Why Vladimir Putin’s new Russia ‘return to Asia’ will fail

Since the invasion of Moscow, the same EU countries have been trying to part ways with Moscow on their energy policies. Ukraine In February, it instead strengthens ties with Asia.

“The role of countries in the Asia-Pacific region … has increased significantly,” Putin said at a forum in Russia’s Pacific port city of Vladivostok, adding that Asia “offers huge new opportunities for our people”.

Russia’s latest updated naval doctrine, released on August 31, also aims to strengthen its military presence in the East.

sanction biting

The Russian economy has been hit hard by international sanctions imposed earlier this year, although the government estimates it will contract by only 3% in 2022.

“Positioning Russia as a source of energy, resources, defence equipment and, in some cases, nuclear technology, is both a geopolitical imperative and a A real desire.” , a think tank.

Another failed pivot?

Analysts believe Putin’s latest pivot will be as unsuccessful as his 2012 tilt toward Asia, dubbed Moscow’s “pivot to the East” policy.

“I would say another failure because Russia doesn’t have much to offer the region, strategically or economically,” said Joshua Kurantsk, a senior fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi After attending a regional summit with Putin in Uzbekistan last week, Moscow said it needed to “take the path of peace.” Putin has publicly acknowledged that Chinese President Xi Jinping has “questions and concerns” about the war.

Commentators argue that since the invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has made itself Beijing’s “little buddy”.

Russia’s Asian pivot has achieved little since 2012. Bilateral trade with Japan peaked at $33.2 billion (€33.2 billion) in 2013, but fell to just $20.8 billion in 2021.

Trade with South Korea will increase to $27.3 billion in 2021, but Russia accounts for just over 2 percent of South Korea’s total. Both West-biased Asian countries have aggressively pledged to impose Western sanctions, crippling their trade with Russia this year.

neutrality towards Ukraine

Singapore has imposed its own unilateral sanctions on Russia due to the Ukrainian invasion, the only Southeast Asian country to do so.

Under the first pivot, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in 2018 upgraded its relationship with Russia to a “strategic partnership” four years after Russia “annexed” Crimea, which is part of Ukraine. However, ASEAN-Russia trade has grown from $18.2 billion in 2012 to only about $20 billion in 2021.

This pales in comparison to ASEAN’s trade with China ($878 billion) and the United States ($441.7 billion) in 2021. Taiwan The value is almost four times that of Russia.

While most Southeast Asian nations have tried to remain neutral in the Ukrainian war, even Russia’s traditional friends have grown lukewarm. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Russia has been the main provider of military equipment in the region since 1990.

Exports plummet

In August, the Philippines cancelled a contract to buy 16 Russian military helicopters, allegedly under pressure from the United States.

Vietnam – which bought four-fifths of its military equipment from Russia between 1995 and 2021 – fears it could violate the US’s Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), which threatens to impose sanctions on any Russian purchases Weapons countries impose sanctions.

Leading Asian importers of Russian military goods had turned away before the Ukraine war. According to a recent SIPRI report, Russian arms exports to India and Vietnam fell by 47% and 71% respectively between 2012-16 and 2017-21.

limited success

One exception is the military junta that now controls limited areas of Myanmar. Russia has been the junta’s main international donor since the February 2021 coup, providing arms, aid and cheap energy.

Hunter Marston, a researcher and analyst at the Australian National University in Canberra, said: “Myanmar’s military junta has embraced the Putin regime with open arms as a partner in avoiding over-reliance on Beijing, but the ‘alliance’ is built on mutual despair and mutual above authoritarian political systems.” .

If junta leader Min Aung Hlaing or Putin lose their grip on power, the Myanmar-Russia relationship could suffer a major setback, Marston said, “so the relationship is not sustainable at this point.”

booming energy

Frederick Kliem, a research fellow and lecturer at the Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said no ASEAN member state “sees an economic future with Russia” except for Myanmar under the junta.

However, he added that one area where Russia could win some friends is energy cooperation. While many Asian countries are debating whether to develop nuclear power generation, their investments in renewable energy are booming.

In July, the Indonesian government said it was considering a Russian proposal to develop a nuclear power plant. In the same month, NovaWind, a subsidiary of Russian energy giant Rosatom, signed an agreement with Vietnam to develop a 128-megawatt wind farm, its first overseas project.

fight for allies

Asian imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) have increased since the war in Ukraine began. For example, Japan’s imports rose 211% in August compared to a year earlier. The Indonesian government, not your usual importer of Russian gas, said this week it was considering imports to offset soaring energy costs.

But analysts doubt this is Russia’s long-term strategy, as many Asian countries have simply increased their imports of Russian gas, whose prices are at historic lows due to Western sanctions. Those rates may not stay this low for long, though.

because of the spiral inflationShada Islam, an independent analyst on Eurasian relations, said Asian governments are eager to end the Russia-Ukraine war amid fears of food insecurity and rising living costs.

“However, this does not mean that governments and peoples in the region have any illusions about the real geostrategic reasons behind Putin’s renewed courtship of Asia as he seeks allies in his battle with the West,” she added.

“Most Asian countries have learned the hard way to avoid being used as pawns of so-called great powers on the geopolitical chessboard. Russia’s latest ‘pivot’ to Asia is no more tedious than its last tedious attempt to boost its competitiveness in the region. success.”