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The rift between Saudi Arabia and the UAE that freezes OPEC is a sign of the future

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Riyadh, Saudi Arabia-July 19: (—-Editorial use only-Mandatory credit-“Royal Court of Saudi Arabia/Handout”-No marketing, no advertising campaigns-Distribution as a service to customers—-) United Arab Emirates (UAE) Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (left) meets with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (second from left) during his visit to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on July 19, 2021 ). (Photo from the Royal Court of Saudi Arabia/Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

Dubai, United Arab Emirates-In early July, the unexpected disagreement between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates within OPEC shocked many people in the Gulf region and those looking outside the country.

This The dispute over the level of oil production The group’s ability to make plans for the market was temporarily frozen, leading to an increase in crude oil prices. But experts who have been following the region for a long time said that this is not the first time tensions between Arab neighbors and long-term close allies have emerged, and it may not be the last.

Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a professor of political science in the UAE, told CNBC: “What happened here is that these are the two largest economies in the region, in the Arab world.” “And with Saudi Arabia. Arabs want to reform their economy, privatize, etc., there will inevitably be competition between them.”

“I think the competition between the two largest Arab economies has just begun,” Abdullah said. “And it will definitely intensify in the coming days.”

Conflict of interest

Bahrain’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Abdulatif bin Rashid Al Zayani, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, U.S. President Donald Trump and UAE Minister of Foreign Affairs Abdullah Bin. Zayed Al Nahyan (left to right) attends the signing ceremony of the “normalization of relations” agreement between Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain at the White House in Washington.

White House | Shealah Craighead | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

Dubai, United Arab Emirates-The UAE announced a normalization agreement with Israel last year, becoming the first Gulf country to do so, and Saudi Arabia has so far publicly refused to do so. At the same time, Saudi Arabia has been making preliminary reconciliations with its rival Sunni power Turkey. The relationship between the UAE and Turkey is strained due to Ankara’s support for the Islamic ideology that the UAE leader considers a threat.

The two Gulf countries have some Diversity of interests in the Yemen warAlthough on the same side, the Saudis support an Islamic party that is not trusted by the UAE, while Abu Dhabi supports separatist tribes that are inconsistent with Riyadh’s goals. The UAE reduced its military activities in Yemen in 2019, while Riyadh is still involved in the conflict.

Hussein Ibish, a senior resident scholar at the Institute of Arab Gulf States in Washington, said: “It is generally believed that the worldview and interests of the UAE and Saudi Arabia are practically indistinguishable-the UAE is to some extent Saudi Arabian Attachments or appendages of the country.”, wrote in a blog post in July. “Never before.”

Economic consequences

So, where will things go?

OPEC agreement reached in mid-July, Saudi Arabia and the UAE Energy Ministers praised each other and praised the work of the Group of Petroleum Producing Countries. Nonetheless, economic competition-at a time when oil-producing countries’ returns are extremely volatile-will not disappear anytime soon.

Tobias Bock, a Gulf Affairs researcher at the Royal United Service Institute in London, told CNBC: “We are coming out of this pandemic, and every country in the world needs to find a way to recover its economy.” “But for the Gulf monarchy. Especially for Abu Dhabi and Saudi Arabia, the situation is more complicated because they are also under pressure to find a way to transform their economies and get rid of their dependence on oil.”

“In that environment, frankly, everyone will take care of the first place,” Bok continued. “For all true friendships and continued pragmatic alliances, when it comes to economic issues, the friendship ends at some point and it becomes taking care of yourself.”

“Collision Course”

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