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After a costly, exhaustive, and highly negative U.S. midterm election, nothing is completely certain yet, most importantly which party will control Congress or whether the majority of power will be split between the House and Senate distribute.
But some things are obvious. Republicans have not achieved the “wave” election that many predicted. Democrats won major statewide races and ousted a Senate seat in Pennsylvania. Abortion remains a dynamic issue.
Control of Congress is at stake, depending on the outcome of three Senate races and about a dozen House races.
Here are some highlights from this year’s election:
Republicans are hoping for a crushing defeat. They don’t get it. The sweeping victory many Republicans had predicted had yet to materialize Wednesday after Democrats had several hard wins in swing districts such as Rep. Abigail Spanberger’s Virginia seat. .
Meanwhile, the fate of Democrats’ narrow control of the Senate is unclear.
Democrat John Fetterman defeated Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz for a key Pennsylvania Senate seat vacated by retiring Republican Senator Pat Toomey. Democratic Senator Rafael Warnock and former NFL star and Republican Herschel Walker will travel to Georgia for a runoff in December.
The outcome of the remaining two seats will determine which party wins the Senate majority — Arizona and Nevada — which may not be known for a few days, as the two states vote in part by mail-in ballots. It takes a long time to count.
It’s called history for a reason. The party celebrating winning the White House usually mourns the loss in the middle of two years later.
Add to this a historical pattern of economies battered by inflation and teetering in recessions, raising fears of crime, and the outcome is all but certain.
Since 1906, only the party of the ruling president in three midterm elections has won a House seat: in 1934, when the country was battling a depression; in 1998, when the United States was buoyed by a soaring economy; and in 2002, when 9 President George W. Bush enjoyed a high level of approval in a sense of national unity following the March 11 attacks.
– McCarthy’s Migraine
House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy predicted last year that his party would gain 60 seats. But with Republicans closing the House on Wednesday, the reality is that he will be forced to govern with a much narrower majority. This will be reinforced by a series of far-right candidates who pride themselves on their inability to govern.
That presents an unusual set of challenges as Mr McCarthy looks to back his widely anticipated race for House speaker.
The “Make America Great Again” or MAGA movement, launched by former President Donald Trump, appears to have tightened its grip on Republicans. Nearly two-thirds of Republican voters say they support the MAGA movement, according to the Associated Press VoteCast, suggesting that President Joe Biden’s White House could be deadlocked if Republicans win a majority in the House or Senate.
Conservative agitators such as Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Green have already suggested they have the upper hand.
“I’m running for Congress not only to beat the Democrats, but to hold my party accountable,” Ms Green said earlier Wednesday, shortly after Mr McCarthy predicted a Republican victory. “I know exactly how these voters feel when they vote, tired of empty promises and watching the Washington Swamp sell out our country’s future year after year.”
How Mr. McCarthy navigated the culture-war urges of the restless group and the party’s broader goal of serving voters afflicted by inflation and economic worries is a stress test for Republicans. This will all play out in the context of a presidential campaign that Mr. Trump is eager to run.
– Democratic campaign chief ousted
The Democrats’ unexpected good fortune did not extend to Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney of New York, the chairman of the Democratic House campaign.
Mr. Maloney was defeated by Republican Mike Laura in the race for the Hudson Valley seat, making him the first House Democratic campaign leader to be defeated since California Rep. James Coleman in 1980.
Often, parties elect a campaign chairman who is familiar with the struggles of front members, but insulated enough that they themselves are not threatened.
Mr Maloney’s failure was partly of his own making.
Democrats, including Mr. Maloney, have urged the New York legislature to draw a favorable Congressional map for the party during this year’s reelection campaign. But the new map, which was quickly challenged by a Republican judge and drawn down by himself, was far less favorable.
That led Mr Maloney to give up his old seat in favor of a more Democratic-leaning district held by first-term Democratic representative Mondaire Jones, who dropped out of the race.
That alienated progressives in the party who backed Mr Jones, while also forcing Mr Maloney to largely compete on new turf. It also gives Republicans a chance.
– From uprising to Congress
Republicans nominated three congressional candidates this year who were at or near the Capitol during the Jan. 6 uprising. Only one of them, Derrick Van Orden of Wisconsin, won.
Mr. Van Alden, a former Navy SEAL who was photographed at the Capitol and denies being in the restricted area or participating in the attack, defeated Democratic state Sen. Brad Pfaff in Tuesday’s election to take Wisconsin’s congress. Seats ceded to Republicans.
In January, Mr van Alden will join the same agency, whose presence has helped undermine its obligations and responsibilities.
While his case may be an outlier, he is one of at least 30 Republican candidates elected to statewide and federal offices during the midterms who have denied Biden, according to an analysis by The New York Times Victory in 2020. Those expressing concern about how the election will play out also won.
Two other candidates in the Capitol were handily defeated. Sandy Smith of North Carolina lost her bid for the Democratic-leaning seat by about 5 percentage points.
JR Majewksi defeated Democratic Representative Marcy Kaptur by 13 points in a Trump-leaning district.
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