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After two years of pandemic improvisation and in-store restrictions, this year’s Black Friday felt like a return to normalcy.
Shoppers who ventured out on Friday, and even those who didn’t, saw a ton of deals they’d missed in years past. Many retailers are driving down prices in stores and online in response to Americans’ recent indication that they prefer to wait for discounts before buying.
Shoppers line the door of El Remate Discount on Black Friday, November 25, 2022, in El Paso, Texas, as they wait for the store to open. (Justin Hamel/The New York Times)
“I think we’re going to get back to where we were before the pandemic with what we had on Black Friday,” said Stephen Lebovitz, chief executive of CBL Properties, which owns about 95 U.S. properties, including shopping malls. Center and mall status. “There are some changes, but it feels more like Black Friday 2019 than anything in transition.”
still close to the record inflation Dwindling savings are keeping some shoppers at home and leaving retailers unsure of what the season will ultimately bring.
Many wealthy consumers are financially stable and appear willing to spend, but others face more economic uncertainty. This is not expected to change anytime soon. Analysts, economists and retail executives are monitoring a possible economic slowdown in the first months of 2023, which could heighten consumer wariness.
Shoppers at the Michael Kors Outlet at Great Lakes Crossing mall on Black Friday, Nov. 25, 2022, in Auburn Hills, Mich. (Nic Antaya/The New York Times)
That makes the holiday season — always the most important time for retailers — even more important this year.
The day starts at Macy’s Herald Square, Macy’s flagship store in New York, with a steady stream of customers and clerks applauding as they enter the store. Some said they were happy to shop but worried about the price.
Tammy Freeman, 59, from New York, was at the front of the line near the store’s main entrance, preparing for her annual Black Friday excursion. She said she was eager to buy a variety of things, including a case for her daughter’s laptop, but noted that inflation was changing her overall spending patterns.
Shoppers walk past a department store advertising Black Friday deals on Regent Street in Oxford Circus, London, November 25, 2022. American-style Black Friday sales have become common in Europe, as buyers are likely to be more cautious this year as the holiday shopping season moves forward but with less disposable income. (Mary Turner/The New York Times)
“I have to increase the budget,” she said. “I have to catch up on sales more.”
According to a Bankrate survey, 80% of holiday shoppers are likely to shop between Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Those who shopped online on Thanksgiving also pulled out their wallets, with sales up 2.9 percent from a year earlier, according to Adobe Analytics, which tracks online sales. Adobe estimates that online spending for the holiday season will increase 2.5% over last year. The company said it calculated online prices were down 0.7 percent in October from a year earlier, largely because of early holiday deals, although they were up 0.3 percent from September.
On Friday, bargain hunters appeared to have absolute power. Stores put up signs advertising discounts of 50% to 60%. At a Target in Springfield, Illinois, shoppers walked around pushing 65-inch TVs in shopping carts, some wearing matching T-shirts that read “Gather, Gulp Shop.”
Shoppers enter a Best Buy store in Union City, Calif., on Black Friday, Nov. 25, 2022. (Alex Welsh/The New York Times)
In San Francisco’s Union Square, it’s relatively quiet. By 7 a.m., the lines outside Macy’s had cleared and it felt “more or less like a normal day,” said Clifford Cheng, a retail associate at the store.
At nearby Neiman Marcus, there were only about a dozen shoppers waiting outside before the store opened at 9 a.m. Natali Carrasco, 20, and Batechaa Steele, 20, were Black Friday shoppers at the luxury department store.
“We always come here to shop, but we always buy at full price, so we want to see sales,” Carrasco said.
Shoppers on Black Friday in San Francisco, Nov. 25, 2022. (Alex Welsh/The New York Times)
Even before the season started, some shoppers had cut back on discretionary purchases, leaving retailers with unusually high inventory levels. They want to unload as much as possible before the new year begins.
“The more items they sell now, the better,” said Kristen Gall, president of Rakuten, an online platform that offers cash-back deals. “Because if you’re found to be holding a lot of inventory in January and February, and consumers are returning it because it feels like the recession is clearly worsening, that’s what retailers are concerned about.”
While shoppers expressed unease about the economy, retailers said they were optimistic.
“Even in a very tough year, Black Friday is a very big day for us,” Macy’s CEO Jeff Gennett said in an interview.
And there are promising signs. According to a survey by consultancy KPMG, 40% of consumers said they planned to shop this holiday season, up from 35% in 2019 before the pandemic lockdown during Christmas. Last year, the number of shoppers who said they planned to venture inside the mall was 31%.
Shoppers walk past a department store advertising Black Friday deals in the Oxford Circus district of London, November 25, 2022. (Mary Turner/The New York Times)
Americans are also buying gifts online. Adobe said Black Friday online sales are expected to reach $9 billion, up 1% year-over-year.
Retailers take different approaches to attracting shoppers.Macy’s isn’t bringing back the big open-door deals — and those deals disappeared during the pandemic social isolation guidelines – instead offer sales throughout the day.It also continued the pandemic-era tradition of having Santa sit behind a table for photos with children, suggesting Coronavirus disease Concerns remain.
JC Penney is back with “Open Doors” for the first time since 2019, as it says it hopes to motivate discount-conscious shoppers to head to stores. For the 5 a.m. hypermarket, the department store chain deliberately kept “pre-inflation pricing” on key items like Instant Pots, bath towels and boots. Store signs tout a 65 percent discount.
“We think we’re going to have a lot of customers in our stores, and in order to attract them, we know that value is very important to consumers right now,” said Marc Rosen, JC Penney’s chief executive.
On its website, mall owner CBL highlights discounts at stores such as H&M and children’s clothing retailer Carter’s. Other retailers have employed similar tactics in the days leading up to Black Friday. J. Crew advertised 50% off shopping on Monday. On Gap’s website, a giant black banner scrolls across the top of the page that says “HPY BLK FRI” and highlights a 50 percent discount and an extra 10 percent off.
However, retailers run the risk of relying more on transactions. The practice has eroded the profit margins that have propped them up during the pandemic, when many Americans are spending so much on a variety of goods that retailers don’t feel the need to lure them with too many deals. There are also concerns that shoppers will become so used to sales that they will only buy if they promise a lower price.
“Consumers understand they can wait for discounts, and that, combined with retailers’ incentive to shift merchandise, could mean this Black Friday will be more important than Black Friday in a long time,” said Simeon Siegel, managing director at BMO Capital. . “Whether it’s good for the brand, whether it’s good for the consumer — that’s a separate topic.”
Retailers are also more competitive in entertainment options like concerts and dining out than in years past. Consumers are expected to allocate a greater percentage of their holiday spending to experiences this year than last year. Middle-income Americans earning $50,000 to $99,000 a year are expected to spend, on average, 15 percent more on experiences this year, according to a Deloitte survey released in October.
Of course, not every retailer takes Black Friday so seriously.
Outdoor equipment retailer REI has had the day off since 2015. This year, the company said it has decided to permanently give its employees paid time off on Black Friday to encourage them to spend time outdoors.
But that is an exception. While total Black Friday sales are still being tallied, many retailers are already looking to further entice shoppers by advertising more discounts on Monday.
“We believe consumers are very aware of the fact that there is plenty of inventory,” Urban Outfitters Chief Executive Richard Hayne said on a conference call with analysts this month. “What they are doing is waiting for what usually happens. Great deals on Black Friday and Cyber Monday to make purchases.”
Retailers may need to offer more deals, he said, but “I don’t think it’s going to be an outright carnage.”
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