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College football, you should be in luck when your postseason expands to 12 teams in 2024.
But we all know that the upsets, chaos and bracket breakers that fill March Madness every year are unlikely to happen once the NFL playoffs triple in size from the current four-team playoffs.
College football is one of the most predictable sports in the entire sport. Sure, there have been some upsets, and Appalachia has been shocking occasionally, but that’s mostly the usual suspects in the playoffs.
Gene’s first 3 columns
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more:Gene Frenette: Repeat after me — Kansas will make another NCAA cut
In the four-team CFP’s nine years, 25 of the 36 spots have been filled by five schools — Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Oklahoma and Georgia. The Southeastern Conference has won six of the past eight national championships, including four in a row.
The reality is college football is obsolete. That’s because no matter how loud the coaches may be, equality is next to nonexistent.
March Madness is different. There was always room for Cinderella, a double-digit seed to make a name for herself, a nobody who no one expected to steal the national spotlight.
College basketball, thanks in part to the sheer number of 363 Division I teams, is almost as likely to feature fresh blood as blue blood on the big stage.
This year, it just so happened that it was the Florida Atlantic’s turn to disappoint at the Sweet 16 party, winning their first NCAA game against Memphis. The Owls then had to survive the most unlikely second-rounder, No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson, who won the first four games before beating top-seeded Purdue, This is only the second time in tournament history that this has happened.
Princeton is the No. 15 seed and is in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1967. The Tigers outscored second-seeded Arizona 9-0 in the final 4:45 and then outscored Missouri 78-63 almost the entire game.
College football has no place for Cinderella
That kind of thing just doesn’t happen in college football. Despite Northwestern’s three 10-win seasons under Pat Fitzgerald over the past decade, the program isn’t going to pop up out of thin air and threaten to earn or reach CFP.
When you look at a dozen or so CFP participants at any point in this decade, it’s unlikely that the Power 5 program’s name will show up at Vanderbilt, Cal, Boston College, Virginia, Iowa, Rutgers, or Indiana state. There could be a dozen or more others on that list before the season begins.
But in March Madness, there are always teams with little or no history of making noise in the NCAA tournament.
George Mason, VCU and the ultimate giant-killer, Butler, have all reached the Final Four by dancing in five years. Butler, who played in two straight NCAA championship games, missed a 3-pointer at the buzzer in 2010 against Duke.
Last year, St. Peter’s stole the show by breaking into the Elite Eight. In 2018, the headlines were Loyola-Chicago and sisters Delores Jean, a centenarian supporter, adoring basketball fans all the way to the Final Four.
That’s the beauty of college basketball’s greatest display. It’s a more inclusive sporting event, giving the little ones reasonable hope that there’s always room for a David or two in Goliath.
Except for Duke under the legendary Mike Krzyzewski, you don’t see the same show over and over again in the Final Four. The CFP has become such that you can have at least two of the four participants each year before the season starts.
Dreamers Can Succeed in March Madness
In the NCAA tournament, there are pitfalls lurking everywhere. Kansas just became the sixth consecutive defending champion not to make it to the Sweet 16 for the second year. The remaining seven teams — Creighton, San Diego State, Xavier, Princeton, FAU, Miami and Alabama — never made it to the Final Four.
Kentucky’s John Calipari and Virginia’s Tony Bennett both won national championships, but you’d never know the way their teams have been swiftly escorted to the exit of the tournament over the past two games.
Virginia was eliminated in the first round by a pair of No. 13 seeds Furman and Ohio, while Kentucky was eliminated last year by No. 15 seed St. Pete and lost to Kansas State in the second round. Additionally, Calipari and Bennett had missed a combined three big balls before then.
So what are the chances that college football’s preeminent coaches, Georgia State’s Kirby Smart and Alabama’s Nick Saban, will experience this stunning decline in their football programs? Probably about the same as Jimbo Fisher being guest of honor at a Tuscaloosa banquet.
College football doesn’t have enough depth to create that kind of turmoil. Once a school becomes an established force, it tends to linger for a while. Occasionally TCU, Cincinnati or Michigan State come up, but usually return to memorable bowl appearances the following year.
Once the 12-team playoffs begin in two years, would anyone want to bet on Georgia or “Bama won’t make it”? If one of the parties gets a top 4 seed, you’re also less likely to see them get knocked out by a 10, 11 or 12 seed the following week, providing a double digit seed or even winning a game to get that far.
What makes the college basketball playoffs more entertaining than college football is that it’s not the exclusive domain of elite Power 5 programs. This year’s Sweet 16 featured 11 different conference delegates.
The proud ACC needs Miami to beat Indiana to avoid being excluded from the Sweet 16. Ditto for the Big 10, Michigan and eight-time Final Four coach Tom Izzo saved the league from a similar fate by beating Marquette.
Honestly, no one expects San Diego State (Mountain West), Princeton (Ivy League) or FAU (Conference of America) to cut the nets, but that possibility can’t be completely ruled out.
Not when Butler nearly won it all. Who was Gonzaga before reaching the Elite Eight in 1999, when current head coach Mark Fey was an assistant under Dan Monson.
March Madness remains the greatest showcase in college sports because little guys can dream and achieve.
College football will never allow that to happen.
Gfrenette@jacksonville.com: (904) 359-4540
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