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Turkey, Russia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are doubling down on efforts to rehabilitate Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and shape a decade-long war in his country to the detriment of U.S.-backed forces, Bloomberg News Reportciting its source.
Turkey, which backed the 2011 rebellion against Assad, is now ready to publicly recognize his rule over Syria and work to rebuild diplomatic, security and trade ties, people familiar with Turkey’s position say.
In return, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants Assad to rule out allowing the U.S.-backed Kurdish YPG (People’s Protection Units) to create an autonomous region in the northern part of the country they currently control as part of any future peace part of the deal, the people said.
Erdogan recently floated the idea of meeting Assad on Thursday, after a high-level meeting between Syrian and Turkish officials in Moscow last week.
“We will come together as leaders according to how things develop,” Erdogan said of future meetings with Assad and Putin.
The shift is backed by Assad’s main military allies, Russia and the United Arab Emirates, which have sought to boost Assad’s standing in the Middle East to help balance Iran’s influence in Syria.
Elena Suponina, a Moscow-based Middle East expert, said repairing relations between Turkey and Syria “would be a success for Russia”.
In particular, Ankara’s new partnership with Damascus will strengthen the Kremlin’s role in the Middle East and force Washington to withdraw from its remaining foothold in Syria. “The United States needs to understand that its presence there is unnecessary and unjustified,” Subonina said.
Countries in the region would have been negative about such a settlement a few years ago, but now they are supporting it, which is an important shift, she said.
“Countries in the region today are increasingly acting independently of the United States”
Russian President Vladimir Putin initially proposed Turkey’s repair of relations with Assad when he met Erdogan in Sochi last year. Now Erdogan has taken an interest in such a deal as he runs into elections this summer, the people said, as he seeks to use foreign policy to boost his popularity at home. For Russia, such a deal would help demonstrate that it can successfully challenge U.S. influence in Syria.
“We will not normalize relations with the Assad regime, and we do not support other countries normalizing relations with the Assad regime,” State Department spokesman Ned Price said Thursday when asked about Erdogan. on a possible meeting with Assad.
Erdogan has asked Russia to ensure the safety of Syrian refugees so they can return home after the fighting eases, the people said. He wants to ease the political and economic costs of hosting the world’s largest refugee population, estimated at 3.5 million by the United Nations.
A political deal with Assad could help Erdogan declare victory over the YPG without risking military action and angering the United States, the people said, adding that Russian and Turkish troops are expected to begin fighting Joint patrols in the northern border area of Syria. Syria could also start coordinated patrols there in the future.
YPG and allied fighters in northern Syria bordering Turkey, backed by the United States, control an estimated one-third of Syria’s territory. Ankara sees the YPG as a threat because of its links to an illegal Kurdish group that has sought autonomy in Turkey for decades. The Syrian government also opposes any form of eventual Kurdish autonomy in Syria.
The foreign ministers of Turkey, Russia and Syria are expected to meet this month to discuss the decade-long conflict and how to align their interests, the people said.
As part of a flurry of diplomatic activity surrounding Syria, the UAE foreign minister met Assad in Damascus on Wednesday and reiterated his support for a political solution to the conflict.
The wealthy Gulf state has grown closer to Assad, with the Syrian president visiting the country last year, his first visit to an Arab country since the war began. It was one of the strongest signs that Gulf leaders who had initially backed the rebellion against him were ready to welcome Damascus back to the Arab state.
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