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It started in Saudi Arabia. President Biden received a lukewarm greeting during his visit to Riyadh last July. The Saudis then chose China as their mediator for a rapprochement with Iran. No one from Washington or Brussels was in the room for the two arch-rivals to shake hands. Next up is the United Arab Emirates, forbes notes.
Around the world and in the Gulf region, it is known for Dubai and Etihad Airways. The country, like Saudi Arabia, has taken inspiration from the United States in many ways in the past. Today, however, Abu Dhabi will act in the collective interest of the UAE, and if that means it has to disagree or break with the US on issues of geopolitical significance, so be it.
Last summer, Biden invited UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed (MBZ) to Washington. The fact that the visit has still not taken place is a sign of difficulties in relations between the UAE and the Biden administration.
Dr. Theodore Karasik, Senior Advisor at Gulf State Analytics, said: “It is highly unlikely that the President of the UAE will visit DC as political tensions between them, particularly with China and Russia, are growing and evolving and have long been simmering. In “Washington, DC,” the UAE has a particular Khaleeji view (meaning ‘from the Gulf’) that mimics their worldview and is closer in vision to Eastern countries than Western countries. The UAE sees policy issues differently , patience is the key, not instant gratification,” he said. “They will wait to see what happens because the politics are constantly changing (in the U.S. and Europe). But The West is no longer a role model“
America’s leverage over its regional partners is being tested. Observers in the developing world need only consider the failure of the United States to enforce sanctions against Russia as a key indicator. The UAE provides another example of a general “disengagement” from Western leadership.
Over the past few months, high-level parades in the US, UK and EU official Has traveled to Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, to fill one of the biggest loopholes in the sanctions regime against Russia. UAE electronics parts exports to Russia up sevenfold in past year. Compared with 2021, the UAE’s microchip exports to Russia will increase by 15 times in 2022, and the UAE sold 158 drones to Russia last year. Sanctions in Washington have restricted all of these projects.
The UAE occupies an entirely different place on the list of U.S. allies’ priorities. “Washington, D.C. is frustrated with the UAE’s role in making Russian businesses and capital home to sanctions, despite acknowledgments that neither the UAE nor the Saudis will bow to pressure to take sides,” said middleman Christian Coates-Ulrich Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, East Research Fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute, said. “Everyone is adjusting to a new normal in which the relationship between the two countries is more nonaligned than ever.”
Washington has made clear that enforcing the sanctions is a policy imperative. The Undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence at the Ministry of Finance has singled out the UAE for its “poor sanctions compliance”. In the past six months, the U.S. government has sanctioned at least three Emirati entities involved in illicit trade with Russia.
“That said, the UAE and other Gulf states are committed to adapting to what they see as the realities of a permanently multipolar world,” said Matthew Levitt, director of the Reinhard Counterterrorism and Intelligence Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “They view the United States as their preferred security partner, but want close ties with China and Russia, and refuse to view these relationships in binary terms.”
What’s more, the UAE is the fourth-largest recipient of U.S. arms transfers, both commercially and politically, after Saudi Arabia, Australia, and South Korea. Since 2009, the UAE has been the No. 1 export market for U.S. goods in the Middle East. The U.S. has the sixth-largest trade surplus with the UAE, an impressive figure considering the U.S. runs deficits with almost every country. UAE capital accounted for about $45 billion in investment flows to the US in 2020
“If the U.S. really wants the Russian sanctions to go into effect, then it cannot relax on the UAE,” said a retired diplomat who did not want to be quoted on the record.
“If President Biden and his team are really as tough on Russia as they say they are, they seem to have to be ready for tough diplomacy with the UAE over its relationship with Russia. That’s a hawkish view,” speculated Forbes.
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