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Analysts say that the Taliban’s return to power two weeks ago caused a major diplomatic setback for India, and the South Asian giant is now one of the “most vulnerable” participants in the region.
Within a few weeks, the Taliban took over the country with an amazing military sweep, and the U.S.-led foreign army was about to withdraw after 20 years-ending the country’s longest overseas war.
President Ashraf Ghani, who has established a close relationship with New Delhi, Fled this country The Taliban surrounded the capital Kabul.
On August 15, the Kabul government supported by the West suddenly collapsed, leading to an unprecedented exodus of diplomats, foreign aid workers, and Afghans who worked for Western countries and feared retribution by the Taliban.
India is one of the countries that closed its mission in Afghanistan and brought back its staff and citizens.It’s still trying to evacuate some to stay Chaos at Kabul Airport.
After Kabul was occupied by the Taliban, India has evacuated more than 800 people from Afghanistan under Operation Devi Shakti.
On Thursday, it was only able to evacuate 24 citizens and 11 Nepalese nationals from a military plane because other people could not get to the airport to board the plane — instead of the more than 180 people it planned.
India’s investment in Afghanistan
New Delhi has invested US$3 billion in development projects, provided scholarships for Afghan students, and helped build a US$90 million parliament building, which has won a huge reputation in this country with a population of 38 million.
Last year, during the 2020 Afghanistan Conference, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar stated that India’s “more than 400 projects” in all 34 provinces of the country did not “affect” any part of Afghanistan.
On August 17, officials of the Indian mission in Afghanistan evacuated Indian civilians after landing in Jamnagar, India [Reuters]Over the years, bilateral trade between the two countries has also increased significantly, reaching US$1.5 billion in 2019-2020.
India sees the Taliban as an agent of its main rival, Pakistan, and maintains close ties with the Northern Alliance, which defeated the Afghan armed group in 2001 with the help of US-led NATO forces.
Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the Asia Program at the Wilson Center in the United States, said: “India has gone from Kabul’s closest regional partner to one of the most vulnerable participants in the region in the context of Afghanistan.”
Habimon Jacobs from Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi responded to a similar view, saying: “I think India seems to have withdrawn from the game in Afghanistan.”
He told Al Jazeera that India has played an active role in Afghanistan in the past 20 years, but at present India’s diplomacy almost “non-existent” in Afghanistan, and its stakes have “dropped sharply.”
“It’s too late to contact the Taliban”
Some foreign policy officials pointed out that it was too late for India to contact the Taliban to ensure its interests, as there were reports that Indian officials met with the Taliban in Doha, the capital of Qatar, in June. The Taliban established a political office in Doha in 2013.
Kugman said that there are two factors that are not good for New Delhi: “India’s reluctance to engage with the Taliban until it’s too late, and because of its relationship with the Taliban, the reconciliation process in Afghanistan is ill-fated and Pakistan’s footprint is deep.”
India spends US$90 million to help build the Afghan parliament building [File: Reuters]The Afghan reconciliation process is the result of an agreement signed between the Taliban and the United States in February 2020.
“One robs India of its potential influence, and the other puts New Delhi at a geopolitical disadvantage,” Kugelman told Al Jazeera.
India has always been wary of the Taliban because it is close to Pakistan’s military espionage agency Inter-Services Intelligence Service (ISI), while Islamabad is defendant New Delhi uses Afghan land to “carry out terrorist activities.”
“The Taliban’s acquisition has dealt a heavy blow to India’s strategic interests,” Kugelman said.
“Afghanistan will now have a pro-Pakistan government, which will give Pakistan and India’s other major rival, China-a close friend of Pakistan-the opportunity to play more roles in Afghanistan.
“There will also be security risks, because the takeover of the Taliban will inspire regional militants, including anti-Indian terrorist organizations.”
‘Wait and see’
During the first time in power from 1996 to 2001, the Taliban faced international isolation because it was recognized by only three countries-Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
But this time the situation seems to be different, because regional powers such as China, Russia and Iran have indicated that they may cooperate with the Taliban to ensure their interests.
When the Taliban surrounded Kabul, President Ashraf Ghani (right), who had established close relations with New Delhi, fled the country [File: Reuters]The former Indian Foreign Minister Kunwar Natwar Singh said in an interview last week that if the Taliban play a “responsible government” role, New Delhi should establish diplomatic relations with the Taliban.
But Gautam Mukhopadhaya, the former Indian ambassador to Afghanistan, said that the situation is still evolving and everything is still unclear.
“We don’t even have a transitional government [in Afghanistan],” he told Al Jazeera, adding that the Western-backed Islamic Republic of Afghanistan is still the government of the country recognized by the United Nations.
“I think we have to wait and see for the time being.”
However, Kugelman said that India’s only option in Afghanistan is to try again to contact the Taliban because “this may be an unpleasant choice”.
“At the very least, establishing informal ties with the Taliban government will put New Delhi in a better position to ensure that its assets and investments in Afghanistan are not threatened,” he said.
India sees the Taliban as an agent of its main rival, Pakistan, and has close ties with the outgoing government [File: Reuters]
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