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In recent weeks, Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin have issued various warnings to the West that they are prepared to use nuclear weapons in the conflict if provoked.
That has sparked fearful discussions in the West about an escalation that could have global consequences.
However, Ian Bond, a foreign policy expert from the Centre for European Reform think tank, said the West needs to stop – and it sounds – scared.
This is what he told Doomsday Watch Podcast:
“Nothing irritates Putin more than weakness, so the more the West says ‘we’re afraid Russia might use nuclear weapons’, the more likely Putin will continue to threaten to use nuclear weapons – and maybe even use one or two to prove he’s serious .”
Bond said the message that could be passed on privately to Russia should be “please understand that if you go nuclear, we’ll think the gloves are off”.
While acknowledging that no one can “absolutely rule out” the use of nuclear weapons by Russia, he outlined the evidence from the conflict so far that Putin is not going there…
“Not only did the Russians not respond to the attack on Crimea in any special way, but even on the absolutely indisputable territory of Belgorod Oblast – there was a strike in Ukraine, and the Russians did not respond in any special way Different ways to respond to this.
“We should stop frightening ourselves with bogie guys, if the Ukrainians drive the Russians out, the Russians will use nukes, I just don’t believe it.”
Bond also noted that the Russians face a problem as the war continues, despite the partial mobilization announced last month.
“Just sending a lot of people with rusted rifles into battle is not going to work. There are supposedly measures to allow the Russian defense industry to increase production, but over the past 30 years the Russian Ministry of Defense has become quite dependent on foreign parts, foreign machine tools.
“It’s not easy for Putin to increase the production of equipment. So you get older and older kits out of warehouses, it takes more and more time to get into any condition of use, and it’s not going to be a deal with NATO to Ukraine More modern weapons on offer to match.”
Bond said the question then becomes: Can Mr Putin get weapons from another country?
We know that Russia has been buying drones for Iran. Bond said they were already “useful” in disrupting facilities in Odessa, but he doubted they would be “a game changer.”
“Will the Chinese intervene? So far, they have been reluctant to be directly involved in this conflict.
“I don’t think this mobilization will be a game changer. It will prolong the war, it will increase casualties on both sides, especially on the Russian side. But will Putin make a decisive breakthrough in Kyiv by sending another 100,000 people? Machine? No, I don’t think he is.
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