UAV and F-35 fighter jet deal become the focus of Dubai Airshow

Dubai, United Arab Emirates – At this year’s Dubai Air Show, cutting-edge technology and geopolitics will become a major feature of military transactions. For the United States and its Gulf allies, especially the United Arab Emirates, some arms sales-or lack of arms sales-are the main sticking point.

Fighter fleet upgrades and new anti-UAS (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Systems) technologies may be the main themes of this industry exhibition, especially considering the increase in drone attacks in the region in recent years.

But many people will be concerned about whether the Trump administration’s previous agreements to sell certain US weapon systems to the UAE will actually be realized — these agreements have been stagnant since the Biden administration came to power.

The sales in question are the coveted Lockheed Martin F-35 II Joint Strike Fighter and General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper drone, which, if completed, will mark the first time an F-35 and US-made armed drone Sold to any Arab country in the United States.

Richard Aboulafia, vice president of analysis at Teal Group, told CNBC in advance: “The UAE’s demand for F-35 fighter jets has been outstanding for a long time, but you know, it’s full of them. Complex situation.” show.

The deal was signed on January 20, the last day of Donald Trump’s tenure. It was sold to the UAE for up to 23 billion U.S. dollars, most of which consisted of 50 F-35 jets and at least 18 armed drones. composition.

Previously, US export regulations prohibited Washington from selling deadly drones to any of its Arab allies. The sale of F-35s to the Gulf Desert Emirate was initially impossible because the United States has a legal obligation to retain Israel’s most advanced weapons sales in order to maintain Israel’s “quality military advantage” in the Middle East.

But after the signing of the Abraham Agreement between Israel and the UAE in August 2020, everything changed, relations normalized and pave the way for cooperation and trade in almost all areas. The Trump administration relaxed export restrictions on armed drones in July 2020, allowing certain drones-including the deadly Reaper-to be sold to friendly Arab countries.

What is driving this change? Defense experts say that geopolitics and competition.

Charles Forrester, senior defense industry analyst at IHS Jane’s, stated that Washington “is trying to understand the reality of the current global unmanned system environment.”

He emphasized a point that many US industry leaders have warned against: Losing market share to China, China has been selling its own armed drones to Arab countries including the UAE.

“The Trump administration… realizes that if they don’t adjust their policies, their power, influence, and technological space will lose to China,” Forrest said.

When asked in which aerospace sector China attracts Gulf customers the most, Aboulafia of the Teal Group said: “Oh, there is no doubt that it is a drone. Absolutely. Drones, drones, drones. .You know, there is no such thing No longer a passive platform. Everything is absorbing data. So this is a real problem.“

The UAE and some of its neighbors have been buying Chinese-made pterosaur armed drones, but these purchases have also brought challenges. Apart from some performance issues, Chinese technology cannot be integrated with UAE command and control systems because these systems are designed by American companies.

“They are not interoperable. This is very important,” Forrester said. “But the UAE is still using them. Despite this, they have been able to make the most of them because they have no other choice.”

At the beginning of his presidency, Biden announced a review of large-scale arms deals with the UAE, and then in April said it could continue to sell. But shortly thereafter, progress once again stalled, reportedly because the United States was worried about the growing relationship between the UAE and China.

Industry experts said that the Biden government has been pressing the UAE to remove China’s Huawei technology from its telecommunications network and abandon its other Chinese weapon technologies because Washington believes they will bring security to the U.S.’s technology in the country. And espionage risk. As early as 2020, a report by the Pentagon stated that China “is probably already considering and planning to build additional overseas military logistics facilities in the UAE and other countries.”

The UAE government has denied these concerns. Its ambassador to the United States, Yousef al-Otaiba, said in a statement earlier this year: China has served with the U.S. military and has served in the UAE for many years, where it has deployed a wide range of sensitive U.S. military assets.”

The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment.

According to reports, negotiations are underway, and there have been a lot of repeated discussions on how the deal should progress. The current transaction will allow F-35 jets to be delivered to the UAE beginning in 2027; China’s stronger presence in the UAE may be delayed indefinitely.