Sandwiched between the United States and Iran, Iraqis face choices in the election election news

In the tense situation between the United States and Iran, a seemingly eternal battlefield, Iraq held elections at the peak of domestic dissatisfaction with its eastern neighbors and criticism of the existence of the United States, paving the way for an uncertain future for the United States- Iranian relations that have plagued Iraq for years.

The early election is Interim Prime Minister Mustafa Kadimi’s response to the large-scale protests in 2019. It will, to some extent, prove how Iraq views Iran and the United States, as well as the country’s two most important countries in general. relation. An important partner.

The United States and Iran have long used Iraq as an agent fighting for regional interests. Assassinations in January 2020 General Qassim Soleimani With Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, one is Iran’s supreme commander and the other is the vice president at the time People’s mobilization, Opened the prelude to a series of tit-for-tat sanctions and rocket confrontation escalation between the United States and Iran-all of which occurred on Iraqi soil.

Kadimi actively mediated, and the tension between the United States and Iran has since eased. Analysts said that there is still the possibility of an upgrade, which largely depends on how the two countries view each other and what position the next Baghdad government will take.

“The tension between Iran and the United States peaked in 2020 and eased thereafter, but Iraq may still fall back into conflict,” said Sajad Jiyad, an Iraqi political researcher at the Century Foundation.

Kurdsih Peshmerga soldiers waiting to vote in the city of Sulaymaniyah [Dana Taib Menmy/Al Jazeera]

Iraqis are often victims of Iran-U.S. tensions, and they are increasingly dissatisfied with the influence of these two countries on their country. When the protests broke out in October 2019, partly because the government was unable to provide basic services such as electricity, the protesters quickly turned their attention to structural social reforms, including calling on Iran and the United States to end their intervention in Iraq.

The demonstrators chanted “We want a country” and “No to the United States, not a country to Iran.”

Although the protests have subsided after the brutal suppression and relentless pandemic, the willingness of the protesters to reject foreign influence still exists.

However, Iraq’s bittersweet relationship with the United States and Iran means that it is almost impossible for Baghdad to balance its interests with Tehran and Washington.

With the parliamentary elections held on Sunday as scheduled, how to strike a balance while ensuring national security will inevitably become one of the most difficult issues that the new government must face.

Iran has played an active role in reiterating its influence on the election by supporting some tough groups allied with Iran, including the Fatah Alliance Electoral Group, which has an umbrella group of people’s mobilization power.

Recently, Hussein Muannis was publicly affiliated with Qataib HezbollahThe entry of one of the “terrorist” organizations designated by the United States in the parliamentary elections shows that Iran’s influence is expanding and open.

However, Iran’s control of elections is not a definite bet.

Among the Shiites, which make up the majority of Iraq’s population, these pro-Iranian groups Muktada SadrTalking about the influence of Iran and the United States may further complicate Iran’s role in Iraq.

However, analysts said that despite the Sadr movement’s opposition to Iran’s influence, Sadr is very clear that without Iran’s blessing and support, a coalition government cannot exist.

“Without an alliance, Sadrist will not be able to form his own government. Years of experience have taught them that cooperation with Iran is an inevitable part,” Giard said.

The new generation of opposition party voting observer Halsho Bahadin (Halsho Bahadin) supervises the voting in Sulaymaniyah [Dana Taib Menmy/Al Jazeera]

‘A tarnished reputation’

At the same time, the pro-Iranian militia planned a targeted assassination campaign, killing dozens of activists after street protests and alienating many Iraqis, even in Iraq, where Iran usually keeps its loyal base. The same is true in the south. Many protesters now see Iran as a threat to the country’s development.

“The reputation of groups allied with Iran has been tarnished because many Iraqis believe they are responsible for the violent actions of peaceful protesters, disapproving of them dragging Iraq into confrontation with the United States, and treating them as part of a corrupt system,” Sarhang Hamasaeed said. Director of the Middle East Program of the United States Institute of Peace.

However, analysts said that since the voter turnout rate may be low, it is not clear whether such dissatisfaction will be reflected in the election.

“Iraqis’ dissatisfaction with Iran should not be exaggerated,” Giyad said. “The election will not have a high turnout rate, which means that the elite will still get votes, and those with close ties to Iran will also get votes.”

The entangled relationship between Iraq and Iran means that the well-being of Iraq is closely related to the latter, otherwise Iraq may lose its food and electricity supply. Analysts said that this is not the case in the United States.

“The bilateral relationship between Iran and Iraq is of vital importance to both countries-it has a deep historical foundation, and despite the threats of boycotts, sanctions and war, this relationship will continue,” Giyad said.

The United States played a leading role in Iraqi politics until the then President Barack Obama withdrew most of the US military in 2011. Although the fight against the Islamic State (ISIS) armed group brought some troops back to the country, their presence in Iraq drew increasing criticism from Iraqis after the group was effectively defeated in 2017.

The Biden administration has announced that it will withdraw all combat troops from Iraq by the end of the year, although many analysts say that since the United States is only playing a supporting role in helping Iraqi troops fight, the withdrawal is just a rhetoric. Islamic State (Islamic State).

Some experts said that although Iran is hostile to the United States, its goal of completely expelling Americans is “a conflict of reality and rhetoric.” Continuing to quell domestic rebellions remains a priority for all sectarian groups.

Hamzehdad, an Iraqi political researcher, said: “You can’t get any army with less than 2,500 men-below that will be zero.” “The U.S. presence in Iraq has been reduced to a trickle.”

However, no matter what the outcome of the election is, the coalition government that may be formed in the future will not necessarily change the way the United States and Iran deal with each other-confrontation may still occur, and without strong governance, Iraq will once again be in trouble. Analysts say that the power of the region.

“The election will definitely affect what kind of government we will see in Baghdad and how they will deal with the two countries,” said Giard. “But how the tension between Iran and the United States develops depends largely on the two countries and how well they get along with each other.”

Ordinary Iraqis also have this sentiment. Baghdad resident Chovard said: “We need a strong government-as long as we have a government, the influence will be reduced.” “Although I am not sure whether we will have one.”