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After a string of victories by progressives and centrists over the past year, the number of populist leaders globally has fallen to a 20-year low, according to analysis by the Tony Blair Institute The number fell by 800,000 over two years.
2023 could also be decisive for populism, with key elections in Turkey and Poland, the study said. In both elections, two of the most powerful populist governments in the world are likely to fall, although that may also require the countries’ divided opposition parties to form a more explicit coalition plan than they have done so far.
Among populists out of power, Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro Slovenia’s Janez Jansa lost a relatively close election in 2022, while the Philippines’ Rodrigo Duterte is limited to one term and unable to run for re-election. In Sri Lanka, Gotabaya Rajapaksa was ousted in protests.
By early 2023, 1.7 billion people will live under populist leaders, up from 2.5 billion in 2020, the report said. Populism on both the left and the right is defined by two propositions – that the “real people” of a country are locked into moral conflict with “outsiders,” and secondly, that nothing should limit the “real people,” the report said. will.
Much of Latin America’s populism has already happened, the report says, notably with the defeat of Brazil’s Poulsen Rowe, but also with the election of a generation of moderate leftists in Latin America, which “denied the populist rhetoric , and focused on progressive economic and social rights, rather than the historical concern of the populist left with the nationalization of industry”.
The report also noted that in the U.S. midterm elections, most candidates received donald trump People who espouse right-wing nationalism and conspiracy theories were not elected and underperformed.
“After defeating several moderate Republicans in swing state primaries, the Trump candidate lost most of his race in November, with the GOP losing control of the Senate and several governorships. Most notably , they have lost every state-level election involving election administration in swing states,” the report said.
“While Congress blocked Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election, American voters blocked his followers’ efforts to manage future elections in 2022.” does not herald a long-term failure of American cultural populism.
The report broadly defines populism into three categories: cultural populism, which has right-wing ethno-nationalist appeal; socioeconomic populism, which appeals to those on the left; and anti-establishment populism, which focuses on targeting elites.
It said cultural populism remained significant in U.S. politics despite the failure of Trump-backed candidates and doubts about the former president’s prospects in 2024, pointing to Ron DeSantis Could be another major contender. “Even if Trump loses, cultural populism is likely to remain strong within the Republican Party,” it said.
The report, “Resist and Rebuild: Expanding the Anti-Populist Playbook,” said the rest of the world’s examples of populist governments (seven of 11) consisted almost entirely of right-wing cultural populists rather than economic populists or anti-establishment populists.
But cultural populist governments have struggled to form effective governments, especially in the face of economic challenges or complex issues such as Covid, the report said, noting that four governments in Brazil, the Philippines, Slovenia and Sri Lanka would step down in 2022.
The report, however, warns strongly against premature claims of populism’s defeat, pointing out that in 2022 populists were part of election-winning coalitions in Italy, Israel and Sweden. Marine Le Pen was dismissed by French President Emmanuel Macron Defeated, but her party did well in legislative elections.
In Britain, the Conservatives are likely to face a challenge from the populist right-wing Reform Party, which has vowed to pit candidates against all parties rather than continue UKIP’s 2019 deal not to oppose Boris Johnson’s Conservatives .
While Richard Theis’ party is unlikely to win a seat at the next election, it has a turnout of about 8%, most of which will come from disgruntled Conservative voters. It could have been more successful if Nigel Farage, who led the UKIP and Brexit parties to wider attention, got more involved.
The institute argues that anti-populist mainstream parties may have to realize that when they govern, they need a different anti-populist playbook than mainstream parties use when they are populist in power.
It says mainstream parties should have a clear and substantive policy agenda of their own, rather than focusing on negative campaigning against populist challengers who invariably argue that their core issues are not being addressed by mainstream politics. solve. Mainstream parties must realize that voters are growing weary of rhetoric that ignores the problems facing the country, the report said.
The report’s author, Brett Meyer, said it showed a trend towards progressive centrism in many countries. “The centrists continue to push the boundaries of populism in 2022, with the number of populists in power at a 20-year low,” he said.
“This is due in no small part to the progressive centrist’s success against populism across the country. America With progressive centre-left leaders replacing the old populist left. Populism has also suffered a major blow in the US midterm elections. “
But this year’s populist fortunes could turn to elections in Poland and Turkey, where Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s government is in grave jeopardy. “By the end of 2022, Turkey has the most negative interest rates in the world on an inflation-adjusted basis, and the lira is the worst emerging market performer relative to the dollar,” the report said, warning that Turkey’s president is open to talks of provocative negotiations with Greece or the Kurds. People clash to galvanize nationalist support.
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