor elections have led many to question whether Libya can hold peaceful and truly inclusive elections that can produce legitimate results.
Even if GNU resolves these issues in time and holds elections deemed legitimate by the majority of the Libyan people and the international community, it may not be able to prevent a new post-election situation that may hinder peace. The government may undermine its legitimacy. In fact, current officials may try to maintain their position against the wishes of the people after the election, or foreign troops may take action to sabotage the election results in order to promote the interests of their own government.
Unresolved transitional justice issues may also hinder the prospects for sustainable peace and stability in Libya.
For example, by the end of 2020, there are 278,177 internally displaced persons who need to register as voters in the area where they currently live, which has proven to be a challenge. In addition, there are thousands of people who consider themselves Libyans without proper documents to prove their citizenship, register as voters or obtain services. If these issues are not resolved, all Libyans have the opportunity to exercise their most basic rights, the legitimacy of the elections will always be questioned, and stability will become out of reach.
The inability to bring justice to those who suffered violence and abuse in the country’s revolution and the ensuing multilateral civil war is another major problem facing Libya. The government needs to establish an accountability mechanism to protect the victims’ rights to justice and effective remedies (including compensation) to unify the country and prevent new violent incidents in the future. It also needs to resolve long-standing land disputes, bring justice to the victims of the Gaddafi regime, and take measures to prevent regional and ethnic marginalization, and bring stability and security to Libya.
Despite these daunting challenges, the prospects for sustainable peace in Libya are still stronger today than ever before.
If all local political actors encourage their supporters to vote in the upcoming elections, allow them to accept the election results, and promise to participate in representative governance after the elections, they will be able to put the country directly on the path of peace and stability. Listening to the voices and concerns of women and youth who can play a key role in the country’s stability and development will also help put Libya on track.
But local actors alone cannot achieve the bright and prosperous future that Libyans aspire to-the international community also needs to play a role.
The global powers need to provide GNU with the support needed to hold free and fair elections. In addition, the United States and its European allies must create the necessary conditions for countries that currently have military forces in Libya, so that they can see that the retreat is in their interests. If the United States and its allies cannot do this, they should begin to directly pressure these countries to withdraw their troops from Libya.
Without strong legal leadership and meaningful international support, people may lose trust in the emerging political system and turn to violence again. The resulting chaos can give foreign forces a new reason to keep their troops in Libya and continue to intervene in the country’s internal affairs. All of these can lead to a new surge of violence and cause continued instability.
Today, Libyans are optimistic about the future, but they know from the experience of the past ten years that without constructive action, promises, promises and goodwill are meaningless.
With international support, GNU can stabilize the country and enable the country to embark on a path of real reconciliation. It can help create a country where all citizens are free from violence, marginalization and discrimination. Holding free and fair elections is undoubtedly an important step in achieving this goal. But it is also important to build a national consensus that violence is not the answer to Libya’s problems. If GNU can persuade most Libyans to condemn violence permanently, the country can finally conclude a new social contract, set aside the past and begin reconstruction. This is good news not only for Libya, but also for the entire region.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.
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