[ad_1]
China issued a white paper on Wednesday that effectively said it would occupy Taiwan by force if necessary, even as it completed a 10-day live-fire exercise involving about 370 various fighter jets and 14 warships to intimidate Taipei and Forcing neighboring countries to submit through their “shock and awe” tactics.
The war dance around Taiwan has been accompanied by several countries including Russia, Iran, Pakistan and Cambodia parroting the “One China” policy, and during House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to me, Beijing’s wolf warriors are wary of anyone perceived to be on Taiwan’s side. People who carry out nasty diplomatic shots – manage the island nation. Without any subtle diplomacy, China’s statement was like the shouting and diatribe of a global bully.
The People’s Liberation Army has now ended the war game simulating occupation of Taiwan, but has pledged to monitor the entire island by conducting air and sea patrols in the Taiwan Strait, which separates Taiwan from the mainland, through frequent air and sea combat patrols.
The entire region, including pacifist Japan and South Korea, has been on edge for the past 10 days, but the big question is will President Xi Jinping order his forces to capture Taiwan in the near future, or is the white paper just a diplomatic gesture? There is no easy answer to this question, but a cost-benefit analysis by top national security experts suggests that China’s military takeover of Taiwan is easier said than done.
US President Joe Biden stated on May 22, 2022 that the United States is committed to militarily defending Taiwan from Chinese attack, so it is reasonable to speculate that a full-scale war is very likely if President Xi decides to woo Taipei by force. While Taiwan will certainly be destroyed in the battle against Red Giant, China’s eastern seaboard, which contributes significantly to Beijing’s economic power, will also be hit hard by Taiwan’s Yufeng and Xiongfeng II E land-attack cruise missiles. The question is whether China can afford to have its coastal cities hit by Taiwanese missiles, as this would have serious implications for its economic growth if factories were destroyed by missiles.
Any Chinese move to seize Taiwan will result in economic retaliation from the US and its allies, leaving even a pacifist Japan with no choice but to abandon its pacifism. Chinese investment in U.S. government securities will be frozen by Washington, and Western countries may recognize Taiwan by abandoning the “One China” policy. Until then, Capitol Hill will pass the Taiwan Defense Act of 2021, which aims to preserve the ability of the U.S. Armed Forces to deny the People’s Republic of China’s fait accompli against Taiwan. The bill was introduced in the U.S. Senate on June 16, 2021, and has been submitted to the Armed Services Committee.
China’s military action against Taiwan will not only push Japan into a state of military emergency, it will also invite the powerful U.S. navy into the theater, and when the red flag is raised, ASEAN nations will be forced to take sides. If backed by U.S. military forces in the region, Taiwan would be a formidable force, as industrial cities and missile parks along its eastern seaboard would be targets for submarine-launched ballistic missiles. With the principle of mutual assurance prevailing within hours of the battle, can China afford to stick an island in order to satisfy the ego of the Eternal Leader.
When the whole of China is shrouded under a bamboo curtain and President Xi Jinping rules the mainland with an iron fist, disturbing voices begin to come from China, as part of the leadership within the Communist Party believes that a wolf warrior in China’s diplomacy and military will lead the country into economic turmoil disaster. The much-touted Belt and Road initiative has all but ground to a halt, with questions from top leadership, despite nearly a trillion dollars of investment from Beijing and open accusations by recipient countries of China for trapping them in debt. Economic crises in Chinese client countries such as Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Myanmar, Kenya, and others have come on the heels of the catastrophic economic impact of the global coronavirus pandemic that originated in Wuhan, China.
There is also evidence that the Chinese public disagrees with President Xi’s zero-virus policy, which has led to mass closures of towns and cities, resulting in food shortages and delayed end-of-month wages.
As President Xi Jinping is re-elected for a third term later this year, the new military chauvinism over Taiwan could work against him. The Chinese Communist Party has flexed its military might in Taiwan over the past 10 days to appease domestic audiences, but further intensification could lead the PLA into uncharted waters in the Indo-Pacific. Losing face in Taiwan is not the legacy that eternal leader Xi Jinping wants to leave to future generations.
[ad_2]
Source link