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On the surface, everyone in the OPEC+ family is united. Listening to ministers ahead of Sunday’s meeting, everyone is making the right noise. Don’t be surprised if the cartel doubles down on production cuts, at least on paper, in an attempt to buoy depressed oil prices.
Behind closed doors, however, things didn’t go so smoothly.
although Russia, Iran and Venezuela are pumping more oil Despite Western sanctions, the country to watch through 2024 is the United Arab Emirates, the fourth-largest oil producer in the OPEC+ alliance.
For years, the UAE has been fighting, without success, for a higher quota to match its growing production capacity. The UAE push erupted in July 2021, when Riyadh and Abu Dhabi clashed at the OPEC+ meeting, forcing the group to adjourn. The meeting did not resume until days later when the UAE backed away from its demands under Saudi pressure.
Nearly two years later, the market has largely forgotten about that episode. But the dispute has not gone away, and it is likely to come into focus in the coming months as OPEC+ begins to formulate its production policy for 2024. The difference from 2021 is that Riyadh seems ready to turn to its neighbors for help.
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