Revealed: UAE plans massive oil and gas expansion as it hosts UN climate summit | COP28

this united arab emiratesThe UK’s Guardian newspaper, which is hosting this year’s UN climate summit, has revealed it has the world’s third-largest net-zero disruption plan for oil and gas expansion. Its plans are second only to Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

The controversial appointment of the chief executive of the UAE’s national oil company Adnoc as chairman of the United Nations’ Cop28 summit in December time is limited to end the climate crisis. But according to new figures, Sultan Al Jaber is overseeing an expansion to produce the equivalent of 7.5 billion barrels of oil and gas, 90 percent of which must remain in the ground to meet the net-zero scenario set by the International Energy Agency.

Adnoc is the world’s 11th largest oil and gas producer, delivering more than 1 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BBOE) in 2021. But new analysis shows the company has big short-term expansion plans, with plans to add 7.6 BBOE to its production mix over the next few years – the fifth largest increase in the world.

The figures were produced for the Guardian by the German NGO Urgewald, from its Gogel database. This is based on data from Rystad Energy, an industry standard source but not available to the public, accessed in September 2022.

November 2022, Adnoc Announces $150 Billion Investment Over five years to achieve an “accelerated growth strategy” for oil and gas production.Independent expert rates UAE’s climate goals and policies as ‘severely inadequate’ while The Secretary-General of the United Nations recently called “stop [of] All permits or funding for new oil and gas”.

Al Jaber’s recent announcements also appear to be difficult to reconcile with Adnoc’s sprawling plans for new oil and gas production.Speaking at the “Road to Cop28” conference in Dubai on March 15, Al Jaber said: “We [the world] Emissions must be reduced rapidly. ’ The next day, at an IEA roundtable, he said: “Oil and gas companies need to agree around net zero emissions. ” In February, Al Jaber said: “We in the UAE are not shying away from the energy transition. We are running towards it.”

Only 10% of Adnoc expansion is in line with the IEA’s scenario for the world to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.IEA says 2050 targets will require No new oil and gas projects Approval will be granted after 2021, but 90% of Adnoc’s planned oil and gas expansion is advanced after that date and must remain in the ground to be compatible.

As a result, Adnoc’s “overshoot” to the IEA net-zero scenario is 6.8 BBOE, the third largest globally. Saudi Aramco had the largest overshoot at 11.4 BBOE, followed by Qatar Energy with 7.6 BBOE.

The short-term expansion plan included in the analysis refers to the oil fields that are developing production and operation plans, have made final investment decisions, or have not started drilling. Fields in these categories typically start producing oil and gas within seven years. The Gogel database includes 901 companies exploring for and producing oil and gas, covering 97% of short-term expansion plans.

Some of the largest developments not in line with the IEA’s net-zero scenario will be undertaken as part of the Upper Zakum project off the coast of the UAE. Adnoc describes Upper Zakum Field Expansion As a “large project” and “the second largest offshore oil field in the world”.It involves “creating four artificial islands in shallow water [which] It can accommodate 450 wells, 90 platforms, as well as drilling rigs, processing facilities and infrastructure,” Adnoc said.

Independent experts from Climate Action Tracker conclude that UAE’s fossil fuel expansion plans are not compatible with limiting global heating to 1.5C and Ratings UAE’s climate goals and policies as ‘severely inadequate’. recent main report The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ratified by governments around the world, warns that Carbon emissions from existing fossil fuel projects around the world This alone would be enough to warm the climate by more than 1.5C.

Urgewald’s Nils Bartsch said: “New figures show that Sultan Al Jaber was appointed COP28 is a mockery of the Cop as an institution. The appointment of an oil and gas executive as chairman of the Cop shows that he is completely unaware of the problems at hand. This is a deadly political signal for the world. “

“The climate emergency calls for actions, not words,” said Tasneem Essop, Executive Director of the International Climate Action Network. “While Al Jaber has been calling for bold action to keep temperatures below 1.5C, his actions do not match his rhetoric. His conflicting role as CEO of Adnoc begs the question: will Al Jaber be able to deliver at Cop28? play an objective role in securing an ambitious outcome that suggests no new fossil fuel projects are possible?”

Essop and other activistsCall Al Jaber Resign from Adnocand some compare his presidency Cop28 is billed as “putting the head of a tobacco company in charge of negotiating an anti-smoking treaty”. Others at the U.N. climate talks have been less outspoken about the possible need to work with Al Jaber in the future.

“All countries and energy companies must heed the warnings of the IEA and IPCC, or decades of diplomacy and our Collective security on this planet could be compromised.

“The COP28 president has a huge responsibility to show how to bridge the gap between the Paris targets and today’s inadequate climate plans,” she said. “As a major oil exporter, this is an opportunity for the UAE to demonstrate its leadership in the post-fossil era.”

Christiana Figueres, the UN’s top climate official at the time of the Paris agreement, said: “We know the UAE is a hydrocarbon-based economy and we also know there is no room for new fossil fuels. It won’t be easy, but it’s important for every COP president to be science-oriented, and I hope the UAE will seize the opportunity to lead this time.”

A spokesperson for Adnoc said: “The world needs diverse solutions to accelerate the energy transition while ensuring sustainable economic development and meeting growing global energy demand. The world’s population is expected to grow to over 8.5 billion by 2030 , we are investing in capacity that will allow us to use some of the least carbon-intensive barrels to meet future demand.

“Adnoc will remain a responsible and reliable energy supplier focused on reducing the carbon intensity of every barrel of oil it produces and continue to contribute to global emissions reductions by expanding into new energy sources,” the spokesperson said. or the carbon intensity of natural gas is CO₂ Emissions per unit of fuel produced, excluding further emissions produced when the fuel is burned.

Al Jaber is also the UAE’s special envoy for climate change, but a request for comment was not responded to. He is also the founding CEO masdar, a government-owned renewable energy company. The company says it is one of the world’s largest developers of renewable energy projects and has invested more than $30bn (£24.2bn) in major solar and wind projects since 2006.

Al Jaber’s role as chairman of Cop28 and chief executive of Adnoc “is clearly a real conflict of interest”, said Alden Meyer of E3G, a think tank that has participated in UN climate talks since they began in 1991.”Perhaps Dr. Al Jaber is positioned to finally move the oil and gas industry forward,” Meyer said. [clean energy] transition. But I’m skeptical. “